Country Cups: Expert Tips and Analysis

3:25pm | Scone Race 6 | 1400m

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Track

For the Dark Jewel Classic, the 1400m start point has a generous run to the first turn, giving all runners a chance to find their position. Expect the track is closer to a Good 4 come meeting start time. Setting up with the advantage slightly forward of midfield, however not anticipating a notable bias.

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Speed And Tactics

Expect a moderate tempo with Margie Bee forward from the low draw and Irithea looking to cross. Bright Rubick and Electric Girl are two drawn outside middle that may press the issue, enforcing some early pressure.

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Summary

Wide open race with a few having had their Grand Finals. You can arguably make a case for more than half the field.

Have settled on AL GALAYEL, GAME KEEPER and to a lesser extent, KINGS WILL DREAM. Al Galayel pulled up lame in the Coongy Cup to snap a streak of solid rating runs. Not overly concerned with the gap between runs given that and especially from this stable.

From a map perspective, he gets every chance to bounce back. Game Keeper can peak here with a bit left in the spring tank. He was entitled to finish closer last start and is another that can settle behind a good tempo and finish off.

Kings Will Dream appears held back for this. He was sound when back in trip last start where the pattern was against. Much better suited here. Just where he settles is the main query.

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Race Assessment

#1 Missile Mantra. Assessed Price: $6.00
Has clearly come back very well this prep, running sound figures fresh when winning over 1200m. She was ok last start when stepping to 1400m behind just an even tempo. Like her sticking at the trip third-up.

#4 Rocha Clock. Assessed Price: $7.20
Coming off a win at 1400m in ok figures. Race set up perfectly there and will need to turn an improved figure in order to go back and sprint past a few of these. Chance, unders.

#6 Jen Rules. Assessed Price: $7.50
All efforts even this prep before a positive ride in the Hawkesbury Crown, boxing on soundly from the front. Forced hand there due to being caught deep early, however, I’d expect they attempt similar or at least show intent early today. The obvious query is the extra 100m, however, ridden in different vain may see that risk mitigated to an extent.

#13 Air To Air. Assessed Price: $10
She is suited drawn out, going straight back and looking to finish off. Obviously she is at the mercy of the front runners but I do think that has been priced in enough to consider her as a play. Her closing figures will measure up should the race pan out.

#12 More Prophets. Assessed Price: $10
Will be closer in running out to this trip and whilst I think she can progress to this level, I’m not sure she gets 1400m as strong as a few of these just yet. Solid run behind Lost and Running when fresh has her priced quite tight.

#2 Reelem In Ruby. Assessed Price: $12.50
Not convinced she’s going that well and that line of thought likely backed up by her lead in trials off a long break. She was ok last start at 1300m, unable to cross to the rail, which was advantageous in running on the day. Sets up ok but more wary than pushing.

#10 Electric Girl. Assessed Price: $15
Not a lot of room in the Provincial Championship and whilst not ever winning, the margin needs to be adjusted. Versatile and may be one of the runners to press early. Expect she’s around the mark and priced about right.

#3 Irithea. Assessed Price: $19
Afforded every chance last start and although she was slightly disadvantaged off rails in running, you would have liked to see a little more. Dreaded hoof filler.

#9 Akari. Assessed Price: $20
Boxed on evenly in the Hawkesbury Crown. Enough merit given her PIR, however would’ve liked to see more late. Has to find a few points to figure.

#14 Strawb. Assessed Price: $24
Sound win resuming over 1200m with the race being run in favour. Likely in clutter and does need a new peak to measure up.

#5 Asiago. Assessed Price: $25
Another mare that just doesn’t seem to have come up of late. Two starts before a 10-week break, trialling in similar vain prior to her last first-up effort, which wasn’t great. Her rating has gone the wrong way from late 19’ to early 20’.

#7 She Shao Fly. Assessed Price: $28
She can improve off last start when not really having enough room to get into her work. I’d expect closer in running today and has a figure to be around the mark. Right price.

#15 Margie Bee. Assessed Price: $301
Here for tempo only.

#16 Bright Rubick. Assessed Price: $301
Highly unlikely.

#17 Holy Empress. Assessed Price: $301
No.

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Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) — Jen Rules for 0.5 units each way

BACK (EW) — Air To Air for 0.5 units each way