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EXPERT RACING TIPS: CAULFIELD

CAULFIELD PREVIEW | SATURDAY THE 16TH

RAIL: +6m | TRACK: Good 4

Expecting horses on-speed to be advantaged.

Best Bets

Jackson Oldham

Best Bet

Betting Strategy

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BACK (WIN) #7 Carini for 3 units (Rated at: $1.80)

Although not being visually impressive in two runs this preparation, Carini has ratings this preparation that are well clear of anything his rivals have done in recent times. Others have peaks similar, Muramasa’s win over the carnival has a similar rating but Carini has the fitness and map advantage on him.

Jackson Oldham

Best Bet

Betting Strategy

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LAY (WIN) #10. Wolfy for 4 units (Rated at: $11.00)

Wolfy was OK through the line first-up, he ran the fastest last 100m of the race with pattern against but is likely in a similar spot despite getting the blinkers off. Since settling outside lead at his second career start, he has only settled ahead of four, out of 54 horses in the run and is a very low percentage play.

RACE 1 | SELECTIONS

7. Carini
3. Muramasa
5. Mankayan
4. Gear Up

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) #7 Carini for 3 units (Rated at: $1.80)

Although not being visually impressive in two runs this preparation, Carini has ratings this preparation that are well clear of anything his rivals have done in recent times. Others have peaks similar, Muramasa’s win over the carnival has a similar rating but Carini has the fitness and map advantage on him.

RACE 2 | SELECTIONS

2. Ambassadorial
1. Fistoffury
7. Socks Nation
6. Inexorable

Betting Strategy

No Bet.

A really tricky race for me, It’s likely all three favours will position up top three, with Ambassadorial leading, Socks Nation outside him and Fistoffury leaders back. I don’t have much splitting them, Ambassadorial just on top for me, as he does bring in the best last start rating and should be nearing peak fitness third-up.

RACE 3 | SELECTIONS

9. White Bear
5. Furious
1. Kentucky Casanova
8. The Hass

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) #10. Wolfy for 4 units (Rated at: $11.00)

Wolfy was OK through the line first-up, he ran the fastest last 100m of the race with pattern against but is likely in a similar spot despite getting the blinkers off. Since settling outside lead at his second career start, he has only settled ahead of four, out of 54 horses in the run and is a very low percentage play.

BACK (WIN) #9 White Bear for 3 units (Rated at: $2)

The race on the program that I have the strongest opinion on. White Bear is only coming through a Benalla maiden but smashed the clock and did it absorbing plenty of pressure, can only be fitter for that, rolls forward again and is winning this race as often as he’s losing it in my opinion.

RACE 4 | SELECTIONS

4. Viviane
3. Lempicka
1. Jigsaw
2. General Beau

Betting Strategy

No Bet.

A good old fashioned raffle this race. These types of races are not my strength and the big, high powered data models will be much more accurate finding value in this market than I am. I will say that first-up 61kg for Jigsaw, who didn’t come up last preparation seems a task.

RACE 5 | SELECTIONS

1. Nugget
2. Keats
6. Arran Bay
4. First Immortal

Betting Strategy

No Bet.

Nugget didn’t get a race shape to suit first-up, this is a drop back in class and he was jumping out like a jet prior to that run. First Immortal was only average around this distance range at the start of last preparation but might simply be a better horse now and his run at 1600m at MV in the middle of last preparation didn’t suggest he would be out of a race like this. No knocks Arran Bay or Keats, an even contest.

RACE 6 | SELECTIONS

2. Bold Bastille
3. Immortal Star
7. Yes Lulu
8. Comanche Miss

Betting Strategy

No Bet.

I’ve got Bold Bastille ever so slightly shorter than the market at 1.45 but there isn’t so much edge that I want to steam in and I can’t imagine the market taking a set against her on raceday either. She only has to repeat that last start figure to take a great deal of beating.

RACE 7 | SELECTIONS

11. Peace Treaty
4. Waltz On By
2. My Bella Mae
6. Lady Jones

Betting Strategy

No Bet.

There is plenty to like about Peace Treaty, she has a great racing pattern, she ran a number that wasn’t jaw dropping at the back end of last preparation but the splits and style suggested their was more to come. She cartwheeled away from them in a recent Flemington jumpout and gets in with 52kg and a very much in-form Jamie Kah. The only thing not to like is the price, I thought with the ratings, we were entitled to be taking closer to 2.6-2.7, not near even money.

