Event and Course Details

Jumeirah Golf Estates is arguably one of the world’s most prestigious residential golf developments comprising a collection of individually designed homes set amongst a truly breathtaking landscape and enclosed with a secure gated community.

 The DP World Tour Championship is played on the Earth Course and designed by Greg Norman. Inspired by the great parkland courses of Europe and North America, sets the scene for an incredible experience. The rolling fairways, brilliant white bunkering and deep red ochre landscape are framed by a plethora of trees and shrubs making each hole picture perfect.


Weather Report

Thursday – Partly Sunny, 34 Degrees, Precipitation 1%, Humidity 42%, Wind 6km/h

Friday – Sunny, 34 Degrees, Precipitation 1%, Humidity 42%, Wind 15km/h


Past Winners and Runners Up

Year Winner Country Score To par Margin of victory Runner(s)-up
2017 Jon Rahm  Spain 269 −19 1 stroke Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Shane Lowry
2016 Matthew Fitzpatrick  England 271 −17 1 stroke Tyrrell Hatton
2015 Rory McIlroy (2)  Northern Ireland 267 −21 1 stroke Andy Sullivan
2014 Henrik Stenson (2)  Sweden 272 −16 2 strokes Victor Dubuisson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose
2013 Henrik Stenson  Sweden 263 −25 6 strokes Ian Poulter
2012 Rory McIlroy  Northern Ireland 265 −23 2 strokes Justin Rose
2011 Álvaro Quirós  Spain 269 −19 2 strokes Paul Lawrie
2010 Robert Karlsson  Sweden 274 −14 Playoff Ian Poulter
2009 Lee Westwood  England 265 −23 6 strokes Ross McGowan

Top 25 Players Form Review

Player Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5 Scoring Average
1.        Francesco Molinari 295 293 281 264 144 70.94
2.        Tommy Fleetwood 271 283 286 274 276 69.5
3.        Patrick Reed 283 289 268 279 277 69.8
4.        Xander Schauffele 274 285 273 275 261 68.40**
5.        Rory McIlroy 287 298 275 262 274 69.8
6.        Thorbjorn Olesen 271 283 149 272 277 69.55
7.        Alex Noren 287 280 269 280 144 70
8.        Haotong Li 281 267 284 286 278 69.8
9.        Eddie Pepperell 279 285 265 272 283 69.2
10.     Lucas Bjerregaard 285 270 304 286 273 70.9
11.     Tyrrell Hatton 289 279 274 270 274 69.3
12.     Jon Rahm 289 276 269 280 148 70.11
13.     Russell Knox 275 303 142 280 145 71.56
14.     Kiradech Aphibarnrat 291 275 280 277 146 70.5
15.     Lee Westwood 273 278 209 149 279 69.88
16.     Sergio Garcia 276 201 269 268 141 67.95**
17.     Alexander Bjork 295 273 290 281 215 71.26
18.     Matt Wallace 281 280 297 287 283 71.4
19.     Ryan Fox 292 275 291 148 282 71.55
20.     Rafa Cabrera Bello 285 273 280 274 273 69.25
21.     Matthew Fitzpatrick 288 298 287 216 263 71.15
22.     Brandon Stone 297 287 296 149 280 72.72*
23.     Jorge Campillo 291 278 298 141 222 72.35*
24.     Adrian Otaegui 286 269 299 151 215 71.76
25.     Shubhankar Sharma 288 279 304 287 269 71.35

Poor Form*- Brandan Stone and Jorge Campillo are completely out of form at present.  

Good Form** – Sergio Garcia is back in form and flying at present, along with Justin Rose and Xander Schauffele.


