Country Cup Race Assessments

The Race Club will dissect each Country Cup, giving their Country Cup tips and insights into how they expect the race to pan and deliver a rated price to each runner.

Check out the Hub weekly for NSW Country Cup tips throughout the remainder of the year.

Also every Tuesday & Thursday The Race Club also offer up two of their very best BACK & LAY selections.

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 28.35

Total Units Returned: 27.24

ROI: -3.93%

4.54pm Race 7 – 1600m – Coonamble Cup

Coonamble track is a two-turn, two-straight track with a home straight of around 420m. The Cup starts out of a chute to the left of the winning post, they have a straight run of under 300m before they hit the 1st turn which takes them into the back straight, then when they’re about 750-800m from home, they enter the turn that brings them into the home straight. The track is basically flat all the way around.

Speed and Tactics

Falcon Island & Cowboys Karma should settle 1-2 with Hammond Lane, Rock Sonic & Bravissimo following, then Welcome Art, Chilcotin and Magic Over The Bay around midfield with the remainder in the 2nd half of the field.

Race Assessment

Falcon Island – Assessed $2.50.

Class runner of race and current short-priced favourite. If they let him control up front then they’ll struggle to run him down. Concern is he can be a hard going horse and also rider not known for riding leaders.

Hammond Lane – Assessed $7.00.

Looks to get a nice run tracking the leaders with in form rider up. He has a good hope if the fave is worked or does something wrong in run.

Cowboys Karma – Assessed $12.00.

He’s an 8yo who is 8 from 38 with 2 from 7 at this distance. He crosses from a wide gate to either sit 2nd or possibly even make a play for the lead. Had he been the only leader, then chances would’ve been better.

All But Gone – Assessed $12.00.

He is 1st up off a 10-week break but did win well at Kembla off a 5-week break at last start. He will be closer last than 1st in the run, but should they overdo it up front, he’ll be getting home as well as any of them. Looks overs

Magic Over The Bay – Assessed $14.00.

Was ok in running 3rd in the Bathurst Cup over 1800m at his last run and 2nd in Dubbo Cup run prior. Has G. Ryan up and a chance with the right run.

Bravissimo – Assessed $15.00.

Consistent gelding, but only won 3 times and only up to 1350. Had two goes at distance for two duck eggs, so may struggle to run 1600 strongly.

Welcome Art – Assessed $20.00.

Handy galloper who’s three from 10 at the distance. Last run was a fair 4th btn over 5L in Bathurst Cup, but he did have a nice run in transit, should get similar here and has a place chance.

Most Exalted – Assessed $25.00.

Backmarker who at his best would be a hope in this, but hasn’t won in over 2 years, so will need to be close to his best and then need a bit of luck to win this.

Rock Sonic – Assessed $40.00.

Only a lightly gelding that’s won 3 from 12, but 2 of them were on Heavy tracks. He should roll forward and he may even press for the lead, as his rider is a handlebars down rider. Strongest field he’s met, hard to have.

Free Billy – Assessed $40.00.

Backmarker who’s drawn wide, so he’ll go back and need a bit to go right for him to figure against these

Chilcotin – Assessed $120.00.

He’s 3rd up in this, will appreciate the distance rise but not the class rise. Can’t have him in this.

Quick Spin – Assessed $200.00.

Another backmarker that looks totally outclassed in this field

Betting Strategy

It depends on what rider elects to do on Cowboys Karma, whether he’s happy to let Falcon Island lead at his own tempo, or does he apply pressure when he crosses from outside draw.

Should he be happy to let the fave dictate then they’ll struggle to run the fave down, however, should he apply a bit of pressure, then that’ll assist the chances of Hammond Lane, Welcome Art, Magic Over The Bay, All But Gone and a couple other backmarkers.

 BACK (WIN) – All But Gone for 0.5 units

 BACK (PLACE) – All But Gone for 1.5 units

5.35pm Race 8 – 1800m – Cootamundra Cup

The track is approximately 1800m in circumference with a home straight of around 340m. The Cup start is out of a chute to the left of the winning post.

They have a straight run of about 300m before they turn into the back straight, then at around the 800m mark, they turn into the side straight which brings them to a short tight home turn leaving them with round 340m run to the line.

Speed and Tactics

Parliament should find the early lead & expect Old Man’s Angel rolls forward from wide draw. Grasp, Titaness, Arrows Destiny & Charlie Royale settle midfield. Danetrille, Onthetake settle back.

Gentleman Max has drawn outside gate so either goes straight to rear or presses. Pace shouldn’t be overly strong.

Race Assessment

Charlie Royale – Assessed $9.00.

Lining up for start 80, has won 2 from 18 at the distance, hasn’t won for 12 months though, but is 4th up in this & his 3 runs this time have had some merit. One of the dangers to the fave.

