Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 15-18th Nov
Event and Course Details
Jumeirah Golf Estates is arguably one of the world’s most prestigious residential golf developments comprising a collection of individually designed homes set amongst a truly breathtaking landscape and enclosed with a secure gated community.
The DP World Tour Championship is played on the Earth Course and designed by Greg Norman. Inspired by the great parkland courses of Europe and North America, sets the scene for an incredible experience. The rolling fairways, brilliant white bunkering and deep red ochre landscape are framed by a plethora of trees and shrubs making each hole picture perfect.
Weather Report
Thursday – Partly Sunny, 34 Degrees, Precipitation 1%, Humidity 42%, Wind 6km/h
Friday – Sunny, 34 Degrees, Precipitation 1%, Humidity 42%, Wind 15km/h
Past Winners and Runners Up
Year | Winner | Country | Score | To par | Margin of victory | Runner(s)-up |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | Jon Rahm | Spain | 269 | −19 | 1 stroke | Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Shane Lowry |
2016 | Matthew Fitzpatrick | England | 271 | −17 | 1 stroke | Tyrrell Hatton |
2015 | Rory McIlroy (2) | Northern Ireland | 267 | −21 | 1 stroke | Andy Sullivan |
2014 | Henrik Stenson (2) | Sweden | 272 | −16 | 2 strokes | Victor Dubuisson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose |
2013 | Henrik Stenson | Sweden | 263 | −25 | 6 strokes | Ian Poulter |
2012 | Rory McIlroy | Northern Ireland | 265 | −23 | 2 strokes | Justin Rose |
2011 | Álvaro Quirós | Spain | 269 | −19 | 2 strokes | Paul Lawrie |
2010 | Robert Karlsson | Sweden | 274 | −14 | Playoff | Ian Poulter |
2009 | Lee Westwood | England | 265 | −23 | 6 strokes | Ross McGowan |
Top 25 Players Form Review
Player | Event 1 | Event 2 | Event 3 | Event 4 | Event 5 | Scoring Average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Francesco Molinari | 295 | 293 | 281 | 264 | 144 | 70.94 |
2. Tommy Fleetwood | 271 | 283 | 286 | 274 | 276 | 69.5 |
3. Patrick Reed | 283 | 289 | 268 | 279 | 277 | 69.8 |
4. Xander Schauffele | 274 | 285 | 273 | 275 | 261 | 68.40** |
5. Rory McIlroy | 287 | 298 | 275 | 262 | 274 | 69.8 |
6. Thorbjorn Olesen | 271 | 283 | 149 | 272 | 277 | 69.55 |
7. Alex Noren | 287 | 280 | 269 | 280 | 144 | 70 |
8. Haotong Li | 281 | 267 | 284 | 286 | 278 | 69.8 |
9. Eddie Pepperell | 279 | 285 | 265 | 272 | 283 | 69.2 |
10. Lucas Bjerregaard | 285 | 270 | 304 | 286 | 273 | 70.9 |
11. Tyrrell Hatton | 289 | 279 | 274 | 270 | 274 | 69.3 |
12. Jon Rahm | 289 | 276 | 269 | 280 | 148 | 70.11 |
13. Russell Knox | 275 | 303 | 142 | 280 | 145 | 71.56 |
14. Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 291 | 275 | 280 | 277 | 146 | 70.5 |
15. Lee Westwood | 273 | 278 | 209 | 149 | 279 | 69.88 |
16. Sergio Garcia | 276 | 201 | 269 | 268 | 141 | 67.95** |
17. Alexander Bjork | 295 | 273 | 290 | 281 | 215 | 71.26 |
18. Matt Wallace | 281 | 280 | 297 | 287 | 283 | 71.4 |
19. Ryan Fox | 292 | 275 | 291 | 148 | 282 | 71.55 |
20. Rafa Cabrera Bello | 285 | 273 | 280 | 274 | 273 | 69.25 |
21. Matthew Fitzpatrick | 288 | 298 | 287 | 216 | 263 | 71.15 |
22. Brandon Stone | 297 | 287 | 296 | 149 | 280 | 72.72* |
23. Jorge Campillo | 291 | 278 | 298 | 141 | 222 | 72.35* |
24. Adrian Otaegui | 286 | 269 | 299 | 151 | 215 | 71.76 |
25. Shubhankar Sharma | 288 | 279 | 304 | 287 | 269 | 71.35 |
Poor Form*- Brandan Stone and Jorge Campillo are completely out of form at present.
Good Form** – Sergio Garcia is back in form and flying at present, along with Justin Rose and Xander Schauffele.
