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BETFAIR: HOT MARKETS

US Presidential Election – $21,750,211.29

The hottest market on the Exchange platform right now is the winner of the US Presidential Election, scheduled for November.

This activity will only increase as we run towards the polls, with the current numbers already staggering.

The top market is the “Election Winner market” which holds over $21.7 million currently. (including nearly $1 million over the weekend). To provide perspective on what is likely to come this year, Betfair held over a Billion dollars on the previous election. So expect a flood of activity.

63% of that volume has come for Donald Trump, with his price continuing to shorten despite his eligibility challenges in some US States.

We also have $13 million matched on the Democratic nominee winner and a similar volume on the Republican race, with these two markets currently third and fourth overall.

Wedged between all of those is the race for the English Premier League title which has $13.5 million matched on it at the moment as we tick well into the second half of the season.

The Top 4 race and the Relegation battle both have over $1.6 million in matched volume, with top 10 finish ($840,000) and the winner of the Championship ($650,000) also very popular.

The top 16 matched markets are either the US Election or English football, with the NBA Title race coming in at 17th ($350,000).

 

BIGGEST OVERNIGHT CHANGE

The popularity of test cricket on the Exchange is extraordinary.

Yesterday saw the conclusion of the fourth test between India and England with India taking an unassailable 3-1 series lead after their 5-wicket victory.

$18 million was taken overnight on the result of that match we took the total volume for the test to $49 million.

Overnight also saw $1.9 million taken on Liverpool’s EPL clash with with Luton, as well as $1.2 million for Man City v Brentford and $761,000 for Arsenal v Newcastle.

The winner of the PGA Tour event in Mexico also attracted $1.8 million in overnight activity as that tournament came to a close.

Tennis as well as more football across Spain, Italy and Germany took a lot of interest as well.

HOTTEST AUSTRALIAN MARKETS

The biggest local market currently is the Australian Federeal Election (2025), which has $61,000 in matched volume currently.

The late mover here has been the NRL Premiership race which has picked up $30,000 of matched volume over the last week, moving it into second overall.

The A League continues to be popular with punters, with the Phoenix home clash with Adelaide this weekend currently sitting above $24,000 in volume.

The outright market for the NBL Title has moved a bit in the last week, with $19,000 now sitting in matched volume as we reach the pointy end.

The Dunkley By-election in politics has also popped up over the last week with $7,100 sitting in matched volume for that result.

BIGGEST UNMATCHED BETS

All of the leading unmatched bets currently sit on the above mentioned Dunkley By-election.

The biggest unmatched individual bet sits at $3351 currently, with others at $500, $300 and $100.

We have a smattering of unmatched bets around Mildura Harness tonight, but not to the level of what is outlined for Dunkley.

 

WHAT IS A HOT MARKET?

A hot market covers markets with high liquidity, but also markets that standout in direct comparison with similar markets within the same sport or on the same race card.

For example overseas sporting events such as golf tournaments, test cricket, major tennis events or world cups will always attract high liquidity due to the large viewership.

These markets are still fascinating to watch because any movements in price are quite significant. With a matched volume of $20 million on a result, any shortening in price on one player or runner will be very significant as it will take a lot to move that price. This current US Presidential election is evidence of that.

Donald Trump continues to shorten despite the matched volume which suggests a large percentage of that volume is heading towards him.

When it comes to the direct comparison across sports you might have five AFL games on the one day. four of them have a matched volume of $18,000 but the other one is at $245,000. This is significant market activity and something that is important to draw focus to and point to what is drawing that interest as a way of better educating punters.

Not all bets on the Exchange will be matched, and this is another area of focus. Large bets put up on results that don’t get matched can tell readers just as much as the above example on AFL markets.

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