DP World Tour Championship: Final Round Preview

Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 15-18th Nov


Weather Report

Sunday – 29 Degrees, Sunny, Precipitation 0%, Humidity 58%, Wind 27km/h


Leaderboard after Day 3

T1 Danny Willett -14
T1 Patrick Reed -14
T3 Jordan Smith -13
T4 Dean Burmester -12
T4 Matt Wallace -12
T4 Lee Westwood -12
T7 Tom Lewis -11
T7 Adrian Otaegui -11


Round by Round Summary

Round 1 Summary

Great to see a couple of rough chances leading the DP World Tour Championship in Adrian Otaegui and Jordan Smith. As mentioned in the pre-tournament article, you can back a few players at high odds in a small man field and you only need one of them to have a good start and you can “lay” off and get your stake back and then have a few free going to massive results.

As was the case with Adrian Otaegui who started at the event at odds in the “hundreds” and got into as low as $40. Danny Willett is returning to some form of late, shooting a solid 5 under par round, and defending champion Jon Rahm is right there also. Race to Dubai leader Francesco Molinari started well with a 4 under par round.

Round 2 Summary

Matt Wallace hit the lead after Day 2 of the DP World Tour Championship, Matt has had a brilliant year and arguably should have played Ryder Cup. Matt is proving to be a very strong player when in contention and would have to be one of the fancied players now that he has hit the front at the halfway point.

Matt is closely followed by Danny Willet and Adrian Otaegui. Danny is quickly regaining his form, as mentioned in recent articles and is a player to follow, and Adrian Otaegui is surprising many placing himself in a strong contending position.

Round 3 Summary

Danny Willet continues to play well and now leads the tournament with Patrick Reed heading into the final round. They are both on 14 under par. It’s a packed leaderboard and anyone of the top 10 players could still win the tournament.

My preference would be leading towards Danny Willett from Patrick Reed from Matt Wallace and Lee Westwood. Henrik Stenson is usually very strong in the Middle East and has tasted past success at this event. It will take a special round to win, but he is capable of it. Maybe some value in Henrik for a Top 5 finish.


In-Play Betting for the Final Round

Here are some trading suggestions:

A lot of the players in contention are averaging a high number of fairways hit and greens in regulation, it could be a difficult tournament to “lay” tee shots. It’s a low scoring event and the Par 5’s could be a good in-play strategy, as a lot of birdies will be made on these holes. Place a “back” bet on the tee or fairway and “lay” once the hole is completed.

Having a looking at the tournament statistics, I noticed that a lot of players a struggling to get a high up and down rate from the sand this week. If you notice one of the leaders placing their shots into the sand, it could be a good “lay” to “re-back” strategy.


Betting Strategy

Below are some bets to consider, you may also want to read the in-play betting notes as well

I’m happy to “Lay” Reed at the low odds, it’s a bunched leaderboard and I think he is too short in the market for the depth of players on the leaderboard chasing.

 LAY – Patrick Read at $3.25 for 2 unit

 BACK – Matt Wallace Top 5 at $2.40 for 1 Unit

 BACK – Henrick Stenson Top 5 at $4.00 for 1 Unit

 


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