Boxing Analysis: Crawford vs Horn

10th June 2018

A huge weekend for Australian fight fans, with our two best combat athletes putting their belts on the line in Las Vegas. Hours before Robert Whitaker defends his UFC Middleweight belt against Yoel Romero, Jeff Horn defends his WBO Welterweight Title.

His challenger is one of the most revered boxers in the world, Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford. The American has plenty of belts of his own but this fight is for Horn’s.

THE MATCHUP

Crawford is the third best pound for pound fighter in the world at the moment, according to both RingTV and ESPN. The American has dominated the light welterweight division on his way to a 32-0 record, with 23 knockouts.

The Australian, however, is also undefeated with a professional record of 18-1-0. After shocking the world with his controversial victory over Manny Pacquiao, Horn successfully defended his WBO Welterweight Title against Gary Corcoran.

On paper, the two boxers look a class apart. The quality of Crawford’s opponents and his dominance (six of his last seven fights have been stoppage victories) can’t be compared to Horn’s. He also has a significant home ground advantage, something that arguably helped the Hornet beat Pac-Man.

That said, Crawford is stepping up seven pounds to meet Jeff Horn at his preferred welterweight. The difference in natural size is a certain advantage for Horn. As is Horn’s forward pressure.

What looked set to be a one sided matchup is becoming an interesting affair as Main Event argues in their promotional video below.

THE BETTING

The market has been one way in support of The Hornet. The Australian was matched at $9.80 before dramatically shortening to $4.70. The most has been consistent and unrelenting, further shortening from $6 to $4.70 during the final few days.

Horn’s natural size and aggression, as well as Crawford postponing the fight, has surely helped. Horn is also the champion at welterweight and the market normally favours the man that needs to be beaten. However, the global boxing public feels like the judges took care of Horn in his Pacquiao match-up and he may receive no favours on American soil.

SIDE MARKETS

The side markets are filling up with liquidity now. The big question is, will the fight last 12 rounds?

The betting doesn’t think so. It’s $1.58 for either fighter to win by stoppage, $1.70 if you only go with Crawford.

BETTING STRATEGY

At first glance, Crawford looked like ‘free money’, just as we predicted in the Mayweather McGregor showdown. However, the market drift is concerning as it can often reflect the training camps.

We’ll be looking to monitor the weigh ins. If Crawford looks healthy and confident at the increased weight, we’re happy to take the American by knockout. The $1.70 odds are value for a man that has stopped six of his last seven.

His opponents match or exceed Horn’s pedigree and there’s a reason Crawford is regarded as the third best fighter in the world right now.