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FEATURE PREVIEW: CAULFIELD GUINEAS

CAULFIELD GUINEAS PREVIEW

Track: Caulfield | Distance: 1600m | Race Type: Group 1 3YO Set Weights | Rail Position: True | Current Track Conditions: Good 4 |
Prediction Track Conditions: Soft 5 | Prizemoney: $3,000,000

Thunderstorms predicted for Thursday, with some potential small showers on Friday & Saturday. Should create a fair track giving every horse its chance.

The Caulfield Guineas has a high-quality honour roll in recent years including All Too Hard, Press Statement, The Autumn Sun, Ole Kirk and Anamoe.

CAULFIELD GUINEAS HISTORY (LAST 12 YEARS)

  • 3rd up (2), 4th up (9), 5th up (1)
  • 3rd up horses were The Autumn Sun off a 1500m first up run and then winning the 1400m Golden Rose after winning a 1600m G1 as a 2yo in the winter, and Anamoe off a Golden Rose nose defeat.
  • 14-day break (10), 21-day break (2)
  • Colts (11), Geldings (1)
  • Black Type Winner or G1 placed as a 2yo (8)
  • SP $7.50 or under (10), $12 (1), $101 (1)
  • Lead Up – Golden Rose (4), Guineas Prelude (3), Bill Stutt (1), Stan Fox (3), George Main (1)
  • Last Start Performance 1st (5), 2nd (2), 3rd (1), 4th (3), 5th (1)
  • Career Starts 4-9 (12)
  • Barriers 1-8 (10), Barriers 13-14 (2)
  • Had previously run over 1500m+ (8)

CAULFIELD GUINEAS SPEED MAP

Quick speed expected here with Limburg, Rock Empire, Griff, Verdad, and Veight all pushing forward.

Steparty, The Longest Yard & Southport Tycoon forward of midfield.

King Colorado, Copacabana & Militarize back of midfield.

Scentify, Little Brose, Wolfy & Scheelite out the back.

FINAL FIELD – KEY RUNNERS

1. Militarize – Only had 7 starts and has already won 3 G1 races. Ran excellent closing sectionals last start winning the Golden Rose. Joao Moreira sticks and the horse ticks every box. Is the one to beat.

3. King Colorado – Am biased given myself and 47 Winning Edge Investments members own this colt. Won the $1M G1 JJ Atkins last prep as a 2yo. Had no luck first up in the Winx Stakes. Was disappointing on face value when 7th beaten 2.1L in the Golden Rose as second favourite but was kept fresh, the race was stop start and the track very hard. Has been set for this race, gets some give in the track, drawn well in the middle and gets G1 M Dee on board. Certainly has the ability to win.

4. Steparty – Has had 5 starts for 5 wins, including last start in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude when racing wide throughout and flying home to score. Is the key danger.

7. Scheelite – Flew home from well back for 4th beaten 0.5L in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Will get well back from the wide gate but has M Zahra aboard.

8. Scentify – Ran excellent closing sectionals in first two runs this prep, then 3rd beaten a neck in the Caulfield Guineas prelude. Can figure.

9. Southport Tycoon – In first prep but won first two starts with excellent closing sectionals, then 2nd beaten a nose in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude.

10. Wolfy – Still in first prep but last 3 starts has run the quickest last 600m of the entire day of all runners. Is flying.

CAULFIELD GUINEAS TIPS

1 – Militarize
3 – King Colorado
4 – Steparty
8 – Scentify
7 – Scheelite

BETTING STRATEGY

Believe the winner comes from Militarize, King Colorado, Steparty or Scentify.
Risking Steparty given the short odds.

BACK 1 – Militarize 2.0w

BACK 3 – King Colorado 1.0w

BACK 8 – Scentify 0.5w

DEAN EVANS’ RESULTS

Units Outlayed: 325.2
Units Returned: 336.6
Profit On Turnover: 3.5%

BIG WINNERS (Betfair SP)

2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar ($32.60)
2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment ($28.26)
2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier ($23.00)
2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run ($19.50)
2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar ($18.95)
2021 Autumn Stakes: Poland ($18.00)
2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone ($15.00)

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