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BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR

BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR

ROUND 1 | PREDICTED VOTES

CARL V RICH

PATRICK CRIPPS

3

HARRY MCKAY

1.5

NOAH BALTA

1.5

 

The Blues hold on for another tight victory, with Patrick Cripps leading the way with a game high- 31 disposals, 21 contested possessions, getting involved on both sides of the ball with 8 intercept possessions and 7 score involvements.

Harry McKay booted 3 goals- the most of any Blue- from 13 disposals, taking 6 marks and laying 7 tackles in a well-rounded performance.

Noah Balta was the pick of the Richmond players with 23 disposals, 9 marks, leading all players for meters gained with 613 and kicking 3 goals.

 

COLL V SYD

ISAAC HEENEY

2.5

CHAD WARNER

2.5

ERROL GULDEN

1

 

Isaac Heeney has dominated through the midfield in the first two matches, with 29 disposals, team high- 13 contested possessions, 10 score involvements and 2 goals.

Chad Warner was eye-catching in Nike TNs, kicking 3 goals, having a team high- 7 clearances and winning 27 disposals in a close to best-on-ground performance.

Errol Gulden was the Swans most prolific ball winner with 30 disposals, 2 goal assists, taking 8 marks and making a game high- 650 meters gained.

 

ESS V HAW

ARCHIE PERKINS

2

JAKE STRINGER

2

ZACH MERRETT

1

ANDREW MCGRATH

1

 

Archie Perkins had a coming-of-age game with career high numbers of 12 tackles, 8 clearances, 9 score involvements as well as 24 disposals and 2 goals.

Jake Stringer turned his strong preseason form into a strong Round 1 with 4 goals from 11 disposals.

Andrew McGrath was prolific throughout the match with a game high- 33 disposals and 619 meters gained.

Zach Merrett dominated through the midfield with 31 disposals, 8 marks and 6 clearances.

 

GWS V NM

TOM GREEN

3

JESSE HOGAN

2

LACHIE WHITFIELD

1

 

Tom Green’s Brownlow stocks are improving at a rate of knots, with the Giants off to a flying start and Green dominating as their number 1 midfielder. Green had a game high- 37 disposals, 16 contested and 14 score involvements as well as a goal.

Jesse Hogan cashed in on the Kangaroos poor defence with 6 goals and 3 goal assists from 18 disposals.

Lachie Whitfield picked up 29 disposals, 10 score involvements and took 8 marks in a commanding display.

 

GEEL V STK

PATRICK DANGERFIELD

3

MAX HOLMES

1

JEREMY CAMERON

1

TOM STEWART

1

 

Even at age 33, Patrick Dangerfield is still the Cats number 1 midfielder! The 2016 Brownlow Medallist led all Geelong players for disposals (25), clearances (8), contested possessions (12) and inside 50s (9) as well as kicking a goal.

Young prodigy Max Holmes was important to the Cats win with 23 disposals, 10 marks and a game high- 686 meters gained.

Jeremy Cameron started the season strongly, using his running power to accumulate 21 disposals, take 7 marks and kick 2 goals, 3 behinds including a brilliant individual goal from the boundary that would have captured the umpire’s attention.

5x All Australian Tom Stewart was a rock down back with 22 disposals at 86% efficiency and picking up 8 intercept possessions.

 

GCS V ADE

MATT ROWELL

2

TOUK MILLER

2

NOAH ANDERSON

2

 

It’s going to be tough to split the Gold Coast main three midfielders on Brownlow night.

Matt Rowell followed on from his dominant opening round performance, with 29 disposals, 10 tackles, 9 clearances, game high- 20 contested possessions and a goal.

Skipper-Touk Miller looked in fine form with 29 disposals, 19 contested and a game high- 10 clearances.

Noah Anderson had the equal most disposals with 35 with a game high- 8 inside 50s, 781 meters gained and booted a goal.

 

MEL V WB

MAX GAWN

3

CHRISTIAN PETRACCA

1.5

CLAYTON OLIVER

1.5

 

It was back to the Melbourne of old, with their A-Grade midfield trio all dominating and likely to be in the votes.

Skipper Max Gawn had reigning All-Australian- Tim English’s number, with a strong stat line that read 26 disposals, 35 hitouts, 8 clearances and 9 marks in a best on ground display.

Christian Petracca was damaging in the front half with his 29 disposals, being involved in 13 scores which included 3 direct goal assists and a goal of his own.

Clayton Oliver was at his prolific best, leading all players with 35 disposals (with an impressive 21 kicks), 7 inside 50s and 6 clearances through the midfield..

 

PORT V WCE

CONNOR ROZEE

3

ZAK BUTTERS

2

CHARLIE DIXON

1

 

Connor Rozee started his captaincy with a bang, winning by 50 points and being the best player on the ground with 27 disposals, 6 inside 50s, 6 clearances, 14 score involvements- all team highs- as well as 2 goals!

Breakout star- Zak Butters picked up where he left off last season with 27 disposals, 8 marks, 11 score involvements and a goal. Rozee and Butters were the two clear best ons.