Gentleman Max – Assessed $7.00.

7 yo iron horse lining up for start 105, has won 14 races but all on Soft or Heavy, with 11 of them being on the Heavy. No wins from 57 starts on the dry, but did run 5th only btn 1.94L in the Dubbo Cup on a Good 3, due to weakness of field, that gives him a hope.

Arrows Destiny – Assessed $12.00.

Is 3rd up in this, 1st 2 runs back were over unsuitable distances, will appreciate getting out to 1600 & looks a fair hope.

Parliament – Assessed $2.45.

Looks the horse they all have to beat, 1600 suits, has a nice draw, is an on pacer which is the right racing style to for this track.

Danetrille – Assessed $26.00.

Even though this isn’t the strongest of fields, he’d need to lift from his current form.

Onthetake – Assessed $14.00.

At his best he’d be very hard to beat, but been out of form for a while & he’s a backmarker so not ideally suited around this track.

Titaness – Assessed $40.00.

She’s had 3 goes at the 1600 for 3 duck eggs. She’s drawn a nice gate & may get nice run in transit, but that may not be enough.

Old Man’s Angel – Assessed $9.00.

Has won 3 from 10 at the distance, rolls forward so will be in right spot in run & looks one of the threats to the fave if things go her way.

Grasp – Assessed $60.00.

He’s the worst in at the weights by 10.5 kgs, so hard to seem him figuring even allowing for gate 1.

Betting Strategy

Horses 1 to 6 are weighted to their BM, the rest are badly in from 2kgs, all the way down to Grasp who is 10.5 kgs worse off.

Overall it’s quite an ordinary lineup. Parliament has won 2 from 4 with a 3rd placing at the distance, he has an inside draw, will lead or box seat & looks the horse to beat.

 BACK (WIN) – Parliament for 1 unit

 BACK (WIN) – Arrows Destiny for 0.5 units

4.53pm Race 7 – 1800m – Bathurst Cup

Bathurst is a relatively tight track, approximately 1600m in circumference. The Cup starts around the 200m mark, so they have a relatively short run before they hit the turn out of the home straight.

They’re turning for around 380m and it takes them into the back straight that is approx 380m in length. They then enter the turn out of the back straight and are turning for about 480m until they straighten up for the 340m run home.

The track suits on pacers over all distances due to it being a tight track.

Speed and Tactics

Expect a line of three or four going into the first turn. Sunday Swindler should press from wide draw, Dynamic Dynasty, Zaunkonig go forward, Colonial Reign from gate holds prominent spot and Great Glen may also press from wide out.

Welcome Art, Helstar, Subway Surfer and Magic Over The Bay hold midfield to seconnd half of the field spots. Dream Habit, Steamin’ and Lucky Elixir should settle at the tail.

Race Assessment

In rated price order.

Great Glen – Assessed $4.00.

GB import that started in Australia with Chris Waller, now with third trainer. Although he hasn’t won below 2100, he gets a postive rider change, will race on pace and meets a weak field which gives him a good hope.

Zaunkonig – Assessed $5.50.

The most lightly raced horse in the race with 26 starts. Is yet to win beyond 1550, but has run 3rd btn 1.1L over 2000 in a BM 82 city Saturday race. He is down considerably in class and will race in a forward spot which brings him into contention.

Steamin’ – Assessed $6.00.

Is racing in good form winning the Forbes Cup four runs back and the 100k Dubbo Cup last run both over 1600. Being a backmarker he’s not suited to this track, but the weak field and G.Ryan steering gives him a hope if he gets luck from back in the field.

Magic Over The Bay – Assessed $6.00.

Ran 4th in the Narromine cup two runs back, then 2nd to Steamin’ in the Dubbo Cup where he was a touch unlucky after going wide and being slightly held up at 400. He meets the winner 4kgs better and may get better run in transit it, good hope if he does.

Welcome Art – Assessed $18.00.

Going into this 2nd up off an ordinary run over 1400m 1st up. He’s drawn the rails and will need things to go right, but has some claim.

Helstar – Assessed $20.00.

Last start well btn 8th in Dubbo cup where he only whacked away. He has won over 2200, so the 1800 will suit better than the 1600. He should settle midfield or better and has a hope with right run.

Dynamic Dynasty – Assessed $24.00.

He’s a winner over this T&D. This is his 4th run this prep, so has freshness on his side and is another that will race on pace or forward of midfield. Has some claims due the weakness of field.

Sunday Swindler – Assessed $26.00.

Is one of the bolters and he’s probably the best chance out of them, as he’ll press forward and if they let him lead on his own then he may hold on for a place.

Lucky Elixer – Assessed $66.00.

Dual 2400m winner, will be at the rear in run and need an awful lot to go right for him and a lot wrong for the ones in the market.