History at the event the past 3 years

Player 2017 2016 2015 Scoring Average
1.       Francesco Molinari 276 275 275 68.83**
2.       Tommy Fleetwood 277 276 288 70.08
3.       Patrick Reed 273 DNP 276 68.95
4.       Xander Schauffele DNP DNP DNP 69.6
5.       Rory McIlroy DNP 276 267 68.45**
6.       Thorbjorn Olesen 282 279 280 70.08
7.       Alex Noren 285 280 280 70.41
8.       Haotong Li 275 282 DNP 69.61
9.       Eddie Pepperell 286 DNP 290 71.20*
10.    Lucas Bjerregaard 294 DNP 282 71.20*
11.    Tyrrell Hatton 272 272 279 68.58**
12.    Jon Rahm 269 DNP DNP 68.81
13.    Russell Knox DNP DNP DNP 69.6
14.    Kiradech Aphibarnrat 270 283 281 69.5
15.    Lee Westwood 287 277 285 70.75
16.    Sergio Garcia 271 279 DNP 69.03
17.    Alexander Bjork 276 DNP DNP 69.4
18.    Matt Wallace DNP DNP DNP 69.6
19.    Ryan Fox 280 DNP DNP 69.73
20.    Rafa Cabrera Bello 277 280 281 69.83
21.    Matthew Fitzpatrick 274 271 275 68.33**
22.    Brandon Stone DNP 293 DNP 70.81
23.    Jorge Campillo DNP 276 DNP 69.4
24.    Adrian Otaegui 283 DNP DNP 69.98
25.    Shubhankar Sharma DNP DNP DNP 69.6

Good History at Event** – John Rahm is defending champion, however has only played there once. Francesco Molinari, Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton and Matthew Fitzpatrick have the lowest stroke averages.

Poor History at Event* – Eddie Pepperell and Lucas Bjerregaard have both played the tournament twice in the past three years and have both struggled.


My Rankings for the Tournament

You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

Player Stroke Av My Rankings My Price Betfair
1.       Sergio Garcia 70.21 68.88 9 14
2.       Xander Schauffele 70.49 69.3 11 19.5
3.       Rory McIlroy 69.3 69.41 13 10
4.       Tyrrell Hatton 70.09 69.44 15 19
5.       Tommy Fleetwood 69.34 69.54 17 15
6.       Rafa Cabrera Bello 69.89 69.56 20 44
7.       Thorbjorn Olesen 69.86 69.74 23 24
8.       Patrick Reed 70.1 69.76 26 32
9.       Eddie Pepperell 69.91 69.77 29 90
10.    Jon Rahm 69.96 69.84 32 13
11.    Haotong Li 70.29 69.93 35 21
12.    Lee Westwood 69.77 69.98 38 50
13.    Alex Noren 69.97 70.06 42 38
14.    Francesco Molinari 69.8 70.21 46 27
15.    Kiradech Aphibarnrat 70.2 70.23 50 50
16.    Matthew Fitzpatrick 70.19 70.36 55 40
17.    Alexander Bjork 70.35 70.64 60 190
18.    Lucas Bjerregaard 70.29 70.74 65 50
19.    Ryan Fox 70.17 70.79 70 110
20.    Matt Wallace 70.58 70.82 75 46
21.    Russell Knox 70.47 70.87 80 160
22.    Shubankar Sharma 70.77 70.87 80 310
23.    Adrian Otaegui 70.29 70.97 90 240
24.    Jorge Campillo 70.08 71.1 95 330
25.    Brandon Stone 71.68 72.05 100 320

 “The Overs” – Eddie Pepperell is a big over this week, along with Rafa Cabrera Bello and Alexander Bjork. I know players like Shubankar Sharma, Russell Knox, Adrain Otaegui, Jorge Campillo and Ryan Fox are a little out of form, but they just seem ridiculous odds in a small man field.

 “The Under’s” – John Rahm is little too short for my liking,

Compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “under’s”, and also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.


In Play Trading Opportunities

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.

Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. This can be a great strategy for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3. Last week Li Haotong was $2 entering the final round and lost, he struggled with his game most of the day. This I notice is a common trait with leaders entering the final day, put simply “nerves”!

Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find themselves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.


Pre Tournament Bets

I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool. Below are some bet options to choose from.

Last week we were on fire with all 6 pre-tournament match bets profiting, hopefully we continue this week!

 BACK – X Schauffele to beat J Rahm at $2 for 2 units

 BACK – T Olesen to beat M Fitzpatrick at $1.9 for 2 units

 LAY – John Rahm for Top 5 at $4 for 1 unit

 BACK – Eddie Pepperell Top 20 at $3 for 2 Unit

 BACK – Rafa Cabrera Top 20 at $3 for 2 Units

 BACK – Alexander Bjork  Top 20 at $4.50 for 1 Unit

 


Related Articles

Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Betfair’s Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s ...

Intelligent Golf Betting: The Derivative Golf Markets

Derivative betting markets are those invented by the industry, not the sport. In golf for instance, we have Top ...

Six Variables To Consider With Your Golf Betting

Whether you’re building a golf model or just looking to manually punt on the golf each week, it pays ...