Spearhead Charlie Dixon impressed up front with a team high- 3 goals in the Powers thrashing over West Coast.

 

FRE V BL

CALEB SERONG

3

LUKE JACKSON

1

LUKE RYAN

1

ANDREW BRAYSHAW

1

 

Caleb Serong had the individual performance of the round with 46 disposals, 21 contested possessions and 10 clearances in the Dockers upset over last season’s Grand Finalist Brisbane. If Fremantle can continue winning and are a top-8 chance, Serong will be taking majority of the Brownlow votes this season.

Luke Jackson impressed with his ruck-forward craft, involved through the middle with 18 disposals and 30 hitouts as well as contributing with 2 goals.

Luke Ryan was the distributor down back, making a game high- 817 meters gained from his 33 disposals and taking 10 marks.

Andrew Brayshaw was Serong’s support act through the middle with 32 disposals, 8 marks, 6 clearances and 2 goal assists.

ROUND 0 | PREDICTED VOTES

SYD V MEL

BRODIE GRUNDY

2

ISAAC HEENEY

2

CHAD WARNER

1

JACK VINEY

1

 

Brodie Grundy’s debut in the red and white couldn’t have gone any better, coming out victorious against his old skipper- Max Gawn. Dominating around the ground, Grundy finished with 23 disposals, 9 clearances and 33 hitouts in a close to best on ground performance. Nice of Melbourne and Collingwood to pay some of his wage!

A positional move that has been on the cards for years, Isaac Heeney was unleashed as a full-time midfielder with brilliant results. The typically high-flying forward was the best midfielder for the Swans, winning a game high- 13 clearances and 18 contested possessions in greasy conditions. The move up the ground didn’t hinder his forward half impact, with 12 of his 26 disposals being score involvements including kicking a goal.

Chad Warner was quiet early, but was almost the difference in the final term- with 11 disposals and an important goal. Finished with a solid 26 disposals and game high- 12 inside 50s.

Melbourne tough nut- Jack Viney kept the Demons in the match with 30 disposals, 14 contested, 7 clearances and 2 goals.

BL V CARL

CHARLIE CURNOW

3

ADAM CERRA

1

HARRY MCKAY

1

GEORGE HEWETT

1

 

In what will be one of the best games of the season, it will be difficult to determine who gets the nod from the umpires with low disposal numbers across the board. Charlie Curnow was crucial to inspiring the Blues after their 46-point deficit to eventually winning by a point. The back-to-back Coleman Medallist booted a game high 4 goals during Carlton’s comeback.

Adam Cerra and George Hewett were impacting through the midfield, with Hewett leading all players for disposals with 27 and Cerra leading his teammates for contested possessions (14) and clearances (7).

Harry McKay was clunking them well, with 4 of his 7 marks being contested. The much maligned forward kicked 3 goals including the match winning goal, as well as leading all Blues for score involvements with 8.

 

GCS V RICH

MATT ROWELL

3

BEN KING

1

NOAH ANDERSON

1

TOUK MILLER

1

 

Matt Rowell was tough and contested from start to finish as the Suns registered their first win under Damien Harwick. The former no.1 pick led the match for disposals (33), contested possessions (26) and a herculean 20 clearances- the second player to win 20+ clearances since the stat was counted!

Ben King was effective in front of the sticks, with 5 of his 10 disposals finishing as goals.

Noah Anderson and Touk Miller was important on-the-ball and will be strong chances for the minor votes. Anderson picked up where he left off with 25 disposals, 13 contested and 8 clearances whilst Miller finished with 28 disposals (second most behind Rowell) and 8 score involvements.

 

GWS V COLL

JESSE HOGAN

2

TOM GREEN

2

CALLUM BROWN

2

 

Forward line pairing Jesse Hogan and Callum Brown stretched out the Collingwood defence, with the duo booting 9 of the Giants 18 goals.

Callum Brown had his best career game to date, kicking a game high- 5 goals. Meanwhile, Jesse Hogan kicked 4 goals and did plenty of work marking the ball up the ground- taking 7 marks and involved in 9 scores (equal second most on the ground).

Tom Green lived up to the preseason hype as a potential Brownlow front runner, winning 30 disposals, 11 contested (equal team high), 9 clearances (team high), 9 score involvements and a goal.

The orange tsunami lives on, with Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield and Stephen Conilglio all playing big games and stiff not to be included.

No fears for any Nick Daicos backers, with the preseason Brownlow favourite still going about his business as one of the best players in the league- 34 touches, 16 contested, 10 clearances and a goal, if the Pies win its another 3 votes for the young star.

2024 BROWNLOW MEDAL EARLY BETTING STRATEGIES

Nick Daicos is the short-priced favourite and for good reason, with the second-year sensation polling an incredible 28 votes at 1.4 votes per game- the most of any player last season. Hot favourites mean the odds blow out for some serious Brownlow contenders- with proven vote getters such as Marcus Bontempelli (12.00), Christian Petracca (15.00) and Patrick Cripps (21.00), all paying much more than they were prior to the Brownlow Medal last season.