Colonial Reign – Assessed $66.00.

Drawn a nice gate and has rider that rides this track ok. Those are about the only positives I can find for him.

Subway Surfer – Assessed $101.00.

Has only won 5 from 72 and it’s been 11 months since he last won one. Think his record will be 5 from 73 after this.

Dream Habit – Assessed $101.00.

For anyone who’s playing the Odds, Evens or Split bet type, he’s #13, so he can only be part of the Odds or the Split. He’ll be no help to either combination.

Betting Strategy

A pretty average field lining up in this with only saddlecloth numbers 1 to 4 carrying their BM weight. A BM of 71 is the correct BM for the limit weight of 54kgs. Every horse in this carrying 54 kgs has a lower BM than 71, so they all come in badly, from Magic Over The Bay who is only 0.5 kgs
worse off, all the way down to Dream Habit who is 13.5 kgs worse off.

Overall it’s a pretty rugged lineup. Going with Zaunkonig and Great Glen to win with Sunday Swindler a place in a race where a couple of others at the top of the market not ideally suited to this layout.

 BACK (WIN) – Great Glen for 1 unit

 BACK (WIN) – Zaunkonig for 0.5 units

 BACK (PLACE) – Sunday Swindler for 0.5 units

4.40 pm Race 7 – 2300m – Newcastle Cup

Newcastle is a flat track a tick over 2000m in circumference. It’s a two-turn, two-straight track, with a home straight of a tick over 400m. The cup start starts in home straight with around 300m until they hit the 1st turn which is just over 500m in length, they then enter back straight with a run of a tick over 500m, then they start the sweeping bend for home. The track can play to leaders but when playing fair it comes down to tempo.

Speed and Tactics

Expect Hush Writer takes up the early running, Our Candidate, Our Century, Vaucluse Bay and Saunter Boy also on pace. Mawaany Macine and Exoteric may both hold closer spots from their inside draws, as may Master Of Arts. The rest will have to sort themselves out in the 2nd half of the field.

Race Assessment

In rated price order.

Our Candidate – Assessed $3.30.

The short-priced favourite who only a C1 over 2100 at Wyong 4 runs back, but then bolted in at his last 2 runs in Saturday BM 78 grade. Comes in 7kgs badly at the weights but is a young stayer on the rise, so wise to be a bit forgiving in his case. He’s a big hope.

Hush Writer – Assessed $5.50.

Coming into this off a good 2nd in the Wyong Cup. Will appreciate the extra 200m, but will also want a dry surface. T.Clark rides and if he’s left to control the tempo is right in it if on a Good surface.

Red Cardinal – Assessed $10.00.

1st up in this, but has won three from seven 1st up. He’s trialled twice and gone well in both. Will handle any surface and if they overdo it upfront then he’s the horse to hold out.

Our Century – Assessed $20.00.

He’s 2nd up in this off an ordinary effort 1st up in the Wyong Cup, but he went back at the start in a race dominated by the on pacers, so it was a forget run. Expect he races a lot closer in this and has a hope.

Azuro – Assessed $20.00.

1st up off a 62 day freshen up. He did win off a 35 day freshen over 3200 on a Heavy, then followed that winning the 3200m Qld Cup on a Good 3 by 3.75L. Drawn wide, does he go forward or back? May find this tick short, but a hope with the right run.

Vaucluse Bay – Assessed $20.00.

Handy stayer but only won five from 44. He was a fair 3rd taking ground off 1st & 2nd in Wyong Cup. Has placed in a Grafton Cup and has a hope with the right run.

Attention Run – Assessed $20.00.

Another who is also 7kgs badly off at the weights, but is also only lightly raced winning three from 11. Will handle any going. Gets K.McEvoy and not without a hope with the right run despite being poorly in at the weights.

The Good Fight – Assessed $20.00.

2nd emergency and needs another scratching to gain a start, but comes in very poorly at the weights. Seems quite short in the market considering he prefers it Soft to Heavy, also how badly he comes in and how strong the field is.

Master Of Arts – Assessed $31.00.

Ran 9th btn 4.61L in Wyong Cup, but the run was better than it looked, as he was with the tailenders all way to turn and then raced a touch tight when making ground late. Extra 200 a plus and looks a better hope than his odds suggest.

Mongolian Wolf – Assessed $34.00.

He too comes out of the Wyong Cup. Was on the back of Vaucluse Bay in run and worked home ok. Drawn wide, so will need a bit of luck, but think there a few others in same colours with a better hope.

Exoteric – Assessed $40.00.

Was fair in running on ok into 8th btn 3.45L in Wyong Cup. Drawn a nice gate, does go ok on Good but would prefer a Soft surface. Rough hope with the right run.

Saunter Boy – Assessed $40.00.