History at the event the past 3 years
Player | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | Scoring Average |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. Francesco Molinari | 276 | 275 | 275 | 68.83** |
2. Tommy Fleetwood | 277 | 276 | 288 | 70.08 |
3. Patrick Reed | 273 | DNP | 276 | 68.95 |
4. Xander Schauffele | DNP | DNP | DNP | 69.6 |
5. Rory McIlroy | DNP | 276 | 267 | 68.45** |
6. Thorbjorn Olesen | 282 | 279 | 280 | 70.08 |
7. Alex Noren | 285 | 280 | 280 | 70.41 |
8. Haotong Li | 275 | 282 | DNP | 69.61 |
9. Eddie Pepperell | 286 | DNP | 290 | 71.20* |
10. Lucas Bjerregaard | 294 | DNP | 282 | 71.20* |
11. Tyrrell Hatton | 272 | 272 | 279 | 68.58** |
12. Jon Rahm | 269 | DNP | DNP | 68.81 |
13. Russell Knox | DNP | DNP | DNP | 69.6 |
14. Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 270 | 283 | 281 | 69.5 |
15. Lee Westwood | 287 | 277 | 285 | 70.75 |
16. Sergio Garcia | 271 | 279 | DNP | 69.03 |
17. Alexander Bjork | 276 | DNP | DNP | 69.4 |
18. Matt Wallace | DNP | DNP | DNP | 69.6 |
19. Ryan Fox | 280 | DNP | DNP | 69.73 |
20. Rafa Cabrera Bello | 277 | 280 | 281 | 69.83 |
21. Matthew Fitzpatrick | 274 | 271 | 275 | 68.33** |
22. Brandon Stone | DNP | 293 | DNP | 70.81 |
23. Jorge Campillo | DNP | 276 | DNP | 69.4 |
24. Adrian Otaegui | 283 | DNP | DNP | 69.98 |
25. Shubhankar Sharma | DNP | DNP | DNP | 69.6 |
Good History at Event** – John Rahm is defending champion, however has only played there once. Francesco Molinari, Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton and Matthew Fitzpatrick have the lowest stroke averages.
Poor History at Event* – Eddie Pepperell and Lucas Bjerregaard have both played the tournament twice in the past three years and have both struggled.
My Rankings for the Tournament
You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s
Player | Stroke Av | My Rankings | My Price | Betfair |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. Sergio Garcia | 70.21 | 68.88 | 9 | 14 |
2. Xander Schauffele | 70.49 | 69.3 | 11 | 19.5 |
3. Rory McIlroy | 69.3 | 69.41 | 13 | 10 |
4. Tyrrell Hatton | 70.09 | 69.44 | 15 | 19 |
5. Tommy Fleetwood | 69.34 | 69.54 | 17 | 15 |
6. Rafa Cabrera Bello | 69.89 | 69.56 | 20 | 44 |
7. Thorbjorn Olesen | 69.86 | 69.74 | 23 | 24 |
8. Patrick Reed | 70.1 | 69.76 | 26 | 32 |
9. Eddie Pepperell | 69.91 | 69.77 | 29 | 90 |
10. Jon Rahm | 69.96 | 69.84 | 32 | 13 |
11. Haotong Li | 70.29 | 69.93 | 35 | 21 |
12. Lee Westwood | 69.77 | 69.98 | 38 | 50 |
13. Alex Noren | 69.97 | 70.06 | 42 | 38 |
14. Francesco Molinari | 69.8 | 70.21 | 46 | 27 |
15. Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 70.2 | 70.23 | 50 | 50 |
16. Matthew Fitzpatrick | 70.19 | 70.36 | 55 | 40 |
17. Alexander Bjork | 70.35 | 70.64 | 60 | 190 |
18. Lucas Bjerregaard | 70.29 | 70.74 | 65 | 50 |
19. Ryan Fox | 70.17 | 70.79 | 70 | 110 |
20. Matt Wallace | 70.58 | 70.82 | 75 | 46 |
21. Russell Knox | 70.47 | 70.87 | 80 | 160 |
22. Shubankar Sharma | 70.77 | 70.87 | 80 | 310 |
23. Adrian Otaegui | 70.29 | 70.97 | 90 | 240 |
24. Jorge Campillo | 70.08 | 71.1 | 95 | 330 |
25. Brandon Stone | 71.68 | 72.05 | 100 | 320 |
“The Overs” – Eddie Pepperell is a big over this week, along with Rafa Cabrera Bello and Alexander Bjork. I know players like Shubankar Sharma, Russell Knox, Adrain Otaegui, Jorge Campillo and Ryan Fox are a little out of form, but they just seem ridiculous odds in a small man field.
“The Under’s” – John Rahm is little too short for my liking,
Compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “under’s”, and also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.
In Play Trading Opportunities
I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.
Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. This can be a great strategy for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3. Last week Li Haotong was $2 entering the final round and lost, he struggled with his game most of the day. This I notice is a common trait with leaders entering the final day, put simply “nerves”!
Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find themselves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.
Pre Tournament Bets
I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool. Below are some bet options to choose from.
Last week we were on fire with all 6 pre-tournament match bets profiting, hopefully we continue this week!
BACK – X Schauffele to beat J Rahm at $2 for 2 units
BACK – T Olesen to beat M Fitzpatrick at $1.9 for 2 units
LAY – John Rahm for Top 5 at $4 for 1 unit
BACK – Eddie Pepperell Top 20 at $3 for 2 Unit
BACK – Rafa Cabrera Top 20 at $3 for 2 Units
BACK – Alexander Bjork Top 20 at $4.50 for 1 Unit
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