Juventus v Monaco

Wednesday May 10, 4:45am AEST


Introduction

Leading 2-0 from the first leg, Juventus ought to be able to field their strongest side. Monaco are waiting to hear whether left-back Benjamin Mendy and central midfielder Tiemoue Bakayoko will be fit. In all other positions the visitors should be at full strength.


Match Odds

As you’d expect following their 2-0 first-leg win at Stade Louis II last weekend Juventus are clear favourites to win on the night this week as well.

It’s always risky backing a team to win when they don’t actually need to win, however, so there’s little appeal in supporting the Serie A champions.

That said, Monaco are hardly an attractive bet, either. They were outfoxed by Juventus last week, and their away record leaves plenty to be desired: they lost at Manchester City (5-3) in the last 16, and it must be remembered that their 3-2 win at Borussia Dortmund in the quarter-finals came against a side still in shock following the bomb attack on their bus that had delayed the game 24 hours earlier.

Juventus will be happy simply to close out the tie, so The Draw at big odds is more appealing than the home win.


Under/Over 2.5 goals

Last week’s match was billed in some quarters as a battle between Europe’s finest attack and the continent’s most obdurate defence – and it was obvious who came out on top.

Juventus kept their ninth clean sheet in 11 Champions League matches this season with their 2-0 victory, and the solidity and experience of the Serie A champions was obvious for all to see.

Juve will look to their tremendous back line to see them through the second leg as well. With a two-goal advantage there’s no need for the hosts to come out and over-expose themselves; instead they’re more likely to try to sap Monaco’s confidence by avoiding any early mistakes or conceding an early goal.

With Juventus in the driving seat and set to control the pace and tempo of the game, Unders is an appealing bet, especially as it’s the underdog of two in the market. The shorter odds on Overs reflects the fact that it’s a do-or-die occasion for Monaco, whose need to take risks to try to make the final should see the game open up at some point.

If there’s one team that can ensure the game stays low-scoring despite Monaco’s best intentions, however, it’s Juventus, so Unders is the selection.


Juventus Win to Nil

On the one hand, you can argue that it’s crazy to back ‘Yes’ in the Juventus Win to Nil market given that Monaco have scored in 12 of their 14 Champions League games this season.

On the other, the selection makes perfect sense given that Juventus shut out Monaco in the first leg last week, kept clean sheets in both legs of their 3-0 aggregate quarter-final win over Barcelona and have kept clean sheets in nine of 11 Champions League fixtures this season.

The home defence is bound to come under pressure as Monaco look to get back into the tie, and Monaco strikers Radamel Falcao and Kylian Mbappe are clearly dangerous as their record of five goals each in this season’s competition (scored at a rate of a goal every 102 minutes) underlines.

But the big odds on Juventus keeping a clean sheet equate to a 36% chance. Those odds look a touch too big considering how many clean sheets the Serie A champions have kept this season.


Betting Strategy

 BACK – The Draw at 4.10

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.08


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