Cricket Betting: Australia v England – Fourth ODI

Australia v England Fourth ODI

Friday January 26 – 2:20pm AEDT

After winning the Ashes series 4-0, Australia face the very real prospect of falling behind by the same score-line if they can’t find a way to get the better of England in the fourth ODI at the Adelaide Oval on Australia Day.


Australia

The Aussies surrendered the series at the SCG on Sunday, going down by 16 runs despite being clearly on top at different points throughout the match. The first of those was when they reduced England to 3/90 on a slowish deck, having won the toss and elected to field first. However from there, they allowed the visitors to escape their clutches as England peeled 102 off the last ten overs to finish on a commanding 6/302 from their 50 overs.

Josh Hazlewood picked up 2/58 from ten overs upon his return to the side, however fellow quick Pat Cummins showed more signs of rust, leaking 67 off his ten for just the one wicket. In reply opener Aaron Finch continued his outstanding form with a typically belligerent 62 off 53 balls, but with the remainder of the top order failing to contribute the run rate required creeped up to unmanageable levels, placing an abundance of pressure on the middle-order.

All-rounders Mitchell Marsh (55 off 66 balls) and Marcus Stoinis (56 off 43 balls) did their best to pull Australia back into the game but their contributions were not enough as the home side closed out at 6/286, signalling a rare home series loss in this format. With the in-form Finch ruled out with a hamstring strain, Glenn Maxwell has earned a recall to the squad, however Travis Head seems more likely to take Finch’s place at the top of the order.


England

England secured their fifth straight ODI series in style with a brave effort that saw them overcome a variety of hurdles to get over the line. Initially they looked set for a middling total not far north of 250, until destructive wicket-keeper batsman Jos Buttler stepped forward with a mercurial 100 not out off 83 balls to steer them to their sizeable score. Buttler combined effectively with all-rounder Chris Woakes (53 off 36 balls) in the death overs, although one should not underestimate the contribution of captain Eoin Morgan who rode his luck to help rebuild the innings with a positive 41 off 50 deliveries.

In the field the Three Lions had to deal with the loss of Liam Plunkett to a hamstring injury after he had bowled just 1.2 overs, with fellow paceman Mark Wood stepping forward with a brilliant spell of 2/46 off ten overs. Leg-spinner Adil Rashid also exhibited his match-winning capabilities, claiming 2/51 off ten overs with the key wickets of Finch and Marsh swinging the momentum of the match at different stages. After being asked to plug in the remainder of Plunkett’s overs, Joe Root conceded almost seven an over, however it was otherwise a wonderfully disciplined effort in the field from England.

Now that the series has been claimed it remains to be seen whether England will use more of their squad, however Plunkett’s injury has opened the door for either David Willey, Tom Curran or Jake Ball to come in.


Adelaide Oval

The Adelaide Oval has not been Australia’s preferred ground in ODIs of late, with the home side winning only four out of their past nine matches in this format at the ground. First innings totals have been volatile in Adelaide with only one of the past eight landing between 250 and 300. After failing to put a stamp on this series David Warner will hope to build on his impressive record at the Adelaide Oval where he averages 61.66 at a strike-rate of 100.81.


key stats

  • Australia have now lost nine of their past ten ODIs.
  • Australia have won three of their past five dead-rubbers.
  • Aaron Finch has top-scored in four of his past six ODIs.
  • England have now won their last seven ODIs.
  • England have won three of their past five dead-rubbers.

The Verdict

Australia have again been pushed out but still retain favouritism over a red-hot England side who the punters still can’t completely warm too.

Having been thoroughly outplayed in the first three matches in the series it remains to be seen whether Australia try to save face by doing all they can to clinch the last two dead-rubbers, or take the opportunity to blood more players in an effort to address some of the issues that are clearly evident within this misfiring side. They did creep closer to a win and have started to match England in some areas, but given what we’ve seen throughout the series in no way could I consider backing them at odds-on and with Finch now ruled out I’m not so sure they deserve to be jollies.

As far as England are concerned there is always the chance that they take their foot off the pedal having won the series, whether that comes in the form of a more relaxed on-field approach or experimental team selections, however their achievements should not be diminished. When you consider that the win in Sydney came after losing a crucial toss and essentially having to compete without one of their frontline bowlers, it firmly illustrates just how far ahead they have been in this series.

Initially I wasn’t so keen to be siding with the visitors but having dominated the series and with Australia now shorn of their best performing player, I’m finding it increasingly hard to justify the hosts as favourites. However the match plays out it’s difficult not to see England trading shorter than starting price so I will be taking  a position on the Poms, before looking to trade out and cover any comeback from a wounded Australian side.


Betting Strategy

  BACK-TO-LAY – England at 2.06 or bigger for 1 unit (trade out at 1.50 or better).


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