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HOT MARKETS: US ELECTION TIGHTENS UP

US Presidential Election – $26,918,710.42

The US Masters has been the big mover this week, leaping into the top 5 markets on the Exchange in the countdown to Augusta.

$4.2 million now sits in matched bets on the pinnacle golf event on the calendar.

The busiest overall market on the Exchange platform right now is the winner of the US Presidential Election, scheduled for November.

This activity will only increase as we run towards the polls, with the current numbers already staggering.

The top market is the “Election Winner market” which holds just over $27 million currently. To provide perspective on what is likely to come this year, Betfair held over a Billion dollars on the previous election. So expect a flood of activity.

Trump had been the clear favourite for most of the last six months, but it is almost back to level pegging now. Trump is marginal favourite at $2.32 with Biden at $2.38. Forget the rest!

We also have more than $15 million matched on the Democratic nominee winner, with over $12 million on the seemingly sewn up Republican race, with these two markets currently third and fourth overall.

Wedged between all of those is the race for the English Premier League title which has nearly $16 million matched on it at the moment as we tick towards the final handful of games for most sides.

The Top 4 race and the Relegation battle both have nearly $2 million in matched volume, with top 10 finish ($925,000) and the winner of the Championship ($793,000) also very popular.

The other market that continues to rise is the AFL Premiership race which holds $533,000 in matched volume currently. This market sits 12th but will be a constant presence over the coming months.

BIGGEST OVERNIGHT CHANGE

Seven of the top ten markets overnight were Premier League matchups. Crystal Palace at home to Man City and Man United’s clash with Chelsea both took over $8 million in matched bets.

New Zealand’s clash with England in a Women’s ODI took nearly $8 million as well.

Behind that we had more soccer with the Serie A in Italy and the Bundeslegia in Germany very busy, including nearly $5 million matched on Udinese and Inter Milan the biggest of those.

Another popular market was the closing stages of the Texas Open golf which saw nearly $2 million matched ahead of that final round.

HOTTEST AUSTRALIAN MARKETS

The AFL Premiership race has shot straight to the top of the Australian markets and by quite some margin.

Just over half a million dollars has been matched on the premiership race, which is dwarfing the second most prolific market.

The Top 8 market is a distant second at $99,700 with the Top 4 in sixth place at $27,100. Interestingly, the Rising Star and Coleman Medal markets have also jumped into the top ten over the past fortnight.

The next federal election (2025) sits third with just over $62,500 in matched volume currently.

This weekend’s finals shaping A-League clash between Melbourne City and Perth Glory sits in the top five already with nearly $40,000 matched on the blockbuster.

This weekend’s AFL matches have been curious affairs also…with seven of the eight matches holding between $5 and $10,000 in matched volume. The one exception is Sunday’s fairly lopsided looking contest between Geelong and North Melbourne which holds nearly $20,000 at this point.

The Queen Elizabeth, Sydney Cup and Australian Oaks on Saturday at Randwick are already climbing the list of local markets this week.

BIGGEST UNMATCHED BETS

The next Federal election isn’t until next year, but we have several unmatched bets on the outcome, with the biggest being quite substantial!

There is a bet of nearly $3500 sitting unmatched on Labor to retain office.

The Coalition themselves have unmatched bets of $240, $120 and $105 on them as well. At the $2.65 they are currently priced.

Race 11 at the Mandurah Greyhounds tonight has some unusually large bets waiting to be matched. Dog number seven Danny Heffernan has $256 and $140 waiting to be matched.

The Tasmanian State Election still has some residual betting activity, given the hung parliament that followed.

WHAT IS A HOT MARKET?

A hot market covers markets with high liquidity, but also markets that standout in direct comparison with similar markets within the same sport or on the same race card.

For example overseas sporting events such as golf tournaments, test cricket, major tennis events or world cups will always attract high liquidity due to the large viewership.

These markets are still fascinating to watch because any movements in price are quite significant. With a matched volume of $20 million on a result, any shortening in price on one player or runner will be very significant as it will take a lot to move that price. This current US Presidential election is evidence of that.

Donald Trump continues to shorten despite the matched volume which suggests a large percentage of that volume is heading towards him.

When it comes to the direct comparison across sports you might have five AFL games on the one day. four of them have a matched volume of $18,000 but the other one is at $245,000. This is significant market activity and something that is important to draw focus to and point to what is drawing that interest as a way of better educating punters.

Not all bets on the Exchange will be matched, and this is another area of focus. Large bets put up on results that don’t get matched can tell readers just as much as the above example on AFL markets.

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