Cricket Betting: India v Australia ODI 5

India v Australia ODI 5

Sunday October 1 — 6:00pm AEST


India

After winning three on the trot, India finally relented in Bangalore, going down by 21 runs to hand the Australians a rare victory on foreign soil. After losing the toss and being asked to field first, the start to the match largely mirrored what happened in the prior game at Indore as the Aussies put on a big opening stand, this time stretching it to 231.

However once again India managed to rein in their middle-order, capturing 5/88 with four wickets to returning quick Varun Aaron (4/71 off 10 overs). The only difference this time was that the visitors managed to kick on to post an imposing 5/334, as Mohammed Shami (0/62 off ten overs) and Axar Patel (0/66 off ten overs) also struggled, following the decision to rest Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Jasprit Bumrah and Kuldeep Yadav.

Nevertheless, India began their chase with another quality opening partnership between Ajinkya Rahane (53 off 66 balls) and Rohit Sharma (65 off 55 balls) who put on 106 off 110 balls to lay an ideal platform. That platform was further built on by Kedar Jadhav whose innings of 67 off 69 threatened to take the game away from the visitors.

However despite some handy contributions from Hardik Pandya (41 off 40 balls) and Manish Pandey (33 off 25 balls), the hosts were unable to accelerate to the degree required as they finished on 8/313.


Australia

For Australia, finally all parts of their game came together, although they still had to work very hard for their win. David Warner and Aaron Finch continued their sublime form, Warner this time pushing on to three figures to post 124 off just 119 deliveries. Finch wasn’t too far behind, clobbering 94 off 96 balls, before becoming Yadav’s first scalp.

The Aussies must have felt nervous when Steve Smith departed for just three and Travis Head struggled to find the boundary in his knock of 29 off 38 balls, however with Glenn Maxwell omitted it was the unlikely figure of Peter Handscomb who provided the finishing touches with a quick-fire 43 off 30 balls. After dominating the early part of the series, opening bowlers Pat Cummins and Nathan Coulter-Nile again failed to take a wicket with the new ball, although both later returned to pick up key dismissals.

However the most effective paceman was Kane Richardson who bowled with enviable variety to finish with 3/58 off ten overs. Leg-spinner Adam Zampa was once again expensive, although he did manage to claim the crucial wicket of Pandya in his spell of 1/63 off nine overs.

With Marcus Stoinis leaving the field after a right leg injury he may be rested in the final match which would open the door for Glenn Maxwell to receive a swift recall.


Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium

Much like Bangalore, there has not been an ODI at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium since 2013 when India chased down Australia’s 6/350 with six wickets in hand and three balls to spare. In contrast to the way this series has played out, the side batting second has won five of the seven ODIs here with chasing specialist MS Dhoni averaging an incredible 134 at Nagpur with two centuries in four games.


Key Stats

  • India have 10 of their last 12 ODIs when winning the toss.
  • India have gone 30 matches since losing consecutive ODIs.
  • Australia have won seven of their past 10 ODIs when winning the toss.
  • However Australia have won only one of their past seven ODIs when losing the toss.
  • The side winning the toss has won three of the last four ODIs at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium.

The Verdict

India remain around the same odds they were in Bangalore and indeed have been for most of the series, with Australia clear, if not distant, outsiders.

India were finally unable to recover from a tight spot at the Chinnaswamy and in doing so, dropped only their second game at home from their last eight. They didn’t do themselves any favour from the off, resting three key bowlers who were exposed to an early onslaught from the Australian openers. It remains to be seen whether the hosts will recall their top-liners, however there may be a temptation to draft Lokesh Rahul into their batting line-up, although finding a place for him may be difficult with the performance on the Indian batting unit in this series and in fact had they received the opportunity to bat first they may well still be unbeaten.

But as it was Australia managed to do enough with the bat, although their finish to the innings was far from perfect. Getting first use of the pitch has been quite crucial this series and this time the Aussie opening batsmen made it pay, with a monster stand of 231 setting up the win. Another aspect of the visitors’ performance that impressed was their bowling at the back-end with Cummins, Richardson and Coulter-Nile keeping India’s comeback at bay, although it must be noted that run rate pressure and wickets in hand also contributed – again, another factor that may have not been present had the home side batted first.

Overall it’s really hard to get a gauge on the match odds here, with the possibility of both sides switching around their selections and another ground at which we are largely unfamiliar with when it comes to this format. So we really need to work with what we already know and one fact beyond question is that the toss has played a crucial part in matches featuring these sides of late.

When winning the toss India have been near-impregnable, victorious in 10 of their last 12 ODIs, including their last five straight at home. Similarly the toss has also had a big impact on Australia’s results, winning seven of their past ten when the coin has fallen in their favour, but only one of their past seven when they have lost the toss. Throughout the series every side that has won the toss has batted first, winning three of four, however given the bias towards chasing sides at Nagpur, we’re not going to guess what either side will choose to do. But rather we will put faith in those choices taken by either Kohli or Smith and follow the history by backing whichever team wins the toss.


Betting Strategy

Back Whoever wins the toss for 1 unit


related articles

BBL07: Game 39 – Melbourne Stars v Hobart Hurricanes

After a forgettable season, the Melbourne Stars will hope to salvage something from their last match against likely semi-finalists ...

Read More

BBL07: Game 38 – Perth Scorchers v Adelaide Strikers

Having both secured a home semi-final, the Perth Scorchers and Adelaide Strikers will battle it out to decide who ...

Read More

BBL07: Game 36 – Sydney Sixers V Melbourne Stars

A born-again Sydney Sixers side will be looking to make it four wins on the bounce to close out ...

Read More