Dortmund v Monaco

Wednesday April 12, 4:45am AEST


Dortmund pair Mario Gotze and Marco Reus are out. As usual Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – their seven-goal leading scorer in the competition – will lead the line. Dortmund’s teenage winger Ousmane Dembele is another player to watch.

For Monaco, right-back Djibril Sidibe and midfielder Tiemoue Bakayoko are missing. Alamany Toure is an excellent defensive understudy at right-back, while Joao Moutinho is an experienced midfield deputy.

Match Odds

Borussia Dortmund are odds-on favourites to win on Tuesday night, which seems at first glance to rate the Germans too highly. Sitting fourth in the Bundesliga, they’ve lost six of 28 fixtures, are 18pts off the top and their 4-1 defeat at leaders Bayern Munich on Saturday underlines the gap that separates them from Europe’s very best.

That’s not to say that Monaco are as good as Bayern Munich, but there are reasons to believe the Ligue 1 visitors’ chances of avoiding defeat are stronger than the market suggests. Monaco have lost just three of 31 Ligue 1 matches and are unbeaten in two league matches against PSG, a member of the European elite despite their dramatic Champions League last 16 exit at Barcelona. Monaco’s 2.39 points-per-game Ligue 1 tally this season arguably makes them a better side than Dortmund (1.79) over the course of the campaign when you take into account the relative strength of the leagues.

The factor that most strongly counts against Monaco is these two sides’ relative home and away form. Dortmund’s Champions League home record this season is W3-D1-L0, including a 4-0 win over Benfica and a 2-2 draw against Real Madrid. Monaco’s away record is W2-D1-L2, including their 5-3 defeat at Manchester City in the last round.

Those home and away figures are enough to suggest this market is best left alone.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals

It’s no surprise to find that overs is the overwhelming favourite in this market considering the attacking style of these two sides and the number of high-scoring games they’ve been involved in this season.

Monaco’s 51 matches in all competitions have produced 190 goals (average 3.73 goals per game). Dortmund’s 41 matches have produced 138 goals (average 3.37 goals per game).

Monaco’s 12 Champions League fixtures have produced 39 goals (average 3.25 goals per game). Dortmund’s eight Champions League matches have produced 35 goals (average 4.34 goals per game).

Put the fixtures of the two teams together and the overall goals-per-game tally is 3.57. The Champions League goals-per-game tally is 3.7.

Given those stats, the 2.12 available on the game having Over 3.5 Goals is well worth taking.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at 2.12

BACK – Monaco To qualify at 2.34

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