RACE 8 | SELECTIONS

1. Mr Brightside
12. Pride Of Jenni
2. Cascadian
9. Ayrton

Betting Strategy

No Bet.

Much cold water has been poured on this race and I’ll be the first to jump up and down being negative about something but I am looking forward to this contest. It’s far from a one act affair if the track is playing on-speed and inside lanes strongly advantaged. Mr Brightside with the edge for me but I’d need even money to play and we probably get that on raceday.

RACE 9 | SELECTIONS

7. Dashing Suchess
1. Sir Atlas
3. Actaeon
13. Sailors Book

Not a betting race for me but a cracking race. Dashing Duchess won well first-up at Ballarat with more to come, Damian Lane sat in the sheds for a couple of hours without a ride on a Sunday for this girl and he sticks here. Sir Atlas won impressively last start at Terang, very talented but the map has the potenital to be tricky.

Jucconi was well backed last start and didn’t have much luck but a similar scenario is likely to present. A horse I have a stack of time for is Actaeon, I think he could be near the best horse in this race, he won two on the bounce, both in impressive fashion before nothing went right at Colac, I wish he didn’t draw the carpark, Jordy Childs will need to have his myki in his back pocket from gate 17.

Betting Strategy

No Bet.

RACE 10 | SELECTIONS

2. Bank Maur
9. Rey Magnerio
3. Brudenell
11. Maharba

Betting Strategy

No Bet. A cracking card but the interest stops for me after race nine now with the scratching of Grand Impact. Rey Magnerio is coming off a set back.

SUMMARY

Known locally as ‘The Heath’, Caulfield Racecourse is located approximately nine kilometres from the Melbourne CBD, on the boundary of Caulfield and Caulfield East in the city’s south eastern suburbs. Together with Sandown and Mornington racecourses, Caulfield is operated by the Melbourne Racing Club (MRC). It is widely considered Melbourne’s second most prestigious racecourse behind Flemington, hosting around 25 meetings each season including some of the country’s most famous and historic races, headlined by the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. For the best Caulfield tips, previews and all the form, head to the Betfair Hub.

FAST FACTS

Six internationally-trained horses have won the Caulfield Cup. They are: Taufan’s Melody (1998) for British trainer Lady Herries; All the Good (2008) and Best Solution (2018) for Godolphin’s Dubai trainer Saeed bin Suroor; Dunaden (2012) for French trainer Mikel Delzangles; Admire Rakti (2014) for Japanese trainer Tomoyuki Umeda; and Mer De Glace (2019) for Japanese trainer Hisashi Shimizu.

KEY EVENTS

Together with the Melbourne Cup, Cox Plate and Golden Slipper, the Caulfield Cup makes up the four majors of Australian racing. It is the world’s richest turf handicap over 2400m and dates back to 1879. It was won in 2021 by Incentivise and in 2020 by Verry Elleegant, the two horses which then ran the quinella in the 2021 Melbourne Cup. In autumn Caulfield also hosts Victoria’s premier contest for juveniles, the Blue Diamond Stakes. A total of 12 Group 1 races are staged annually at Caulfield, with the prestigious Caulfield Guineas and the equivalent for fillies (the Thousand Guineas) both held the week before the Caulfield Cup. From three-year-old contests to handicap races for experienced stayers, Betfair’s leading team of tipsters bring you their Caulfield best bets for each and every meeting at The Heath.

TRACK PROFILE

The track is triangular-shaped, with a total circumference measuring of 2,080m and a home straight of 367m. Some horses struggle to handle the tight turns and contours of the track, with interference also common particularly in the Caulfield Cup which features 18 runners.

In 1995/96, the track was widened to 30m around the entire circumference and the straight was lengthened by 43m. The current surface has been cambered from the outside running rail, with the crown of the track at the outside running rail. The banking on the final turn into the home straight is four per cent, while the other turns have an equivalent banking of two per cent. Given the quirks of the track it pays to follow our tipsters when they bring you their Caulfield best bets free of charge on the Betfair Hub.

HISTORY

Originally the Victorian Amateur Turf Club (VATC) raced at Ballarat, but in 1876 the club moved to Caulfield for its Melbourne base having owned the land since 1859. Feature races were soon held at Caulfield, with the Caulfield Cup making its debut in 1879. The inaugural event was won by Newminster, whose name adorns one of the barns at Racing Victoria’s quarantine facilities in Werribee. During World War II, Caulfield was utilised as an army barracks so racing was moved to Flemington for the duration of the conflict.

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