Canelo vs Plant: Fight Predictions

How would you bet Canelo vs Plant on the Betfair Exchange?

CANELO VS PLANT

Live from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, the biggest draw in the sport today; Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, squares off against a young, surging champion in Caleb Plant. A rivalry in the making already, the stakes are raised even further as the winner of this contest will walk out of the arena as the unified super middleweight champion of the world.

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SAUL “CANELO” ALVAREZ: PROFILE

The name “Canelo” has become a household one in recent years and his emphatic performance against previously unbeaten Billy Joe Saunders certainly bolstered that ever-growing fan base. It took only 8 rounds for Alvarez to break the orbital bone of Saunders and force a stoppage in between rounds. Unfortunately for Saunders, the fight wasn’t exactly close leading up to the stoppage, either.

With Alvarez’s sweep of promotional company Matchbook Boxing’s now over with (Danny Jacobs, Rocky Fielding, Callum Smith, and, as of five months ago, Saunders all fell prey to Alvarez), the Mexican superstar sets his sights on the unification of the super middleweight division. Despite his 5’8” frame, he has shown the ability to not only out finesse, but flat out hurt, drop, and stop opponents with significant size advantages over him. Sergey Kovalev and Callum Smith, both of whom dwarfed Alvarez, can speak to the power and diverse, crippling offense that “Canelo” has developed.

Since his lone professional defeat at the hands of Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013, Alvarez has soared through the boxing world, and multiple divisions, seizing titles and fans along the way. With the unification on the line of a division that most agree is too big for most men Saul Alvarez’s size to be competing in, he stands at the precipice of cementing himself as one of the all time best in not only in Mexican boxing, but the sport as a whole.

With technical refinements that have been worked at diligently over the last several years alongside longtime coach Eddy Reynoso, the red haired killer whose nickname can be translated to “Cinnamon” has shown a decreasing number of vulnerabilities in recent outings. His offense has gotten cleaner, his game planning has become superb, but the most impressive of all developments in Alvarez’s game has been his defensive capabilities.

FIGHTING STYLE

Always a fan of counter punching, it took many years for “Canelo” to develop the superior timing and accuracy of his offense/counter-offense. With a style that can at times be slightly representative of “aggressive counter-punchers” of old like Salvador Sanchez and Juan Manuel Marquez, he has become a crippling enigma for fighters in the division to solve.

Due to his highly developed footwork and excellent punch placement, taller opponents get walked down, cut off, and broken down. Smaller opponents get picked apart and wilt under the onslaught. In this case, we see Alvarez facing down a roughly 5 inch height disadvantage, and a roughly 3 inch reach disadvantage.

However, I do not expect that to be a significant hindrance for Alvarez, who has consistently shown the ability to adapt to, and exploit, the weaknesses of his opponents.

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CALEB PLANT: PROFILE

So, what are Caleb Plant’s weaknesses? Well first, let’s get into his strengths and how he became such a force in the division to begin with.

Although unheralded and rather unassuming early in his career, Plant was an alternate for the 2012 USA Olympic boxing team and, upon turning professional, faced little struggles throughout his career inside the ring. Despite personal tragedy striking his life outside the ring, Plant continued to showcase exceptional and rapidly improving technical boxing ability reminiscence of none other than Saul Alvarez.

FIGHTING STYLE

A smooth orthodox boxer with diverse attacks from both hands, speed, and enough power to keep his opponents humble, Plant is a bit more of a pot-shotter than Alvarez is but will nonetheless exchange with opponents with needed.

Having won the IBF title off José Uzcátegui, Plant went on to defend the strap three more times before finding himself in a fortunate, and very high paying, match up with the biggest name in the sport today.

All that said, Caleb Plant, despite his physical advantages, has yet to experience the level of competition that Saul Alvarez will bring to the table in this contest. “Canelo” is a diverse offensive threat who can, and will, batter his opponents anywhere and everywhere he can to wear them out and ensure a victory.

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THE VERDICT

While I don’t question Plant’s heart, I do question his ability to survive 12 rounds with a motivated Alvarez who seems to be on a war path right now in his quest for super middleweight unification. There is no questioning that Plant is a skilled, refined boxer in his own right but there is a time and a place for fights like this, and Plant’s time and place is not November 6th.

BETTING STRATEGY

BACK (WIN) — Saul Alvarez by KO/TKO or DQ