Darwin Cup Carnival: Expert Tips

Throughout the Darwin Cup Carnival, bookmark this page for Darwin Tips from our expert Analysts.

There will be previews and best bets for all the major races over the next month.

Go where the value is this Darwin Cup Carnival and head to the Betfair Exchange.

Go where the value is over the Darwin Cup Carnival on the Betfair Exchange

Darwin 5th August, 2019

For this supplier a max bet is 10 units.

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 317

Total Units Returned: 344.70

ROI: 8.74%

After scratchings this race looks a great set up for Love Club. It has speed to burn and think it will find the find pretty easy here and will be very hard to catch. The main danger is Mossbelle who has very good VIC form for a race like this.

The big query is having first start on the dirt as it can be the downfall of many a good horse. Delta Dor will get an ideal run from the alley and will be hitting the line strong late.

Selections: 4-9-1

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Love Club – 8 units

Kronos was beaten at short priced last start when caught off the track. Its previous win when able to find the front it was dominant running good time. From the inside alley it should be able to hold the lead and is the one they have to catch.

The danger to Kronos could be Eastwood who was strong through the line first run this track. It should get the trail behind the leader and get last shot. Devine Red ran very well fresh when it had to sit outside Clever Tommy on a hot tempo. Is fitter here but not sure the extra 100m is ideal.

Selections: 2-7-1

Betting Strategy

 BACK – 2 Kronos – 8 units

Rockatomic was huge winning on Wednesday when romped home by over five lengths. It meets a similar opposition here but will have to do it the hard way after drawing off the track outside genuine speedsters. It was first up from a bleeding attack Wednesday so it is doubtful the quick back up will suit as much as it would other runners.

Just think it is unders at the odds on quote and is a good risk at current price. Dubawi Sniper showed plenty of toe to win first up at Adelaide River then had issues when down the track in hot race last start. Its had 51 days off to freshen and gets the Concussion Plates off so am expecting Arnott to fire it out of the gates and put it right on the pace.

It will most likely sit outside Puzzled Princess who struggles to run a strong 1100m. Bon Aire will get back and expect it to be running on strong late.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Rockatomic – 8 Units

Looks a great race for Hurry Home Harry here. It has been in great form and think the jockey change here will be huge for it. Expect it to race handy then be too strong for them down the stretch.

The big improver will be the Ex-Tassie runner The Auditor. It was fair first go on the dirt and will take plenty of improvement for that run. It has the speed to push forward so does look overs. Ticket To Paris from the good alley is the next best.

Selections: 4-3-12

Betting Strategy

 BACK – The Auditor – 5 units

 BACK – Hurry Home Harry – 7 units

Risking Sir Garfield and General Factor here both coming out of a slowly run Derby. They have the upside but just think against the older horses they look under the odds. Yenhaab has been ok both runs this track but third up out to its ideal trip will be finishing off hard.

Rosherville on the quick back from tough win Wednesday looks suited rolling to the front. Borlung will be flashing late.

Selections: 9-3-6

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Sir Garfield – 6 units

 LAY – General Factor – 6 units

Think this is a race in two between Itsahymn and Lieder. Itsahymn is the Group One winner from WA who has had two runs on dirt tracks (Broome and Darwin) and seemingly thrived on the surface. It will get a nice run just off the speed and if Peter Hall can get the big grey clear running then it will be winning.

The horse it has to get past is the Michael Hickmott trained Lieder. Its win the Buntine (traditional lead up) was one of the easiest you have seen and knowing the trainer it will take even further improvement into this grand final.

The best betting option in the race, however, may be to Lay the Derby winner Poets Landing. It sat wide to win the Derby but it was a very slow run race and was a bunched finished. Just don’t think it is in the same class as the top two and is a very good risk at the current quote as is double figures in my market.

Of the roughies Lotion and That’s Justified will get a great run from the alleys and could be off and gone should the favs find trouble back in the field.

Selections: 1-2-8-12

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Poets Landing – 10 units

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