Cricket Betting: India v Australia ODI 4

India v Australia ODI 4

Thursday September 28 — 6:00pm AEST


India

India wrapped up the series in fairly convincing fashion, with their five-wicket victory in Indore handing the hosts an unassailable 3-0 lead. For the first time in the series India lost the toss and were asked to field first, their task not made any easier by a strong Australian start which saw the visitors motor to 1/224 in the 38th over.

However just as the Aussies looked set to launch, Kuldeep Yadav overcame some earlier punishment to pick up the key wickets of Aaron Finch and Steve Smith, eventually finishing with 2/75 off his ten overs.

Nonetheless there was still plenty of power in the Australian sheds but none of their middle-order hitters could overcome the clever bowling of Jasprit Bumrah (2/52 off ten overs) as they stammered to 5/294 at the conclusion of their 50 overs. India’s chase started in exceptional fashion as their top order finally fought off issues with the new ball via an opening stand of 139 between Ajinkya Rahane (70 off 76 balls) and Rohit Sharma (71 off 62 balls).

Although captain Virat Kohli uncharacteristically failed to capitalise on a start (28 off 35 balls), the elevation of Hardik Pandya to number four ensured that India would cruise to the target as he revived memories of his innings in Chennai with a typically belligerent 78 off 72 balls. Coming in down at number six, Manish Pandey also found some form with an unbeaten 36 off 32 balls as the Indians secured their victory with 13 balls to spare.

The selectors have announced that Shikhar Dhawan will not return to the squad, allowing Rahane to continue at the top of the order, although left-arm spinner Axar Patel has recovered from an ankle injury, with Ravindra Jadeja to make way.


Australia

Unfortunately for Australia they continued their pattern of getting ahead in the game, before surrendering the ascendency under pressure which has cost them another match and ultimately the series. Returning from a calf complaint, opener Aaron Finch wasted little time in marking his authority, registering the first Australian century of the series in a brilliant innings of 124 off 125 deliveries, including 12 fours and five sixes.

Finch was well supported, first by David Warner who smacked 42 off 44 balls, while captain Steve Smith made it consecutive fifties with 63 off 71 balls. However from there the wheels fell off for the visitors, as Glenn Maxwell, Travis Head and Peter Handscomb were all dismissed for single figures, leaving it to Marcus Stoinis (27 not out off 28 balls) to get them up near 300, when 330 had looked a certainty earlier in the innings.

There were not too many highlights for the Aussies in the field, although Pat Cummins (2/54 off ten overs) bowled with plenty of effort and seems set to play every game in the series, with the speedster rested from the T20Is that will take place at the conclusion of the ODIs. Less impressive were the contributions of Stoinis (0/61 off eight overs) and Ashton Agar (1/71 off ten overs) who has actually been ruled out of the rest of the tour with a fractured finger.

That could result in a recall for Adam Zampa, although given the way the Australian spinners have been handled they may instead choose to draft in James Faulkner. A dropped catch to go with a low score could also see Handscomb replaced by Matthew Wade.


M Chinnaswamy Stadium

The last ODI at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium was back in 2013 when India piled on 6/383 against Australia who made a decent fist of the chase, being bowled out for 326. However while generally noted as a high-scoring ground, in this year’s IPL it was anything but with an average first innings score of 7/148 including only one score above 160. Despite those low totals the side batting first won half of the matches, so I’d expect the winner of the toss to elect to bat first again here.


Key Stats

  • India have averaged a score of 6/305 in their last ten ODIs when batting first.
  • Seven of India’s first choice XI haven’t played an ODI at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium.
  • India have won four of their last five dead-rubbers.
  • Australia have lost six of their past seven ODIs when batting second.
  • Australia have won three of their last five dead-rubbers.

The Verdict

Despite their dominance in the series, India are much the same price as they were for the last match with the market not totally giving up on Australia just yet.

Once again India managed to come over the top of Australia and record three wins from three, however there were again some concerning aspects. The primary issue for the hosts is that it seems the Aussies have finally found a way to attack their spinners as the combined figures of Kuldeep and Yuzvendra Chahal (3/129 off 20 overs) showed.

Another factor to be wary of is that while their players would be more than familiar with this ground, only Rohit, Kohli, Dhoni and Bhuvneshwar have played an ODI in Bangalore and with the series now secure this doesn’t seem like the ideal time to be getting with the hosts.

For Australia the frustration continued – it appears that as soon as one part of their game clicks (in this case the top order batting), another falls away (middle-order batting and bowling), which has been the case throughout the series.

However the return of Finch and form of their premier batsman Smith is certainly encouraging, while their pace bowlers have maintained a high standard, leaving the major question mark over their slower bowlers who have flattered to deceive.

But provided Zampa or the part-timers can hold up an end, I see no reason why the World Champions can’t put themselves right in the frame for a first win.

So while India may lead the series 3-0, it is worth remembering that Australia have traded decently odds-on in all three games without being able to go on with it.

The visitors’ deficiencies have been well highlighted, however what has been somewhat overlooked is that the Indians have struggled in different areas throughout the series with a collection of individual efforts enough to get them over the line. Moreover the circumstances seem to be ideal for the Aussies to get off their duck, playing at a ground where many of the Indians are yet to play at the highest level and in a dead-rubber.

Granted the home side may have been marginally more impressive in dead-rubbers of late, however the decision to leave out Dhawan illustrates where their mindset is at, compared to Australia who had the luxury of bringing back centurion Finch.

Therefore I’m going to start by laying the hosts at starting price, before looking to trade out, given that Australia have found a way to lose all three fixtures thus far which must have dented their confidence somewhat.


Betting Strategy

 LAY-TO-BACK – India at 1.64 or better (trade out at 2.25 or bigger) for 1 unit


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