Country Cups: Expert Tips and Analysis

4:25 pm Race 8 — 2000m — Ballarat Cup

Track

1900m in circumference, with a long 450m home straight. The Cup start point (2000m) has only a moderate run before turning out of the home straight. Conditions look to be fine and expecting an even playing surface.

Speed And Tactics

Tempo looks to be strong. Our Big Mike, Inverloch and if Knights Order can sneak in, he too will ensure this is very truly run.

Summary

Wide open race with a few having had their Grand Finals. You can arguably make a case for more than half the field.

Have settled on AL GALAYEL, GAME KEEPER and to a lesser extent, KINGS WILL DREAM. Al Galayel pulled up lame in the Coongy Cup to snap a streak of solid rating runs. Not overly concerned with the gap between runs given that and especially from this stable.

From a map perspective, he gets every chance to bounce back. Game Keeper can peak here with a bit left in the spring tank. He was entitled to finish closer last start and is another that can settle behind a good tempo and finish off.

Kings Will Dream appears held back for this. He was sound when back in trip last start where the pattern was against. Much better suited here. Just where he settles is the main query.

Race Assessment

#4 JUNIPAL. Assessed Price: $6

He is racing in career best form. He stalked a hot tempo last week and put them away. Jury is out whether he runs the trip but can’t see a good reason why he won’t. If he does, he’s in the finish.

#3 KINGS WILL DREAM. Assessed Price: $9

Was sound when back in trip at Moonee Valley where distance and pattern weren’t ideal. Appears as if he has been held back for this and he’s most certainly up to it.

#5 AL GALAYEL. Assessed Price: $12

Pulled up lame last time to end a run where he was completely airborne. The break between runs is less of an issue for this stable who often find a way. Suspect he will be in the finish.

#10 AFFAIR TO REMEMBER. Assessed Price: $14

She made good of plenty of promise when ripping home in the Matriarch. She possesses a sharp turn of foot, the challenge for her is it’s harder now against the boys. Hard to knock.

#14 GAME KEEPER. Assessed Price: $14

I thought he was entitled to finish a touch closer last time when not everything panned out. Another who has kept a bit in the spring tank for this race and may be set to peak.

#20 PARADEE. Assessed Price: $14

Was very good in the Matriarch when nutted on the line by Affair To Remember. If she sneaks in, she must be in the same conversation as the other mare.

#9 PLEIN CIEL. Assessed Price: $19

Continues to close off his races in solid fashion. Good draw and an astute camp. Would really need to hit his peak.

#17 IRISH FLAME. Assessed Price: $19

Impossible to knock this fellow who hasn’t had everything go right his last two but keeps finding a way. Another at double figures who can figure with even luck.

#1 SO SI BON. Assessed Price: $21

He was ridden a treat with a well-timed run last week. Quick back up suggests he’s come through it well, however he has an enormous impost, question mark at the trip, and with what looks a true staying test, I suspect he will need to go to a new level.

#15 DOUBLE YOU TEE. Assessed Price: $21

He had a less glamorous lead up than several of these. Whilst beaten in the Kyneton Cup, the rider erred going inside in the inferior ground and he probably should have saluted. Light weight and is in the mix.

#7 PACODALI. Assessed Price: $31

He was held up a fraction last time when thereabouts. I doubt he was going to figure there but the one thing in his favour is that he does look to get a very economical run.

#11 ODEON. Assessed Price: $31

Incredibly honest horse who is finding it hard to break through. In his favour is a good draw. It’s likely beyond him, however he is usually thereabouts.

#13 FURRION. Assessed Price: $51

Got the blinkers last time and I expected some improvement but it wasn’t forthcoming. They come off here but jury is out if he can recapture his best.

#2 HARLEM. Assessed Price: $51

Former dual Australian Cup winner who appears a length or two below his best. He will appreciate the stronger tempo but seems to do his best work with a suck run and suspect his options are limited from this gate.

#8 INVERLOCH. Assessed Price: $71

One of the go forward horses. Disappointing last time and doubt he is going well enough.

#6 KIWIA. Assessed Price: $101

Trying to make history going for 3 on the bounce. Stable is absolutely on fire but he appears to be short of his best.

#12 OUR BIG MIKE. Assessed Price: $201

He did a good job winning the Moe cup two back. The likely leader but this is much harder.

#19 KNIGHTS ORDER. Assessed Price: $251

If he gets a run will inject some speed but that is likely to be all he does.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Al Galayel for 1 unit

BACK (WIN) — Game Keeper for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Kings Will Dream for 0.5 units