Doomben Feature Race Analysis: Saturday May 20 2017

R2 Oxlade Stakes 1200m LR 2YO SW $100,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 5, Rail is in the 2.5m position out from the true point at the last meeting. 35-60mm of rain is predicted Friday with a further 4-15mm on Saturday. We anticipate a downgrade into the Soft 7-Heavy 8 range. The predicted winds are only light so that will not impact. There have been only 6 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should still advantage on pace runners.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 4 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer agrees. At the time of writing early Friday, our two top-rated selections Skate To Paris and Ubetwedo are value odds. The race presents an opportunity to back our two top-rated selections at or above our assessed prices.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Pardoe2CMichael Cahill5713
3Wudang Blade2GBlake Shinn5711
4Zukaz2CLuke Tarrant57121
5Magnufighter2CJeff Lloyd5721
6Leroy Rocks2GLuke Dittman5761
7Ubetwedo2GDamian Browne577
8Red Heavy2CJosh Oliver5726
9Dream Kisses2FPaul Hammersley5515
10Real Princess2FJim Byrne5526
11Cabin Fever2FTegan Harrison558
12Skate To Paris2FLarry Cassidy555.5
13Pricing Power2FCorey Brown5541
15Tapa2FRobbie Fradd5571

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

12. Skate To Paris: Appears here off a 35-day break with Blinkers on first time (trailled well in them Tuesday). 3 of her 4 starts have returned competitive figures for a race like this and the $10 early fixed odds look generous.

7. Ubetwedo: This is harder than his debut win at Ipswich but the current fixed odds of $17 suggest he is worth a speculative bet.

11. Cabin Fever: Has been racing better than her SP’s represent. Currently under the odds but is a chance in this event.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be 2 potential value bets in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Skate To Paris at $5.50+ (0.7% of your betting bank)

 BACK (WIN) Ubetwedo at $7+ (0.4% of your betting bank)

R3 Chief De Beers 1050m LR HCP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 5, Rail is in the 2.5m position out from the true point at the last meeting. 35-60mm of rain is predicted Friday with a further 4-15mm on Saturday. We anticipate a downgrade into the Soft 7-Heavy 8 range. The predicted winds are only light so that will not impact. There have been only 6 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should still advantage on pace runners.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts in the back straight with short run to the double turn that leads into the home straight. Wide barriers from this start can prove difficult to overcome. A fair amount of early speed here from inside to out with Hidden Pearl the lost likely to go forward from her wide draw. Highly Geared could make her work a bit early. Misery from his middle draw can be within the first 3-4 runners and Destiva can either hold the lead or take a trail.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 5 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has 3. At the time of writing early Friday, our top-rated selection Prompt Return is under our assessed price. Our second rated selection Misery is value odds. The race presents an opportunity to speculate at big odds our second rated selection at or above our assessed price.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Mount Nebo7GHugh Bowman5910016
2Into The Red6GLuke Dittman57.59731
3Hidden Pearl6MBrad Pengelly56.5999
4Prompt Return4GJeff Lloyd56946
5Mr Manhattan5GCorey Brown549011
6Sir Statham7GKerrin McEvoy549026
7Tempt Me Not4MGlyn Schofield548934
8The Virginian4GJim Byrne548812
9Highly Geared7MMichael Cahill548516
10Mr Favulous8GLuke Tarrant548521
12Misery4GTiffani Brooker54808
13Vienna Queen6MRobbie Fradd5479.5201
14Colinelle4GPaul Hammersley547611
16Quelle Liaison5MUnknown547134

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

4. Prompt Return: Won over 900m first up at the Gold Coast returning competitive figures. Typically holds form when he strikes and will be thereabouts again.

12. Misery: Racing very well handling all types of track conditions. Whilst this is harder than recent assignments the early fixed odds of $21 make him a worthy speculative bet.

3. Hidden Pearl: Consistent sprinter who handles the wet well. Drawn wide but has the speed to either lead or sit outside lead. Under the odds currently at $5.

5. Mr Manhattan: Races well fresh and appears here for the first time up from Sydney. Handles wet tracks well and can win this.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be 1 potential value bet in the race.

 BACK (WIN)Misery at $8+ (0.4% of your betting bank)

R5 Bright Shadow 1200m LR F&M HCP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 5, Rail is in the 2.5m position out from the true point at the last meeting. 35-60mm of rain is predicted Friday with a further 4-15mm on Saturday. We anticipate a downgrade into the Soft 7-Heavy 8 range. The predicted winds are only light so that will not impact. There have been only 6 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should still advantage on pace runners.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts in the back straight with a long enough run to the double turn that leads into the home straight providing most time to find their positions. Selita the lost likely to go forward from her wide draw. With A Promise can lead or hold a forward position early. Untamed Diamond has early speed, has options from gate 7. Others like All Over Bosanova, Shamfrancisco, My Little Flicka and Dee Nine Elle also have some early speed.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 3 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has 2. At the time of writing early Friday, our two top-rated selections Untamed Diamond and Elegant Composure are about the right odds when compared to our assessed prices. The race presents an opportunity to back our top-rated selection at or above our assessed price.

Runners

HnHorseASJockeyHcpAllHrr2w$
1Brook Road6MHugh Bowman589619
4Sold For Song4MJeff Lloyd579210
5Untamed Diamond4MKerrin McEvoy57913.8
6With A Promise3FJosh Oliver579131
7Elegant Composure5MLarry Cassidy57898.5
8Dee Nine Elle4MCorey Brown578661
9Banda Spice4MTiffani Brooker578441
10Bidii Babe4MJim Byrne578315
13Notonyourlife5MRobbie Fradd578131
14Shamfrancisco5MMichael Cahill578141
15Not A Happy Camper5MRonnie Stewart578071
16Selita5MLuke Tarrant578017
18Hermosa Beach6MUnknown577861
21Hellaroo4MUnknown5772.5101

Advantaged Horses

5. Untamed Diamond: Racing very well and appears here after consecutive wins in Sydney. From gate 7 has options to be right on pace. Kerrin McEvoy takes over Saturday and is well suited to this type of mare. Current fixed odds represent a far price.

Neutral Horses

7. Elegant Composure: Loomed to win first up and boxed on well enough. Fitter here but has a tricky draw which could lead to a wide trip.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be 1 potential value bet in the race.

 BACK (WIN) Untamed Diamond at $3.80+ (1.1% of your betting bank)


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