He’s off a 62-day break. He’s a winner over 2800 in Eurpoe and Listed placed over same distance. His form has been fair without being great since coming to Aus. Is 2.5kgs badly in, but has low draw and good apprentice up. Some hope with right run.

Sweet Thomas – Assessed $50.00.

Has only had the one run in Aus. He raced midfield and only whacked to run 6th btn 6.7L to Wu Gok on a Heavy surface. He looks better suited on dry, but hard to get a good line on him due to only seeing him once.

Mawaany Machine – Assessed $50.00.

He was ordinary at his last run over 1900 at Rosehill, but it was a race won on pace and he was at the rear all way. He’s drawn a low gate that should see him settle closer in run, but would need a lot to go right to beat these.

Destiny’s Kiss – Assessed $60.00.

One of two 11YOs in race, still racing ok but 14 of his 19 wins have come on Soft or Heavy going. Unlikely to get that here, so only has a bolter’s hope.

Betting Strategy

Saddlecloths 1 to 7 are all weighted correctly to their respective BM rating. From there, Hush Writer is only 0.5kgs worse off, then all the way down to The Good Fight who is 9kgs worse off.

Normally Chris Waller has the weight of numbers in staying events, but it’s the Australian Bloodstock syndications that have the numbers covered with 7 of the 15 runners carrying their colours. They look to have a very good hand in it as well with a few of them having live chances.

This would go close to one of the most open Newcastle Cup fields in recent times and quite a strong one as well.

 BACK (WIN) – Red Cardinal for 0.5 units

 BACK (WIN) – Master Of Arts for 0.1 units

 BACK (PLACE) – Master Of Arts for 0.4 units

Note: If track is Good 4 or better, I’ll also be having 1u to win on Hush Writer.

5.05 pm Race 8 – 1400m – Lismore Cup

Lismore track is approximately 1600m in circumference. The Cup starts out of a chute at the top of the straight, they have a straight run of approx 550m until they hit the turn out of the straight.

The 1st part of the turn is quite a sharp 90 degree turn & they’re turning for around 400m until they enter the back straight with a straight run of around 250m, then they enter the long sweeping 570m slightly downhill turn that brings them into the home straight with approx 350m run to the line which is very slightly uphill.

You normally want to be within 3L of leaders at 600 unless it’s a fast run race.

Speed and Tactics

Amibitious Prince should roll forward from wide out, Winkler, Fencourt, Sckam, Ocean Addict Lookin’ At You & Kuttamurra Al should all hold forward to midfield spots, then Peak Hill, with I’ll Miss You, Art Attack & Partnership at the rear.

From the last 5 runs of 11 runners, in only 6 of 55 runs have any of them settled in the 1st 2 in run early. The fave Ocean Addict did 2 runs back when 2nd to Ilwendo over 2200 at Eagle Farm. Fencourt did 5 runs back over 2000m, but has settled off pace at last 4 runs.

Winkler has led twice & raced on pace in other 3 runs. Ambitious Prince was 2nd in run when winning 2 back over 2000 at Taree, then raced on pace in Tuncurry Cup at last run over this distance. Lookin’ At You & Sckam the other 2.

Race Assessment

In rated price order.

I’ll Miss You – Assessed $5.20.

She was a solid winner over 1610m at Grafton last time out, it came off a 40 day freshen up & now backs up in this 9 days later. I give her a hope, but she’s drawn the outside & probably goes back. Fave coming out has helped.

Ambitious – Assessed $7.00.

Will roll forward from wide draw & possibly take the lead, if left to control the tempo then can figure. His last run was a 4th btn 3.85L in the Tuncurry Cup, where he had a nice run in transit, but it was stronger than this lineup.

Winkler – Assessed $8.00.

Ran 2nd to Peak Hill at his last start & thought his run was better than the winners, as he was well back settling, then made a run 3 wide from the 1000 to be OSL 3 wide at 600, hit lead 3 wide turning & only headed at 100.

Kuttamurra Al – Assessed $8.50

3 runs back was 2nd in a BM 75 at Toowoomba over 1625m. Will appreciate the extra trip & looks like he gets a fair run in transit. Has a hope but think he’ll need luck to beat Ocean Addict.

Peak Hill – Assessed $8.50

Last start winner over 1900 at Ballina where he had a nice run throughout to beat Winkler. Rise in class here.

Fencourt – Assessed $10.00

Last start winner of an average BM 66 over 2020 at Murwillumbah, but did record strong closing figures in winning. With the right run in this is a hope at double figures.

Art Attack – Assessed $12.00

Having 4th run this prep & getting out to right trip, but will be at the rear giving most of them a start, will need a bit of pace on & may not get it, a hope if he does.

Partnership – Assessed $14.00

Only lightly raced & won 2 from 10, both in country. Last prep had 4 runs in strong city 3yo races, but was outlassed in them. He will get back & need luck.

