DAPTO MEGASTAR: RUNNER-BY-RUNNER PREVIEW

Check out Betfair’s full preview for the Group 1 Dapto Megastar from NSW greyhound analyst Michael Tye. Includes runner-by-runner analysis, key stats and betting strategies. Greyhound racing tips online now.


Distance: 520 m

Track Record: :29.34 (Fantastic Dotty, 20th August 2015)

Weather Conditions: Showers, but likely good track.


FINAL FIELD

(1) Sound Of Silence

Best time – :29.82. Ran this time in heat win with a 1st split of 5.52. Fifty-two career starts for 22 wins and 20 placings. Eleven starts from this draw for 5 wins and 3 seconds. His heat run was his first at this venue over the 520m, but has raced here over 600m and 729m. This is his second Group race final.

His heat win was sensational. It was one of those wins where the time was irrelevant; it was the way he went about it. He showed a lot more versatility than earlier in his career where he was quite stubborn for the rails and didn’t show as much track sense. I loved the way he weaved in and out between runners in his heat.

This draw here is great for him, as he can afford to miss it slightly like he usually does and still be able to use the fence to land in a forward position. My main concern is being drawn next to Ritza Donna, as they have similar race patterns of being risky away and strong late. There is a possibility they may undo each other, so for that reason I am leaning to Sound Of Silence as a place bet only here.

(2) Ritza Donna

Best time – :29.69 (24th June 2021). Runner up in heat in :29.99 with a 1st split of 5.48. Twenty-two career starts for 7 wins and 11 placings. Five starts from Box 2 for 3 wins and 2 seconds. Eleven starts over this trip for 4 wins and 6 placings. This is her first Group race final.

She knows every grain of sand here and the inside draw has exponentially increased her chances of winning. If she had an outside draw I would be inclined to put the pen through her, but she may be able to get a lovely soft run behind the speed here from Box 2. She has the wild card factor here if there is any trouble upfront she could run right over the top of them late. Don’t take her lightly.

(3) Marvin’s Girl

Best time – :29.82 (18th September 2021). Runner up in heat in :29.84 with a 1st split of 5.42. Has a 5.34 1st split PB. Twenty-five career starts for 10 wins and 10 placings. Three starts from the draw for 2 wins and 1 placings. Five starts here for 2 wins and 2 placings. This is her first Group race final.

This looks to be extremely tough for her in a field of this quality. She would need to clearly spear the lids and lead early – and I am not sure that’s possible with the other classy greyhounds in this event. She should be able to clear Ritza Donna and Sound Of Silence early, so the map is there for a forward showing. But I just don’t think she has the class to win.

(4) Tachycardic

Best time – :29.79 (4th September 2021). Won his heat in :29.82 with a 1st split of 5.48. Has a PB 1st split of 5.41. Twenty-five career starts for 6 wins and 8 placings. Two starts from this draw for 1 second. Four starts over this track and trip for 3 wins and 1 unplaced run. Ran 7th in 2021 Group 2 Richmond Derby.

He is quite underrated this dog. His three wins over this trip in :29.79, :29.82 and :29.85 are nothing to be sneezed at. In addition, he won his heat from Box 8 (albeit in a 5-dog field), which is still a tough ask.

My gut feel is the draw in this Final has cruelled him, as there is plenty of speed either side of him, but it would not surprise me if he was right in this. If he got out to something stupid on the exchange ($41+) he would be worth throwing a fiver on.

(5) Special Blend

Best time – :29.77 (9th September 2021). Ran second in heat in :29.96 with a 1st split of 5.46. Thirty-one career starts for 12 wins and 9 placings. Has yet to start from Box 5. Four starts over this trip for 1 win and 2 seconds. This is his second Group race final. Previous 3rd in Group 1 Vic Peters at Wentworth Park in October.

He has been a bit hit-and-miss at box rise in recent months, which looks problematic seeing he starts from Box 5 here. He would need everything to go right from this draw and I think he can only win if he exploded out and found the early lead.

Zipping Krygios can explode mid-race and Sound Of Silence and Ritza Donna are great back-markers, so even if he did find the lead, I still think he could be reeled in here. Prefer others.

(6) Zipping Kyrgios

Best time – :29.40. Ran this time in heat win (quickest) with a 1st split of 5.40. Forty-four career starts for 22 wins and 14 placings. Three wins from 4 starts this draw. Only 2 starts over this track and trip for 1 win and 1 second. 2021 Group 2 Black Top winner at the Gardens and Group 3 Bob Payne Sprint at Wentworth Park.

Whenever this star chaser races, it is always heart-in-mouth stuff early as he can be risky away. He did benefit from a soft draw in his heat, but I think it is a case of backing the best greyhound in the race and hoping for a slice of luck early.

The beauty about this dog is you can have two bites at the cherry. He is more than capable of coming from back in the field and finishing his races like a locomotive. But every now and then he does begin with a bang – as evidenced in an all-the-way win at Wentworth Park in October. In the Black Top final at The Gardens, he began better than expected, and, although he was outpaced early by the speedy brigade, he found a lovely spot along the rail by the winning post the first time around. It was a case of times and margins from there.

I am envisaging something similar here and an unimpeded run to the first turn is the key. After that I can see him exploding mid race and powering away from these rivals. Even from Box 6 I think he can win this.

(7) Light And Lily

Best time – :29.74. Ran this time in heat win with a 1st split of 5.44. Fifty-four career starts for 13 wins and 19 placings. Seven starts from Box 7 for 3 wins and 2 seconds. Most experienced chaser in field over track and trip with 19 starts for 7 wins and 7 placings. 2021 Group 1 Peter Mosman winner at Wentworth Park.

Her heat win was super, especially from a wide draw, but it will be a phenomenal effort if she won a Megastar Heat & Final from Box 7. It looks to be a bridge to far for mine, as I can’t see her clearing these rivals at the first bend. Even if she did lead, I can see her burning a stack of petrol in getting there, which would set the race up for the backmarkers. Not for me.

(8) Cowgirl Ethics

No best winning time. Ran 2nd in heat in :29.95 – 1st split in 5.41. Seventeen career starts for 7 wins and 4 placings. Two starts for 2 wins from Box 8. Has yet to win at this track and trip for in 4 attempts (3 placings). This is her second Group race final.

She has a stack of upside, but she had her heart broken mid-race by Zipping Krygios and I don’t think she can turn the tables here from the outside. Despite her good record from wide draws, these were in much easier races and I don’t think she can win this from the extreme draw.

(9) Neangar Boy – 1st Emergency

No best winning time. Ran 3rd in heat in :29.98 with a 1st split of 5.40. Thirty-eight career starts for 8 wins and 17 placings. Last week’s heat run was his first at this venue.

He had every chance in his heat after finding the early lead. He would just be getting in the way here in a race of this quality. Pass.

(10) Flighty Fernando – 2nd Emergency

Best time – :29.99 (7th October 2021). Ran a PB in heat without winning in :29.98. 1st split of 5.56. Sixteen career starts for 6 wins and 4 placings. Only missed a placing once here in 5 attempts.
He was a touch disappointing in his heat run in what was a very winnable heat and this is much harder.


SELECTIONS

1st – (6) Zipping Kyrgios

2nd – (1) Sound Of Silence

3rd – (2) Ritza Donna

BETTING STRATEGY

BACK (WIN) — Zipping Kyrgios at $2.40+ at 2 units

BACK (PLACE) — Sound Of Silence at $1.40+ at 1.5 units


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