Racing tips and betting strategy for Saturday’s Group 1 Coolmore Classic are online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, racing tips & betting strategy for the Coolmore Classic at Rosehill with Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments.
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Track: Rosehill | Distance: 1500m | Condition: F&M HCP | Rail Position: True | Condition: Heavy 10 | Prizemoney: $600,000
No rain forecast for Thursday to Saturday, after bibilical downpours through the week. Assuming improvement to a Heavy 8.
A G1 for the fillies and mares won in recent years by Krone, Con Te Partiro, Dixie Blossoms, Daysee Doom, Heavens Above, Steps In Time and Appearance.
Historical Profiling (last 10 years):
- 2nd up (6), 3rd up (4). 2nd up has won the past 5 years.
- 14-day break (6), 21-day break (3), 35-day break (1)
- Settled 1st-5th (5), Settled 7th-14th (4)
- 3yo (0 from 29 starters), 4yo (2 from 62), 5yo (4 from 49), 6yo (4 from 16)
- SP Under $8 (0), $8-$16 (6), $21-$26 (4)
- Barriers 1-9 (9), Barrier 14 (1)
- Weight 53-53.5kg (3), 55kg (3), 56.5-57kg (4)
- Handicap Rating 100+ (9), 90+ (1)
- Handicap Rating Rank 1-7 (10)
- Horse Number 1-8 (10)
- Career Starts 11-19 (3), 20-29 (7)
- Never raced at Rosehill (1 from 39 starters)
- Finishing Position Last Start 1st (3), 2nd (3), 3rd-4th (2), 6th-9th (2)
- Last Start Racetrack Sydney Sat (10)
- Last Start Race Class G2 (8), G3/LR (2)
This race has some pretty clear requirements from a historical profiling perspective.
- All winners the past 10 years have been 2nd or 3rd up
- 9 coming off 14-21 days since last start.
- Nothing has won under $8, with the last 7 winners all at an SP of $14+!
- Inside barriers, top half Handicap Rating, last start past 2/3 weeks at G2 level in Sydney with under 30 starts all very positive factors.
SPEED MAP RACING TIPS
Should be a solid tempo here, with Expat and Vangelic the 2 up the front. Yes Baby Yes, Cap Estel, Hinged, Shout The Bar & Mirra Vision all likely to be positive early. Polly Grey, Lighthouse, Espiona, Atishu, Krone, Wandabaa and Promise Of Success get back.
COOLMORE CLASSIC | KEY RUNNERS + RACING TIPS
1. Krone – Won this race last year, and is even better on wet tracks. Just doesn’t profile as well here 4th up with the big weight and isn’t going as well as last year with a plugging 4th last start.
3. Vangelic – Was an unlucky 4th in this race last year as a 3yo filly when could have won. Won the G2 Golden Pendant here then 3rd in the Golden Eagle. Good run first up on the bog. Would be the one to beat on a dry track. Wide gate and wet track some negative here but still profiles well.
4. Lighthouse – Doesn’t profile at all well for this 8th up off the 7 day backup, but if there’s one stable that keeps proving it can beat convention it is the Maher/Eustace camp.
5. Shout The Bar – Won the Empire Rose for us at $32 BFSP as a 4yo. Has the ability but suspect the track will be too wet for her.
8. Hinged – Was strong winning the Surround Stakes for us two weeks ago at double figure odds. Capable of repeating again here.
12. Promise Of Success – Promising mare who has been racing well this prep, with a good 2nd last start to Forbidden Love. Can’t discount.
15. Espiona – Highly talented filly having just her 5th start. Much better on a dry track, but this track could race much better than expected with no further rain. Can win.
Final track conditions and how the track is playing from a bias perspective will be critical.
TOP 5 SELECTIONS
3 – Vangelic
8 – Hinged
15 – Espiona
4 – Lighthouse
12 – Promise Of Success
COOLMORE CLASSIC | BETTING STRATEGY
BACK (WIN) — Vangelic for 1 unit
BACK (WIN) — Hinged for 1 unit
BACK (WIN) — Espiona for 1 unit
BACK (WIN) — Lighthouse for 0.5 units
Units Outlayed: 244.9
Units Returned: 276.3
Profit On Turnover: 12.8%