Country Cups: Expert Tips and Analysis

4:40pm Race 6 — 2300m — Newcastle Cup

Track

Newcastle is a flat symmetrical track, approximately 2000m in circumference. The start point for the Cup is close to the top of the long home straight. Some rain is forecast so expect we hold around the official Soft 5 rating throughout the day. Light to moderate ESE winds which shouldn’t have too much effect on runners, however, giving slight favour to those off rail with cover in running.

Speed And Tactics

Hush Writer will press. Norway likely tags across. Herengawe can be handy drawn low. Query Attention Run and Paths Of Glory drawn out, positive? Expecting a little pressure early whilst they sort themselves out, then a moderate tempo for the most part of the race.

Summary

Mugatoo presents as the favourite with a figure strong enough this level. However, I anticipate the race to be run only moderately and out to 2300m, I’m not completely sold he can romp them as his quote suggests.

Herengawe comes through the same last race (Premiers Cup) and although he had all favours in running, the improvement out to that trip for the first time was excellent. I anticipate he improves again getting to 2300m today.

Hush Writer brings a different form line, coming through the Wyong Cup. That was first-up and there was tremendous merit given circumstances in running. He has returned extremely well and I think he is a strong chance of taking this race out consecutively.

Race Assessment

#1 Mugatoo. Assessed Price: $3.6
Sound winner in the Premiers Cup last start. Perfect trail behind what was only a moderate tempo. Had the better sprint and did sustain. Five weeks between runs there. Again sets up to settle forward of midfield. Marked favourite, however, unders.

#2 Hush Writer. Assessed Price: $6
Last year’s Cup winner, coming in off a similar prep set up. Strange race fresh in the Wyong Cup, where shuffled back in running after being up there early. Ending deep for the most part. Plenty of merit in the run. No question on fitness and likely holds his forward spot this time.

#11 Herengawe. Assessed Price: $13
Liked his run in the Premiers Cup when in a blanket go for the placings. Had an ideal trail, peeled early and boxed on strongly. The favourite, Mugatoo had his measure, however I expect this runner improves again getting out to this trip. Overs.

#9 The Lord Mayor. Assessed Price: $16
Genuine runner. Always around the mark at this level. Likely back the rail and will need luck. Enough in Wyong Cup run to say he’s again around the mark with any room in the straight.

#8 Paths Of Glory. Assessed Price: $17
Unexpectedly back in running in the Wyong Cup. Let the mess unfold and found space in the straight. Good win, all favours. This is tougher. Forward today? Or back and look to loop? Query set up.

#12 Attention Run. Assessed Price: $19
A little unlucky in running in the Wyong Cup. As stated with other runners, it was a muddling run race. Shuffled and caught behind runners when looking to build. Finishes closer and is going ok. Runner up in this race last year after working before sitting outside a good tempo. I’m sure they’re positive today and expecting around the mark.

#14 Aliferous. Assessed Price: $23
Has returned well, running on in three starts this time in. Tested at this range last year in the Qld Oaks and Derby. Likely back and finishing off again, however, needs a new peak to win.

#4 Carzoff. Assessed Price: $26
One of the better runs in the Grafton Cup at 2350m before a little freshen. Would have like to have seen a little more in the Premiers Cup last start. Boxed on fairly but did look pegged when the midfielders hit their straps. Would need to return to the form that saw him win this race in 2018.

#6 Big Duke. Assessed Price: $51
Long time between wins and not returning figures to warrant too much thought here.

#13 Sweet Thomas. Assessed Price: $61
Fresh into this and will box on. A few of these a bit sharper.

#10 Grey Lion. Assessed Price: $81
Up in trip about the only positive. Hasn’t shown enough this time in.

#7 Norway. Assessed Price: $101
One batted in Premier Cup. Likely carts across to find a handy spot. Not expecting enough improvement between runs.

#3 Azuro. Assessed Price: $101
Likely needs this after just a pass mark in the Premiers Cup. Maps well.

#15 Zacada. Assessed Price: $201
Would go against logic if wins.

#17 Nothing Too Hard. Assessed Price: $330
No luck last start, however better suited on country circuit. Likely outclassed.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Hush Writer 1.5 units

BACK (EW)  — Herengawe for 0.25 units each-way