Looking at You – Assessed $25.00

Hasn’t won in well over 2 years & although it ran ok from the rear to run 4th btn 2.18L to Peak Hill at last start, the tempo suited. Hard to see it figuring in this.

Sckam – Assessed $60.00

Won an average BM 58 at Kempsey over 1900m at last start, but hard to see it figuring & is also the worst in at the weights by some 9kgs.

Betting Strategy

With Ocean Addict coming out it has opened the race right up & luck in the run will play a big part in the outcome.

I’ll Miss You has the outside draw with an apprentice riding, had she drawn a gate, it would’ve enhanced her chances, if she can get in to a 1 out spot with more than a couple behind her, then she has a hope, but would need a better run in transit than the fave to beat it.

Ambitious Prince will roll forward & if he can get a nice run in transit, then that gives him a hope.

 BACK (WIN) – I’ll Miss You for 0.5 units

 BACK (PLACE) – Ambitious Prince for 0.5 units

4:30pm Race 8 – 1600m – Dubbo Cup

Not the strongest lineup for a Cup race carrying 100k prizemoney, but quite an open race with a few chances nonetheless. Dubbo track is approx 1900m in circumference with a long home straight of close to 430m.

The 1600m start is off a chute off the back straight, they have a straight run of close to 600m before they hit the 1st turn & from there they’re turning all the way until they straighten up for home.

From entering the turn out of the back straight, they turn for approx 570m and it’s a downhill run dropping some 10m from entering it to leaving it at top of straight, then they climb approx 6m from top of straight to WP.

Even though it has a long home straight and is an uphill run home, it still tends to favour the on pacers, due to the entire turn being a downhill run

Speed Map

Expect Sugar Dance rolls forward from outside gate with Any Blinkin’ Day and Cowboys Karma. They look the first three settling. Outta Space should also hold a fairly handy spot, with Mr Dumont, Helstar and Chivadahlii not far away.

Race Assessment

In rated price order.

Mr Dumont – Assessed $6.00.

Former Qld galloper now trained on track and has had 2 runs for 2 solid wins for new trainer. He has drawn well, will settle front half of midfield or a touch closer & is the horse to beat with the right run in transit.

Sugar Dance – Assessed $8.00.

Bolted in leading all the way over 1400 at Mudgee last start with an apprentice rider ND she rides it again in this. No doubt girl presses again from wide gate, but may get company. If left alone then can win.

Artistic Beauty – Assessed $8.00.

Trip is ideal for her as she has won four from 11 at this distance. She should settle around midfield and is one of the better chances now that she gets to her preferred trip.

Most Exalted – Assessed $10.00

Will be 2nd half of midfield in run and will be getting home as well as anything if the expected solid tempo eventuates.

Chivadahlii – Assessed $11.00

Well-traveled 8yo but does have his share of ability. Was a fair 1st up 5th btn 4.08L in Coffs Harbour Cup. This is considerably weaker and must also be one of the hopes with right run in transit.

Magic Over The Bay – Assessed $12.00

Will settle around midfield, gets leading apprentice R.Dolan doing the steering and is one of the chances with the right run.

Steamin’ – Assessed $14.00

Forbes Cup winner over this distance three runs back. He’ll be with the tailenders in run, will be running home well if the speed is on and does have G.Ryan up. One of the hopes if they overdo it up front.

Helstar – Assessed $14.00

Comes in poorly at the weights but is racing well and has drawn a nice gate. 1600 is ideal trip and also goes well at this track with a T&D record of 6:2-1-1. Even though he’s badly in, I give him a chance.

Cowboys Karma – Assessed $17.00

Won twice with another two placings over this distance. He is another that’ll be on pace and that is normally preferred place to be around here, but they may go too hard and that’ll affect him late.

Gentleman Max – Assessed $24.00

Grows a leg in the wet, but will be on a good surface here. He is still has a hope with the right run.

Any Blinkin Day – Assessed $24.00

Has won three from 13 over this distance. Will be one of the leaders in a race that looks like will be solidly run. If it is then he’ll find it tough to hold off the run ons.

Outta Space – Assessed $66.00

Should settle in an pace spot, but she’s up in class and comes in terribly at the weights. She’d need a lot to go right to even run a place.

Zagaya – Assessed $100.00

Ex Vic horse who had his first run in NSW for a battling 7th of 11 btn 5.85 to Sugar Dance over 1400 at Mudgee. Looks to get a fair run in transit but would need to lift considerably to figure in this.

Laugharne – Assessed $100.00

Been out of form for a long time and can’t see him figuring here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Mr Dumont for 1 unit

 BACK (PLACE) – Helstar for 0.5 units

4.35 pm Race 5 – 1400m – Wyong Cup

16 runners around the tight Wyong track, one thing is for certain, there’ll be some hard luck stories in it with a few unlikely of getting closer than 3 wide the trip. With over half the field being off pacers/backmarkers, it looks like there’ll be.

