On Sunday at approximately 2pm (EST) Gennady Golovkin (GGG) and Saul Alvarez (Canelo) step back in to the ring together. GGG will be defending his middleweight championship belts against a familiar foe.

This match-up has it all. Drugs, controversy and two of the most talented fighters on the planet.


THE MATCHUP

As you know, this fight has already happened. 12 months ago.

GGG pressed the action and landed more punches in 10 of the 12 rounds. Yet, Adalaide Byrd scored the fight 118-110 in favour of Canelo and the match was declared a draw.

After confirming a rematch, Canelo failed two drug tests in late February. Resulting in a six-month ban.

All this drama has meant the anticipation, and pay per view buys, have gone through the roof. We can’t wait for Sunday. There is real animosity between the two best middleweights in the world.

If you’re not captured by it already, watch HBO’s 24/7:


The hype video reminds punters how the first fight went. GGG started slow, dominated the middle rounds and Canelo landed big shots late. GGG pressed forward, Canelo counter punched.

According to Canelo’s two trainers, we can expect the exact same strategies in the rematch.

Eddy Reynoso: “He’s (Canelo’s) not some rudimentary fighter like Golovkin who just goes up and throws rocks.”

Chepo Reynoso: “Golovkin is a donkey who doesn’t think. He doesn’t have a thought in his head. He’s a man who comes forward throwing the same punches.”


The Betting

The betting markets have been firm since the market opened.

GGG has been popular at $1.77 and $1.76 so we can’t see his odds getting passed those prices. Canelo, therefore, has been a slight drifter from $2.48 to $2.56.

The same movement happened in the first fight, with Canelo drifting during the week. We anticipated he wouldn’t get passed $2.7 but a huge weight of money came for GGG late. We’re anticipating similar movement in this market.

GGG should start in the low $1.60’s on Sunday with Canelo pushing $2.85 on the Exchange.


Side Markets

The betting markets have been firm since the market opened.

GGG has been popular at $1.77 and $1.76 so we can’t see his odds getting passed those prices. Canelo, therefore, has been a slight drifter from $2.48 to $2.56.

The same movement happened in the first fight, with Canelo drifting during the week. We anticipated he wouldn’t get passed $2.7 but a huge weight of money came for GGG late. We’re anticipating similar movement in this market.

GGG should start in the low $1.60’s on Sunday with Canelo pushing $2.85 on the Exchange.


Betting Strategy

Despite the age difference, we’re betting up on GGG. The boxing world knows he won the first fight and he started slowly. That won’t happen this time.

We’re expecting Golovkin to get the points he deserves by pressing the action and we can’t see the $1.74 lasting on the Exchange.

We also like the fight to go 12 rounds at $1.53, which makes Golovkin by points a bet at $3.10 as well.

  BACK – GGG to win at $1.70 or bigger.

  BACK – GGG by Decision at $3.10 or bigger.


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