Betfair’s internal team of Data Scientists have created an EPL Predictions Model. The EPL model automatically pulls data dating back to 2001 and utilises features such as average corners, shots on target and more intricate features like a margin weighted ELO ranking, market values based on position and ELO weighted goals for/against.
You’ll often notice discrepancies between the EPL odds on the Betfair Exchange and the probabilities.
Currently, the model doesn’t include player data as features, but in future iterations, this will be included. The full code for the model will be put on GitHub soon, so watch this space.