A bigger traffic jam for spots in the back half of the field than the front half. Overall a very tough race.

Speed and Tactics

Stampede looks the early leader, his stablemate Hush Writer goes forward from wide draw, as does Our Century. 3 of Wallers that should also settle fairly close to pace, are Hogmanay, Wu Gok & Vaucluse Bay.

Duca Vaeltinois should also be in the front half of field. From there on, the traffic jam starts. Unless there is a mid-race move by a horse trapped wide, the tempo may not be overly solid, suiting those in the front half of the field.

Race Assessment

In rated price order.

Stampede – Assessed $3.90.

Looks the early leader & horse to beat. He is 4th up in this coming off a good run last start where he led & was run down late by Wolfe who he conceded 10kgs to.

Sixties Groove – Assessed $9.00.

Is 1st up off a 90 day break, 1st up last prep he ran a good 3rd in the Hawkesbury Cup over 1600, then placed at G1 level & won the G2 Brisbane Cup at 4th run in prep. Has drawn wide, but gets Nash up & will need a good steer from the gate.

Wu Gok – Assessed $10.00.

Racing in good form, but it’s been on wet tracks & he is far better when on the wet. Drawn well, gets a nice run in transit, but he isn’t as effective on a Good surface. Seems a bit short in market considering that.

Blue Breeze – Assessed $13.00.

NZ horse who has placed in G1-2-3 company so no doubt has his share of ability. Last run before a spell was for a 3rd in the G1 Auckland Cup over 3200. He’s 2nd up in this off a win over 1400m 1st up.

Duca Valentinois – Assessed $14.50.

Has drawn a nice gate to get a good run in transit, is racing in fair form, will appreciate the step up to 2100 & a chance with the right run.

Our Century – Assessed $16.00.

He is 1st up off a 33 week break, he did win 1st up over 1900 at Rosehill last prep. He’s had 2 trials leading into this. Has a wide gate but should press & race on pace

Hush Writer – Assessed $16.00.

Stablemate of the Stampede, expect he presses forward from the draw, will be suited by Good surface. He was a very good winner over 2400 1st up racing on pace in solidly run race, the query is will the trip be a touch short for him.

High Opinion – Assessed $20.00.

Was a solid closing 4th behind Wolfe over 1800m at his last run. Has drawn wide out, but if he can get a half decent run in transit, I think he is aa good hope at big odds.

All Too Soon – Assessed $23.00.

Is yet to win beyond 1800m, but does look like she’ll handle this trip. Her form is better on affected, but does go ok on dry. With the right run she is another of the many hopes in this race if things fall her way.

Hogmanay – Assessed $23.00.

Taree Cup winner at his last start, this is a class rise for him, but he too is drawn to get a nice run in an on pace spot & K.McEvoy does the steering.

Vaucluse Bay – Assessed $30.00.

Looks to get a nice run in transit, will handle the trip no problem & is another that can figure due to expected good run he looks likely to get.

Mongolian Wolf – Assessed $40.00.

Solid 2nd to Hogmanay in the Taree Cup, this is a rise in class, but he too is 1 of the hopes with the right run.

Exoteric – Assessed $44.00.

One of 5 Waller runners in the race, should settle around midfield & not without a hope of running into placings with a good run in transit.

Master of Arts – Assessed $50.00.

Fresh off a 48 day break, trialed ok leading into this, is probably more effective over further, but is a roughie that looks to have a slightly better hope than current odds of 101.00 suggests.

Dagny – Assessed $60.00.

Most likely settles 2nd half of the field, is only racing fairly & would need a lot to go his way to win this.

Destiny’s Kiss – Assessed $80.00.

11 yo gelding that is far better on a wet surface, will get back & need a lot to go right for him & wrong for the others to figure.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Stampede for 1 unit

 BACK (WIN) – Hush Writer for 0.2 units

 BACK (WIN) – High Opinion for 0.1 unit to win and 0.3 to place

3.25 pm Race 5 – 1400m – Moree Cup

Moree is quite a big track, being approximately 2000m in circumference with a home straight of 370m. The Cup start is in the back straight with about a 400m run before they hit the 1st turn which takes them into a short side straight of about 200m before they start turning for home.

Moree has had zero rainfall for the entire month of August, yet surprisingly the track was originally rated a Soft 5, has since been upgraded to a Good 4

Speed and Tactics

Only a field of 7 going around, but 3 of them on pacers, so there is a possibility that they could run along. The 3 being Desert Marshal, Oh Why & Crim. Chalmers should settle behind them with Upstart, Free Billy & Mysticism at the rear.

