Ellerslie, Saturday 4th March 2017 – New Zealand Derby

Current Track Rating: Dead 5

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.metservice.com

Friday 3rd – Max 23c. Sunny.

Saturday 4th – Max 23c. Partly cloudy.

R9 New Zealand Derby G1 3YO SW 2400m

Major Players

1. Sacred Elixir: Third up heading into a 2400m even is generally not ideal but we need to remember that he was able to run a 2.5L second to Prized Icon in the Victoria Derby only fourth during the Spring. He was only 90 days between runs heading into his first up run so there will be residual fitness heading into Saturdays event. Having said that he is well found and well priced off his Group 1 placing in Australia so I believe there is more value away from him.

2. Savile Row: The race favourite has followed a traditional path heading into the NZ Derby, now seventh up. He took on the older horses 19 days ago and was only narrowly beaten by the well-performed Volkstok’n’barrell over 2000m. He was strong through the line and the step up to 2400m now looks ideal. Race fit and looking to peak for a final time this campaign. Given the SP of the winner of the Avondale Guineas (Gingernuts $31) it would appear that Savile Row has the much stronger formlines heading into this race.

5. Highlad: Started the $5 second elect to the favoruite Sacred Elixir in the Avondale Guineas. Despite failing on that occasion I would suggested the $41 which is available with some bookmakers will offer and us a nice little ‘back to lay’ scenario.

7. Gingernuts: With an SP of $30 on the exchange last start, Gingernuts was not expected to do much in the Group 2 Avondale Guineas. He was slowly away on that occasion and despite these two negative factors was able to saved ground on the ben and run away from a convincing victory over the likes of Sacred Elixir. A horse winning at such big odds can often be a ‘pot’ on the race but you can’t deny Gingernuts’ style. He should drift based on his previous SP and is worth saving on at a silly price.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Savile Row to win 5 units at $3 or more

 BACK (WIN) Gingernuts to win 2.5 units at $10 or more

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