FEATURE RACE PREVIEW: DONCASTER MILE

Doncaster Mile tips and betting strategy are online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, racing tips & betting strategy for the Doncaster Mile at Randwick racecourse with Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments. Full in-depth preview and analysis of each race and betting strategy are online now! Only on the Betfair Hub. 

Held annually in April, the Doncaster Handicap is a 3yo+ handicap race over 1600m. Randwick is the host racecourse for the event, most recently won by Nettoyer in 2020. For the best odds on the Doncaster Handicap and all other races, head to the Betfair Exchange.

Click here to head to the Doncaster Mile market on the Betfair Exchange.


DONCASTER MILE

Track: Randwick | Distance: 1600m | Condition: Hcp | Rail Position: True | Condition: Heavy10 | Prizemoney: $3,000,000

7-20mm rain forecast for Thursday. 20mm-35mm for Friday. 6-15mm Saturday. Just an absolute quagmire really.

A time-honoured major mile won in recent years by the likes of Winx, Sacred Falls, More Joyous, Kermadec, Happy Clapper & Brutal.

HISTORICAL PROFILING (LAST 10 YEARS)

  • 2nd up (1 winner), 3rd up (5 winners), 4th up (3 winners), 5th up (1 winner)
  • 14-day break (8 winners), 21-day break (2 winners)
  • Leader (2 winners), Settled 3rd-6th (1 winner), Settled 10th-20th (6 winners)
  • 49kg-53kg (5 winners), 55kg-57kg (5 winners)
  • Geldings (3 winners), Colts (3 winners), Mares (3 winners), Entires (1 winner)
  • 3yo (3 winners), 4yo (2 winners), 5yo (1 winner), 6yo (3 winners), 7yo (1 winner)

This is a good form horse’s race. The last 10 winners have all finishers 1st-to-4th at their last start and 9 out of 10 finished in the first 5 for their 2nd and 3rd-last starts.

In addition, for the last 10 years the first 2 home have had their last start in Sydney. In the Epsom Handicap during the Spring, only 1 horse (Hartnell) has won (or quinella’d) coming off a Melbourne-based run. Forty horses in total have tried.


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SPEED MAP RACING TIPS

Ellsberg to lead, with Forbidden love handy.

Dalasan, Lighthouse, Converge & Mr Brightside likely handy.

Just Folk & Laws Of Indices forward of midfield.

The rest tend to get back.


DONCASTER MILE | KEY RUNNERS + RACING TIPS

2.  I’m Thunderstruck – Top miler who won the Toorak and the Golden Eagle in the Spring, and then charged home for 2nd in the All Star Mile last start. Did win in only wet track run, but in C1 level as a 3yo. Faces the big hoodoo of 1 horse coming off a Melbourne run running in the quinella in the past 10 Doncaster & Epsoms.

3.  Private Eye – Has been set for this. Won the Epsom in the Spring. Handles wet, though jury out whether a bog heavy 10 suits him. Blinkers on first time this prep. Was a solid 5th in the George Ryder after being held up in the straight.

5.  Lighthouse – Second in the CF Orr & Canterbury Stakes before winning the Coolmore last start. Just keeps getting better and better each run despite being 9th up here.

6.  Law Of Indices – Import. G1 winner in France on a wet track. Strong 5th in the Golden Eagle in first Aus run. Hit the line strongly for 5th first up over 1200m, running +5.7 the 2nd quickest last 600m of the day. Then pulled up lame next start in a forgive run. Was a close 3rd in the George Ryder last start. Can certainly win here.

7.  Ellsberg – Leader who has relished the wet going in two G3 wins of late. Solid 2nd last start in the Ajax. Can figure.

8.  Inspirational Girl – Impressive Blamey winner than had excuses in the All Star Mile copping bumps. Wet a query.

13.  Numerian – Annabel Neasham trained 6yo import. Overseas form is unbelievable. Beat Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet by 3L over 2000m, and ran 2nd beaten a head by Armory who ran 2nd in the Cox Plate. Both of those runs were on wet tracks. Ran well first up in the Bill Ritchie only beaten 2L with strong late sectionals in first Aus run then spelled. Beaten 2L first up in Melbourne carrying 60kg. Drops to featherweight 51kg here. Good roughie.

14.  Hilal – Second beaten a nose in the G1 Champagne Stakes as a 2yo. Won the G2 Stan Fox and $1m Bondi Stakes last prep. Ran 2nd beaten a head by Anamoe in the Hobartville then 3rd in the Randwick Guineas. Beaten into 7th in the George Ryder.

16. Forbidden Love – Loves it wet and bolted in by 3.6L over 1400m at G2 level before winning the Canterbury Stakes and then the George Ryder. Well weighted and can certainly win again.

20.  Converge – Won the JJ Atkins G1 comprehensively by 3.3L and his dominant Randwick 964m Aug 20 trial win by 2.8L was outstanding. Then caught a virus and was spelled. Came back this prep, settled back and rattled home to win a Randwick 1000m Jan 24 trial by 3L+2.9, running the 7th quickest last 600m and 2nd quickest last 200m of the day. Was a slashing 3rd at Randwick first up over 1200m against 2 G1 spinters Paulele & Ranch Hand, only beaten 1L when in the wrong part of the track. Then hit the line well for 3rd in the Hobartville. Won the Randwick Guineas for us, then 2nd in the Rosehill Guineas. 3yos have a good record in this race.

21.  Banker’s Choice – Loves the wet and was a good 4th beaten 3L in the George Ryder.

24.  Our Playboy – Loves it wet over a mile and a good roughie if sneaks into the field.


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SUMMARY

Open race particularly given the bog Heavy 10 track. Are some runners at big odds that can win.

Law Of Indices, Numerian, Forbidden Love, Converge & Lighthouse the best chances.

Private Eye, Banker’s Choice & Our Playboy rough chances, with the latter two emergencies if there are scratchings.


DEAN EVANS’ TOP 5 SELECTIONS

6 – Law Of Indices
13 – Numerian
16 – Forbidden Love
20 – Converge
5 – Lighthouse


DONCASTER MILE | BETTING STRATEGY

BACK (WIN) — Law Of Indices for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Numerian for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Forbidden Love for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Converge for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Lighthouse for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Private Eye for 0.35 units

BACK (WIN) — Our Playboy for 0.35 units

BACK (WIN) — Banker’s Choice for 0.3 units

Click here to head to the Doncaster Mile market on the Betfair Exchange.


RESULTS

Units Outlayed: 273.2
Units Returned: 302.0
Profit On Turnover: 10.6%

Click here to head back to the Feature Race Previews Hub.


WATCH: Episode 4 of Lay Back with Betfair. Tom Haylock and Luke White get fiery, as they argue who they’re Backing and Laying at Bendigo and Randwick on Saturday

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