Monaco v Dortmund

Thursday April 20, 4:45am AEST


Team News

Leading 3-2 from the first leg in Dortmund last week, Monaco have two automatic starters missing. Right-back Djibril Sidibe sat out last week’s first leg and is still unavailable, while midfielder Fabinho is suspended. Andrea Raggi and Alamany Toure are competing for the right-back spot. Joao Moutinho will replace Fabinho in midfield.

For Dortmund, defender Marc Batra is out after being injured in the bomb attack that saw the first leg postponed last week. Marco Reus is fit again and likely to start, according to the French media.


Match Odds

It’s always risky backing a side to win when they don’t actually need to win but it’s nonetheless bizarre to find Monaco massive underdogs to win at home on Wednesday night.

The Ligue 1 outfit are 2.98, with Dortmund 2.34 – meaning Monaco are given a 34% chance of winning on the night while visitors Dortmund are rated a 43% chance.

This makes little sense considering Monaco triumphed 3-2 in the first leg in Dortmund last week, and also when you look at the two sides’ progress over the season. Monaco are top of Ligue 1 with 77pts from 32 games (2.41pts per game), which is at least the equivalent of if not better than Dortmund’s tally of 53pts from 29 games (1.73pts per game) in the Bundesliga.

Dortmund may have been traumatised by the bomb that caused the postponement of the first leg last week but even accounting for the fact that they may be able to better focus on footballing matters this week it’s astonishing to see the market underrates Monaco once more, just as they did last week (we’re on Monaco to qualify at 2.34, which is now down to 1.33), and also ahead of the Principality club’s last-16 clash against Manchester City.

Back Monaco to win or use the big odds on the hosts to make a Draw No Bet selection (see below).


Under/Over 2.5 Goals

We successfully backed Over 3.5 Goals for the first leg last Wednesday and are happy to make the same selection this week.

The Under/Over 2.5 Goals line is set too low to be of interest, which is hardly surprising considering the high-scoring nature of games involving these two sides all season. Monaco’s 11 games in this competition have averaged 2.91 goals while Dortmund’s nine have averaged 4.44 goals.

With Dortmund needing to score twice to stand any chance of going through, Monaco boasting one of Europe’s most prolific attacks and both teams being defensively suspect, the 1.99 price on the game featuring Over 3.5 Goals is well worth taking.


Draw No Bet

The massive odds on a Monaco win open up opportunities to back the hosts in the Draw No Bet or Asian Handicap markets.

Leading 3-2 from the first leg, Monaco would go through with a draw so they’re a risky bet to actually win on the night. For that reason we prefer the safety net of backing Monaco in the Draw No Bet market as you’ll get your stakes back with this selection if the game finishes all-square.

Monaco 0 on the Asian handicap is exactly the same bet as Monaco Draw No Bet so check both markets before making your selection. Normally the two bets are available at exactly the same price although you sometimes pick up a discrepancy.


Betting Strategy

BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at 1.99

BACK – Monaco Draw No Bet at 2.26


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