Cricket Betting: Australia v England – First ODI

Australia v England First ODI

Sunday January 14 – 2:20pm AEDT

After comprehensively reclaiming the Ashes, Australia will now turn their attention to a five-match ODI series against the Old Enemy which commences with the opening game at the MCG on Sunday.


Australia

Although widely recognised as better travellers than their test-playing counterparts, Australia’s ODI side has started to mirror the long-form team with only one win from their past 13 on the road, however, only two losses in their last 27 games at home stands them in good stead for this series.

After fruitful Ashes campaigns, the likes of Steve Smith, David Warner, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood will be hoping to pick up from where they left off, while an impressive performance in the test series has also paid dividends for ‘keeper-batsman Tim Paine who comes into the side for the discarded Matthew Wade. Mitchell Marsh also returns after a breakthrough Ashes series, while the side is propped up by short-form specialists Aaron Finch, Travis Head, Marcus Stoinis and Adam Zampa.

The surprises came in the form of West Australian fast-bowlers Andrew Tye and Jhye Richardson, who have been rewarded for their form in the BBL, with the pair of Sandgropers more likely to play a part towards the end of the series when the test quicks are rested. Dynamic batsman Chris Lynn was also originally picked off the back of his performances in the Big Bash, however a calf injury has seen him sidelined with Cameron White earning a surprise recall.

After occupying top spot for the best part of the last four years, the Aussies will be looking to improve on their current ICC ranking of number three, with England nipping at their heels one place below.


England

England are certainly an ODI side on the rise, having won eight of their past nine bilateral series’ after developing a more aggressive approach that should suit them in Australian conditions.

A long and powerful batting-line up has been the key to their success, starting with Alex Hales and Jonny Bairstow who has forced his way into the 50-over side and looks set to keep Jason Roy on the sidelines. Captain Eoin Morgan and the prolific Joe Root have been nothing short of outstanding in the past year, averaging a combined 56.90 at a strike-rate of 94.94 which has been a constant source of prosperity for England. The visitors will miss Ben Stokes who was removed from the squad due to criminal charges still pending, however this could open up further opportunities for the likes of Sam Billings, Dawid Malan and Moeen Ali who experienced a difficult test series.

England’s bowling is less reliable than their batting and much will depend on how effective leg-spinner Adil Rashid is during the crucial middle overs. Otherwise their pace attack will be led by Chris Woakes, Mark Wood and Liam Plunkett, although David Willey, Tom Curran and Jake Ball are all likely to play a part in the series at some stage.

After a crushing Ashes defeat, this England side will be hoping to repeat the deeds of the 2007 team who overcame a whitewash in the test series to secure an unlikely victory in the ODI tournament.


Melbourne Cricket Ground

After a slow pitch was prepared for the Boxing Day test, expect a more free-flowing surface at the MCG on Sunday with 260 surpassed by the side batting first in three of the past five ODIs here. The side batting second has won three of the past four matches in Melbourne, while last year’s defeat to Pakistan was Australia’s first in this format at the MCG since 2012.


Key Stats

  • Australia have won only one of their past eight ODIs.
  • However Australia have won 25 of their last 27 ODIs at home.
  • England have won 15 of their past 17 ODIs.
  • England have also won their last four ODIs away from home.
  • England have won three of their last four ODIs against Australia.

The Verdict

The Australians are warm favourites to continue on their winning ways, with the market not giving England much respect despite their recent exploits in this format.

This series comes at an interesting time for the Aussies who seem to have been overtaken in many respects in the 50-over game, despite boasting a side on paper that looks truly formidable. Their bowling attack in particular is impressive with pace triumvirate Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins just as effective with white ball as red, however leg-spinner Zampa has struggled to assert himself in recent times, while you feel the fifth-bowling options provide by Marsh and Stoinis will be targeted. Similarly it’s hard to imagine England’s attack effectively curtailing the influences of Smith and Warner but thereafter question marks remain around the likes of Finch and Head who have shown promise but are yet to exhibit the sort of consistency required at this level, which leads me to believe that the hosts look a bit short here.

For England the big question is whether their explosive approach with the bat can subdue the effectiveness of Australia’s key quicks, although in the past Starc and Cummins have shown some frailty when attacked. The introduction of Hales, Morgan and co should hopefully freshen up the squad after the test series and they can take confidence from recent series wins abroad. The biggest challenge for the visitors will be for their pace attack to find any assistance from these Australian pitches, however in Rashid they do boast a proven match-winner in this format who has also tasted success on these shores during a BBL stint.

All things considered I do think the home side are too skinny so I will start by taking on Australia, although given their incredible record at home and concerns around England’s pace attack I will look to trade out and lock in some profit.


Betting Strategy

 LAY-to-BACK – Australia at 1.58 or better (trade out at 2.15 or bigger) for 1 unit.


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