Monaco v Manchester City

Thursday March 16, 6:45am AEDT


Falcao is an injury doubt for Monaco. He recently took a blow on the hip and is not fully recovered. Should he be absent Valere Germain will earn a recall. Centre-back Kamil Glik is suspended.

For Manchester City, Ilkay Gundogan, Gabriel Jesus and Vincent Kompany are missing.

Match Odds

Monaco may have lost 5-3 in the first leg but it was fairly obvious to anyone watching the game that the Ligue 1 side could easily have drawn or even won.

Monaco led 3-2 at one point, missed a penalty and caused Manchester City serious problems for 70 minutes before a late defensive collapse saw them suffer an avoidable defeat.

What’s obvious is that Monaco are good enough to win, and the fact they’re the only one of these two sides that needs to win is a factor to take into account. We saw last week – albeit on a different scale – the impact that a first-leg deficit or advantage can have on the way a team approaches a game when Barcelona staged their remarkable comeback against PSG. Given that City don’t need to win it’s slightly surprising to see the Premier League outfit pinned at the same odds as Monaco.

With a home win more likely, Monaco are the selection if you’re looking for a wager in this market.


Given that these two sides served up eight goals and a missed penalty between them in the first leg it’s hardly surprising Over 2.5 Goals is the prohibitively short-priced favourite.

Monaco are the highest-scoring side across Europe’s five major leagues this season and need to score at least twice to stand a chance of going through so another open encounter packed with chances is likely.

Over 3.5 Goals is 2.08, Over 4.5 Goals is 3.35 and Over 5.5 Goals is 6.20. All three are worth considering because both teams are clearly much better at attacking than defending.

The price on Over 3.5 Goals seems excellent value given how the game is likely to unfold, with Monaco needing to attack and likely to take the sort of risks that would give Manchester City the chance to pick them apart on the break.

Draw No Bet

If, like us, you think that Monaco’s chances of winning on the night are underrated but are concerned that their leaky defence may prevent them clinching victory, Draw No Bet (or Asian Handicap) are the markets to consider.

By backing Monaco Draw No Bet (or Monaco 0 Asian handicap) you’ll get your stakes back if the game ends all-square.

The stats back up the selection: Monaco’s home record in all competitions is W20-D2-L1 this season, their sole slip-up coming at the hands of Lyon (3-1) in late December.

Since the Lyon defeat Monaco have won eight home games on the run, scoring 23 times and conceding just three times in the process.

First Half Goals 1.5

With Monaco likely to come racing out of the blocks in a manner reminiscent of Barcelona against PSG last week, we could be in for excitement and scoring chances from the start.

When the First Half Goals 1.5 market has liquidity the price on ‘Overs’ should be around evens, meaning you’ll get paid out if the first-half features two or more goals.

The chances of two or more goals in the opening 45 minutes appear good given that Monaco will play on the front foot and Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has stated his team will get knocked out unless they score.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at 2.08

BACK – Monaco Draw No Bet at 2.00

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