Champions League 2017/18 – Semi Final (Leg Two) Analysis

Roma v Liverpool

Thursday May 3, 4:45 AEST


Liverpool were sensational for 70 minutes at Anfield in the first leg, but the two late goals they conceded have given Roma a sliver of hope and of course they’ll point to their 3-0 win over Barca in the last round for inspiration. Di Francesco’s side have soared at the Stadio Olimpico in Europe this term, winning four of five unbeaten games as they’re yet to concede, and they haven’t had it easy after emerging from a group containing both Chelsea and Atletico Madrid. However, Liverpool are lethal on the counter-attack and are the leading scorers in this season’s competition, netting 18 times in five away matches, so will no doubt be the Italians sternest test thus far.

History is on Roma’s side over the 90 minutes though, as since 2009/10, teams that have lost a first leg of a Champions League knockout round on the road by at least two goals have done rather well in the returns, even if it’s not enough to overturn the tie’s deficit. In fact, they’re W17-D1-L9 across these games, and further eight of the defeats came against either Bayern, Barca or Real. However, it’s difficult to picture anyone keeping Liverpool’s attack at bay at present, and so at the prices Roma and both teams to score appears the standout selection.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Roma Win/Both Teams To Score at $3.78


Real Madrid v Bayern Munich

Wednesday May 2, 4:45 AEST

Real Madrid kept themselves on course for a fourth Champions League title in five years with two crucial away goals in Munich, and in fact this is an exact repeat of last season’s quarter-final between these two at the half way stage of this tie. Bayern went on to win the second leg 2-1 over the 90 minutes before crashing out in extra-time 12 months ago and given Real have emerged victorious just twice in their last five at the Bernabeu to top-five ranked teams, they have their work cut out to see this tie over the line.

Jupp Heynckes has a second chance to walk into the sunset with a treble under his arm and will have been hugely disappointed with the first leg result as his Bayern side were the better team for long periods. The experienced coach has a great record in this competition and in fact has won all five knockout games on the road since 2012/13. Real almost messed it up on home soil in the last round and hosting top-six sides in La Liga this season they’ve lost three of five winless matches, so a Bayern win looks the value in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bayern Munich Win at $3.14

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