It’s been well documented that the Brownlow Medal is a midfielder’s award, but the umpires don’t just look at the ability to rack up disposals. 11 of the last 12 Brownlow Medallist finished the season in the top-10 for average contested possessions and clearances! Backing a player that fits this bill would be wise decision.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Marcus Bontempelli Brownlow Medal at $12.00

Marcus Bontempelli fits this bill as the prototype modern midfielder- ranking 5th for clearances, 4th for contested possessions and kicking 19 goals last season. The two-time Runner-Up in the Brownlow is paying a huge price of 12.00 when you consider he was paying $3-$4 prior to last year’s count!

BACK: Christian Petracca Brownlow Medal at $15.00

Eight of the last nine winners had polled 20+ votes before their victory- proving a strong history is crucial to winning the Brownlow count. Melbourne bull- Christian Petracca is an umpire’s favourite, finishing in the top-10 and polling 20+ votes in all of the last 4 seasons- the only current player to achieve this feat!

Petracca is as consistent as any player in the AFL- averaging 28 disposals and over a goal a game in the last three years. You can have faith that Petracca will be there or thereabouts as a reliable top tier player once again.

BACK-TO-LAY: Chad Warner Brownlow Medal.

Chad Warner is a great pick to back-to-lay- paying a huge 51.00 this preseason. Despite having a slightly poorer 2023 than his breakout 2022 campaign, the Chad received a boost in Brownlow votes- going from 12 to 16- potentially off the back of the media attention received during last off season.

With opposition attention likely going to All-Australian- Errol Gulden and elite ruckman- Brodie Grundy tapping down in the centre, Warner could easily find himself in the top-10 of the Brownlow meaning his odds will shorten significantly from the current rough price.

LAY: Lachie Neale Brownlow Medal

Lachie Neale has been a popular player in the eyes of the umps since his move to the Lions- placing on the podium in four of the last five seasons and picking up two Brownlow Medals! However, no player has won back-to-back Brownlow Medals since Robert Harvey in 1998.

Based on the statistics, last seasons polling was an anomaly for Neale, receiving votes in three matches when he recorded 23 or less disposals- a feat he only achieved once in his previous 200 matches (and that match included 22 disposals and 4 goals). Seems as if the umpires were trying to make up for his robbed 2022 Brownlow! The umpires may overcompensate this season, seeing Neale receive less votes than he deserves.

BETFAIR’S BROWNLOW MEDAL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The Brownlow Medal is the AFL’s most prestigious individual prize. The medal, known formally as the Charles Brownlow Trophy, was first presented in 1924, in honour of the former Geelong player and club and league administrator. The Brownlow medallist is recognised as the League’s fairest and best player, as judged by the umpires.

In recent years, the Brownlow Medal count has attracted significant interest as a major event on footy’s social calendar, while also continuing to draw massive patronage from bettors. With wagering interest in the Brownlow skyrocketing, punters are increasingly looking for accurate and updated information and insights to help shape their Brownlow tipping strategies.

Betfair’s unique Brownlow Medal predictor provides expert analysis for each of the 207 AFL home-and-away matches played during the 2024 season including a list of players it predicts will likely have earned the umpires’ votes.

Under the current Brownlow Medal voting system, the three field umpires confer after each game and award six votes to the three players considered the fairest and best, on a 3-2-1 basis. However, under the innovative system that underpins Betfair’s AFL Brownlow predictor, more than three players per match can be identified as predicted vote-winners, ‘earning’ a minimum of 0.5 votes and a maximum of 3 from a six-tier voting scale. Betfair’s data scientists and betting analysts believe this broader vote allocation system better captures more players’ valuable or outstanding performances while simultaneously lessening the impact of the narrow 3-2-1 system than can, by its nature, ignore impactful players who might not necessarily have caught the umpires’ attention, particularly in games dominated by one or two individuals.

After each round, a leaderboard showing how many votes Betfair’s Brownlow predictor tips players to receive is updated, with individual Brownlow Medal market odds on the Betfair Exchange adjusted accordingly. This ‘live’ feature enables punters to stay updated with predicted player movement up and down the leaderboard, providing them with ample opportunity to adjust their Brownlow wagering strategies throughout the course of the AFL season.

Under contemporary Brownlow rules, multiple winners are declared when two or more players finish with the same number of votes. In 2003, for example, Adelaide’s Mark Ricciuto, Collingwood’s Nathan Buckley and Sydney’s Adam Goodes each polled 22 votes and were declared Brownlow medallists. This element of the award broadens punters’ options and allows for more intricate wagering strategies, particularly when using Betfair’s AFL Brownlow predictor as a guide. It’s also worth noting that although players who have been suspended for on-field indiscretions during a season can still receive votes for their performances, they are ineligible to win that year’s Brownlow Medal.

Importantly, as part of Betfair’s approach of putting bettors first by giving them multiple options to capitalise on their investments, punters can choose to back or lay any player as part of their Brownlow wagering considerations.

As Australia’s largest betting exchange, Betfair continues to broaden its wagering options and expand the cutting-edge information, expert analysis and data it offers punters who are keen to extract maximum value when investing. To take advantage of tools including the innovative Brownlow Medal predictor, sign up to Betfair today and start realising the benefits.

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