I expect Oh Why & Desert Marshal to pair off early. Crim was ridden off the pace last run & she won, so they may decide to do the same again in this. Upstart has drawn the outside so most likely goes back.

Race Assessment

In rated price order.

Only Mysticism (+0.5kg) & Free Billy (+1kg) are carrying above their BM rating.

Chalmers – Assessed $2.50.

Has won 4 from 23 & even though he hasn’t won below 1450, he has placed in the 500k Prov championships at this distance, he has the strongest formlines in the race & if anywhere near his best, they’ll struggle to beat him.

Oh Why – Assessed $4.50.

Has won 9 from 23 with 6 of those being at this distance. He has won his last 3 starts in country class & his BM has gone up 12 points because of it, looks a bit close to the fave in the weights, but if left to control the race is the danger.

Upstart – Assessed $10.00.

Has won 8 from 32 at distances from 900 to 1300. He too has won at past 3 starts in the country & his BM has also gone up 12 points. He’s had 2 goes at 1400 for 2 duck eggs, so would need a good run in transit to win this.

Crim – Assessed $12.00.

Has won 5 from 17 overall with 3 from 6 at the distance. She has won her last 2 over the distance in country BM 75 & 74 races, but her BM has gone up 13 points because of it. With the right run she has some claim.

Desert Marshal – Assessed $15.00.

Has won 6 from 49, all between 950 & 1200. He has had 4 goes over this distance for two 2nds & one 3rd, so is a chance of getting the trip but would need a cushy run either in front or leaders back to have a hope of beating all of them.

Mysticism – Assessed $15.00.

Has won 7 from 33 with 2 of them over this distance. She’ll be out the back, so will want the speed on & if they do put it on, no surprise to see her run into the placings.

Free Billy – Assessed $15.00.

Has won 14 from 68, the most of any in the field, with 5 of them being at this distance. Even though he has the lowest BM figure in the race, he’s not without a hope, but will need them to run along as he’ll be at the rear.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Chalmers for 5 units

 BACK (WIN) – Oh Why for 1.5 units

4.20 pm Race 7 – 1530m – Murwillumbah Gold Cup

Main early speed looks to be Cosmos Seven, Bodega Negra & Shauquin, with Prima Stella & Scoutabout handy from low draws. Nothingforthepress, O’Driscoll & Boncosta next, with Powerline, Zamex, Ready For Danger & Peak Hill back half of field.

Powerline & Ready For Danger are the top 2 in the market & both get back types which isn’t ideal around this circuit, but it does look like it’ll be run at a fairly solid clip. Powerline is yet to race beyond 1400, but his last start said he should have no problem with it the 1530m.

The only concern with him is if he gets buried away on rail from inside draw & doesn’t get clear air, but gate should also enable him to race a pair or 2 closer & be in front of 2nd fave in run.

Ready For Danger shouldn’t have any traffic problems, being that he’ll be back off rail in run & not run into traffic when rider asks him to go. Distance is short of his best, but being 2nd up he may be fresh enough to handle it.

Speed and Tactics

Murwillumbah is a fairly tight track that is approx 1620m in circumference, with a home straight of approx 300m. The Cup start is out of a chute left of winning post, from there they have a straight run of approx 300m before they hit the 1st turn, it takes them into the back straight which is approx 350m long.

Then they hit 2nd turn into a short side straight that brings them to the home turn with a 300m run to the post. It does suit on pacers, but if they overdo it, off pacers come into play.

Race Assessment

In rated price order.

Powerline – Assessed $4.20.

1 of 2 M.Dunn horses & he too will be 2nd half of the field to well back in run. He has an impressive win at this T&D in Oct 2017. He’ll be getting home, is looking for further, but best chance of the 2 Dunn horses.

Ready for Danger – Assessed $6.00.

1 of 2 M.Dunn horses & he too will be 2nd half of the field to well back in run. He has an impressive win at this T&D in Oct 2017. He’ll be getting home, is looking for further, but best chance of the 2 Dunn horses.

Shauquin – Assessed $8.00.

Has drawn the outside gate, will no doubt press forward, but may have to spend a bit of gas to cross them. If he does cross easily enough & left to dictate, has a good hope.

Bodega Negra – Assessed $10.00.

Is a 9yo racing in very good form winning 2 of last 3 runs & 1 of them was the Sth Grafton Cup where he bolted in, but it was on Heavy. He does go better on affected, but does look to get a good run on pace & is a hope at double figures.

Nothingforthepress – Assessed $11.00.

He comes out of the Powerline race at last start, was only btn 0.1L, but winners run was superior. He gets his chance as he should settle midfield to touch closer, but will need better luck than the fave in run to turn tables.

Zamex – Assessed $15.00.

