BMW Championship – Half Time Analysis

Aronimink GC, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, September 6-9th


Saturday – 21 Degrees, Scattered Showers, Precipitation 70%, Humidity 69%, Wind 13-18km/h

Sunday –  19 Degrees, Rain, Precipitation 80%, Humidity 80%, Wind 16-24km/h


Weather Report

Day 1

T1 T Woods -8
T1 R McIlroy -8
3 X Schauffele -7
T4 B Horrschel -6
T4 P Uihlein -6
T4 J Thomas -6
T4 A Noren -6

Day 2

1 X Schauffele -13
2 J Rose -11
T3 K Bradley -10
T3 A Noren -10
T3 R Fowler -10
T3 H Matsuyama -10
T7 R McIlroy, J Thomas, J Day, B Horschel, C Howell -9

Course Details and Round by Round Summary

Round 1 Summary

It’s all about Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy in round 1, both firing brilliant 8 under par rounds. It’s great for golf to see Tiger Woods on top of the leaderboard and punters need to be a little cautious if your betting against Tiger when he leads golf tournaments, particularly after 36 holes and 54 holes. His history has shown that time and time again he goes onto win. Rory and Tiger have both been mentioned in recent articles that they are in form, and now that the Fed Ex Cup is down to its final two events, these high-profile players both show their “teeth”. I will be interested to see how Tiger drives the ball if he is in contention on the weekend, as I believe it’s his weakest link at present.

The out of form Alex Noren and Jon Rahm both had solid rounds of 6 under par and 4 under par respectively, but I am happy to oppose they will contend the tournament based on his recent form. Defending champion Marc Leishman who has also be out of form, was very disappointing in round 1, firing a 4 over par round.

Note – Tiger Woods hit 16-18 greens in regulation and holed 15 out of 15 putts inside 10 feet. These are very impressive stats on the lush Aronimink layout.

Round 2 Summary

On day 2, Tiger couldn’t seem to get the putts to drop, his driving and greens in regulation was still strong, and is a good sign heading into the weekend, but he just needs to get the putter firing again.

Xander Schauffele sprung to the top of the leaderboard with a 64 to follow his 63 on day 1. Xander has been out of form and he does have a wall of players chasing, which include Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Justin Thomas and Tony Finau.

Overnight rain softened the course and slowed the greens, and with more rain predicted on weekend, we could see very little run on the fairways and slower running greens than normal.

Justin Rose is again playing very well this week and I think he is favorite for the tournament despite being two shots behind heading into the weekend.


In-play betting for Round 3 & Round 4

Below is a list of the hole by hole scoring averages at Aronimink GC.

Here is a trading suggestion –

Option 1. The 16th hole is playing very easy this year and is great for placing a “back” bet on a player you fancy (providing they are in a good position on the fairway) and then “lay” bet once the hole is completed. Best to do this trade when the market is compressed on the “back” and “lay” side.

Option 2. The 8th through to the 10th hole is clearly the most difficult stretch of the golf course and could be a good strategy “laying” a player on the 8th tee and re-backing that player after the 10th hole has been completed. These 3 holes are all averaging over par.

 


Betting Strategy

A lot of the pre-tournament bets are going well at this stage, lets see if we can add a little more to the “kitty” on the weekend.

Below are some bets to consider, you may also want to read the in-play betting notes as well

BACK – Justin Rose for top 5 at $1.80 for 2 units

BACK – Justin Thomas for top 5 at $2.90 for 1 unit

BACK – Tony Finau for top 10 at $2.40 for 2 units

BACK – Tiger Woods for top 10 at $2.70 for 1 unit

BACK – Tommy Fleetwood for top 20 at $1.90 for 2 units

 


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