Melbourne bookmaker Fred Watts, 57, has been fielding for 33 years and sees Betfair as the most significant change in betting heās seen in that time; generally, a boom to him and a something of a Godsend to all.
BETFAIR BETTING EXCHANGE: A PLUS FOR EVERYONE
āI think itās been a plus for everybody. It helps the average punter even if he doesnāt bet with Betfair as it both forces, on occasions, and allows bookmakers to bet a much lower percentage. Weād be as low as 105 per cent these days on some races in town which is a lot, lot lower than the old days and I reckon Betfair is the single reason why you will still find bookies on track at bush meetings.
āAnd the Betfair market tends to tell a more accurate story than any other. I think itās 99 per cent influenced by the big punters. It becomes pretty obvious when the ārightā money is on. And, for me, I know I can lay a horse on track to say the owners and know that I will be able to lay off if required on Betfair.
āYou can still lay off to some degree on the tote and with other bookies but thatās become harder and harder especially if youāre fielding at a small meeting,ā Watts said.
BENEFITS FOR ON COURSE BOOKMAKERS
Thirty plus years of fielding at around 200 meetings per year is a telling schedule pursuing something which is not always āa licence to print moneyā as most punters imagine.
In Wattsās case, he estimates the cost of running his business would be around $120,000 per year and says he was treading water a lot of the time before the advent of Betfair. And starting $120,000 behind was even with the economy of he and his partner Jodie working 80-90 per cent of the meetings. āItās just me and her most of the time,ā he said.
He also says he could save money buying his own computer system but thatās too great a risk in this technological, Betfair age. āYou canāt be off line so youāve got to have the guaranteed and immediate back up which comes with hiring which costs about $30,000 a year,ā he said.
āThe fundamentals of bookmaking havenāt changed. Thereās still no point laying the 6/1 pops if you canāt lay the 6/4 favourite and you can still get caught. They backed one quick and late at a recent Pakenham meeting and I just had to stand itā¦. but the opportunities and the markets across the board are wider and Iām happy to say Iāve done well since Betfair came in.
āI was right into it six months after it came in and perhaps I saw the potential sooner than a few others. Before Betfair, I was working off the rails and struggling to increase my hold but it began to build and Iād say within 12 months it had multiplied by about five from $1-2 million to $7-8 million,ā he said.
COMPETITION ON THE COURSE
āThis financial year has been tough. Iām sure as hell hoping itās a one off,ā he jokes before adding that, āthereās much less money on the ground and the cash on course isnāt what it used to be.ā
Watts knows the āused to beā having started 33 years ago when, at 24, he was one of the youngest bookmakers in the State and graduated quickly from the picnics to the country to Melbourne and eventually to the rails. āFrom memory, then you had to have $30,000 to get your licence and I think I managed to sock away the āliving away allowanceā I was getting at the time working for Telstra,ā he said.
Heās still happy to return to the bush but provides an interesting perspective to the biggest of the ābushā meetings, Warrnambool in May.
āItās very competitive down there. Youāve got 18 strong bookies on the rails at Warrnambool, thereās only 17 on the rails on Melbourne Cup day. Your expenses are higher and I only just won there this year but Iāll admit it can be a goldmine for many of the āsmallerā bookies if the results fall the right way,ā he said.
MITIGATING RISK
Speaking of the (Melbourne) Cup, Watts says that Prince Of Penzance winning at 100/1 could have been a disaster but for Betfair. āI laid $200 each way to at least two punters on track and it was my worst result before I backed it to win $50,000 on Betfair at around 120 -130/1,ā he said.
Watts might be described as a touch āold schoolā given that he still bothers to do the form rather than rely exclusively on market intelligence. āIād probably spend three hours a meeting doing the form ā perhaps a bit less in town ā but coupled with physically operating at the meetings, it is pretty time consuming,ā he said.
And, of course, there is the obvious degree of pressure handling significant transactions. And that all spilled over at Ballarat earlier this year when RVL stewards fined him for āconducting himself in such a manner that was āaggressive and loudā towards a club official.ā
āYes, there was a bit of an altercation at Ballarat. I donāt think I did the wrong thing. Honestly, it was an impossible work place. The noise was deafening from the PA while Iām trying to answer phones, take huge bets and deal with the on-course punters. I just wanted the PA turned downā¦,ā he said.
THREE STEPS TO IMPROVE YOUR PUNTING
Watts has three key points of advice for those looking to improve their punting:
- Always explore the opportunities of the early odds. Iām always happy to lay one at, say, $2.50 on Thursday night if you are confident it will get out in the betting on race day.
- If youāve missed the price, donāt bet. Punters are inclined to think all the big shorteners win but not enough of them do win to justify being on at the bottom price.
- Remember that where thereās smoke thereās fire. Look at horses who were well backed last start who didnāt necessarily win; was there a reason, were they unlucky?