He’s the other M.Dunn trained horse in the race. He ran 7th to Powerline at his last start, running on just ok from the rear, will be back near last again & will need a bit of luck to turn tables on that horse.

Boncosta – Assessed $15.00.

He too comes out of the Powerline race, he had a nice run in transit, but did race in restricted room for portion of the straight, & will appreciate extra trip, but has a sticky gate to contend with, so may not get into good spot in run, if he does, has a hope.

O’Driscoll – Assessed $26.00.

Comes into this off a handy 4th btn 2.2L over 1550 at Canterbury, where he had good run box seating to turn. His 2 prior runs he finished unplaced both times behind Bodega Negra. Draw is a bit sticky, has a hope with right run & has won 5 x over 1500m

Prima Stella – Assessed $30.00.

Her last run was for a 3rd btn 0.28L to Poweline, she did have a lovely run throughout, but she is yet to win beyond 1400m. Would need a bit to go right for her, but she will be on pace, place hope at best.

Cosmos Seven – Assessed $34.00.

Last start winner of a BM 66 over 1605m at Ballina on a Heavy surface. Will race on pace, is a wet tracker that looks outclassed in this.

Scoutabout – Assessed $60.00.

Another that will race on to front half of midfield & another that looks outclassed.

Peak Hill. Assessed $101.00.

Similar to Spiral, he’ll be back & looks outclassed. His best hope is to finish in top 10 to pick up $1000 prizemoney.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Powerline for 2.5 units

 BACK (WIN) – Bodega Negra for 1 unit

 BACK (WIN) – Ready for Danger for 0.75 unit

4.22 pm Taree Race 7 – 2000m – Taree Gold Cup

Only Master of Arts (BM 94), Hogmanay  (BM 82) & Mongolian Wolf (BM82)  are weighted to their respective Benchmarks. They meet every other runner from 2kgs to 15kgs better off at the weights.

Had Master of Arts not been in the race, then Hogmanay & Mongolian Wolf would’ve been equal topweights & all horses down to saddlecloth #7 Cogliere would’ve been correctly handicapped to their respective BM figure, with only the horses below him coming in poorly at the weights.

Speed and Tactics

There looks a bit of speed in the race with Milseain, Pirate Ben and Scotti Be Gotti looking the main speed. Cogliere and Hogmanay should also race handy. Our Gravano if ridden similar to last start should settle not far off the leading bunch, then Mongolian Wolf, Allzin and 2 of the 3 outsiders all rearward.

Race Assessment

In rated price order.

2. Hogmanay – Assessed $3.80.

Chris Waller trained runner who comes into this a last start winner over this distance, he should settle in the 1st 4 or 5 in transit & with even luck will be right in it.

5. Our Gravan – Assessed $4.75.

Third Lees runner, he comes into this a last start winner over this distance at Coffs Harbour in a considerably weaker affair, but did lump 62.5kgs. It was also the 1st time they rode him closer to the speed, from gate 1, may do the same again here.

3. Mongolian Wolf – Assessed $6.70.

First of 3 Kris Lees 3 runners, who is coming into this off a 36 day freshen up, but did have a trial on the Gold Coast 6 days ago. He’s been out of the winners stall at his past 14 runs. If he found his old form, he’d have a good hope

1. Master of Arts – Assessed $9.50.

He has strong form overall, being a dual G3 winner, but his last win was in March 2018. He’s 3rd up here, did little in 1st 2 runs, but they were slowly run affairs. He should get a good tempo in this & if he is anywhere near his best, he’ll be hard to beat.

4. Milseain – Assessed $9.50.

Second of the Lees runners, she was placed in a NZ Oaks, but hasn’t lived up to that since coming to Aus & her form is better on affected going. She’ll lead or race right on the speed & need to be left to dictate to get her chance, but

6. Pirate Ben – Assessed $11.50.

8yo who is a winner at this T&D who was a solid 2nd 2 runs back over 1600, who will race on pace & if he gets into a nice spot early is a chance of causing an upset.

7. Cogliere – Assessed $30.00.

Has only raced over this distance once where he didn’t sem to run it out strongly & is yet to win beyond 1600m. Another that will race on the pace, but would need a bit to go right for him to trouble the more fancied runners at this distance.

10. Allzin – Assessed $30.00.

He is a T&D winner that is going into this 1st up, from wide gate expect he goes back, another that’ll need plenty go right for him to figure.

11. Straight Home. Assessed $201.00.

BM 56 horse that will be hoping for a top 10 finish to collect $2250 prizemoney

12. Scotti Be Gotti – Assessed $201.00.

BM 55 horse in the same boat as Straight Home

13. Loving Home. Assessed $201.00.

BM 51 horse same as the 2 above him.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Hogmanay for 5 units

 BACK (WIN) – Our Gravano for 2 units

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