BMW Championship: Expert Preview

Aronimink GC, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, September 6-9th

Course Details

The Fed Cup is down to the top 70 players for the BMW Championship, and it’s all about Bryson DeChambeau, whom has flown back into form with back to back victories in the FED EX Cup. Marc Leishman is the defending champion, and showed signs of some form return last week, however I am still not convinced he will contend again this year, based on his overall recent form.

Aronimink Golf Club is located in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, a suburb west of Philadelphia and its championship course is consistently rated among the top golf courses in the United States. Depending on how they set-up the course this week, it can play tough like it has in the past. In 2010 the course was ranked the 4th hardest course by the PGA Tour.

Weather Report

Thursday –  33 degrees, scattered thunderstorms, precipitation 50%, humidity 64%, Wind 13km/h

Friday – 27 degrees, cloudy, precipitation 20%, humidity 73%, 13km/h

Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Year Winner Runner Up
2017 M Leishman* R Fowler, J Rose*
2016 D Johnson* P Casey*
2015 J Day D Berger
2014 B Horschel B Watson
2013 Z Johnson N Watney
2012 R McIlroy P Mickelson, L Westwood
2011 J Rose* J Sendon
2010 D Johnson* P Casey*
2009 T Woods* J Furyk, M Leishman*
2008 C Villegas D Hart
2007 T Woods* A Baddeley

Players contending more than once *

Players contending more than twice**

Top 25 World Rankings Form Review

Please note Last 5 event stats are European Tour & PGA Tour combined. Scoring average is last 5 events on PGA Tour.

Player Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5 Scoring Average To Par 72
1. Dustin Johnson T7 T11 T27 T3 1st 69
2. Brooks Koepka T12 T8 1ST 5TH MC 69.61
3. Justin Thomas T24 T8 T6 1ST MC 69.84
4. Justin Rose 2ND MC T19 T2 T9 71.11
5. Jon Rahm T43 MC T4 T17 MC 71.43
6. Francesco Molinari MC T6 T39 1ST T2 70.11
7. Bryson DeChambeau 1ST 1ST MC 30TH T51 70.33
8. Rory McIlroy T12 T50 T6 T2 T28 70.11
9. Rickie Fowler T12 T17 T28 T6 12TH 71.5
10. Jordan Spieth T12 T25 T12 T60 T9 70.8
11. Jason Day MC T20 T19 T10 T17 71.06
12. Tommy Fleetwood T24 T20 T35 T14 T6 69.95
13. Bubba Watson T34 MC T31 MC MC 72.64*
14. Patrick Reed T35 T25 MC T28 T9 71.38
15. Alex Noren T43 MC MC T31 T17 71.88
16. Paul Casey T21 T60 MC T31 T7 72.16
17. Tony Finau T4 2ND T42 T10 T39 69.7
18. Hideki Matsuyama T4 T15 T11 T35 T39 70.1
19. Webb Simpson T49 T28 2ND T19 T24 70.15
20. Xander Schauffele T49 MC T35 68TH T2 72
21. Marc Leishman T34 T15 T34 T71 T14 71.45
22. Henrik Stenson T69 MC T39 T35 T6 71.56
23. Patrick Cantlay T24 T8 T27 T6 T12 70.25
24. Phil Mickelson T12 T15 MC T24 T24 70.95
25. Tyrrell Hatton T12 T20 T10 T28 MC 70.75
26. Tiger Woods T24 T40 2ND T31 T6 70.5

Poor Form*- Players Averaging over par – John Rahm, Henrik Stenson, Marc Leishman, Xander Schauffele, Paul Casey and Alex Noren are out of form in my opinion. I will not be placing any “back” bets on any of these players this week.

Good Form** – Once again Dustin Johnson continues his good run of form, with Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau the next best in overall stroke averages the past 5 events. There is then a group of players which include Bryson Dechambeau, Francesco Molinari, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama, and Rory McIlroy. Hopefully we can find some value in some of these players. Tiger Woods is playing good enough to win, its just a matter of when I believe.

Top 25 World Rankings Performance at the Event the past 3 years

Player 2017 2016 2015 Scoring Average
1. Dustin Johnson T33 1ST T7 68.33**
2. Brooks Koepka T12 T32 T49 70.5
3. Justin Thomas T47 T32 T13 70.25
4. Justin Rose T2 T24 T13 69.08
5. Jon Rahm T5 DNP DNP 68.25**
6. Francesco Molinari T12 DNP DNP 69.25
7. Bryson DeChambeau T33 DNP DNP 70
8. Rory McIlroy T58 T42 T4 70.41
9. Rickie Fowler T2 59TH T4 69.41
10. Jordan Spieth T7 9TH T13 69.08
11. Jason Day 4TH W/D 1ST 68.09**
12. Tommy Fleetwood DNP DNP DNP
13. Bubba Watson DNP T20 T10 69.63
14. Patrick Reed 65TH T13 T28 70.66
15. Alex Noren DNP DNP DNP
16. Paul Casey T33 2ND T23 68.91**
17. Tony Finau T7 T66 T47 71.33*
18. Hideki Matsuyama T47 T24 T7 70
19. Webb Simpson T9 DNP T64 70.88
20. Xander Schauffele T20 DNP DNP 69.5
21. Marc Leishman 1ST T52 DNP 69
22. Henrik Stenson T51 DNP T10 70
23. Patrick Cantlay T9 DNP DNP 69
24. Phil Mickelson T20 T24 T32 70.09
25. Tyrrell Hatton DNP DNP DNP
26. Tiger Woods DNP DNP DNP

Good History at Event: Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, and Jason Day all have good history at the event. John Rahm has only played once, so it is very difficult to get an accurate form guide at this event.

Poor History at Event: Tony Finau has struggled a little at this tournament, and although it’s not something that will carry enormous weight in my rankings, its still something to be aware of though.

Adjusted Stroke Averages for the Top 25 World Ranked Players

You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

Player My Rankings My Price Betfair
1.       Dustin Johnson 69.01 9 10
2.       Justin Thomas 70.02 16 17
3.       Tommy Fleetwood 70.04 17 44
4.       Tony Finau 70.11 18 32
5.       Brooks Koepka 70.15 19 18
6.       Patrick Cantlay 70.23 20 50
7.       Hideki Matsuyama 70.28 22 23
8.       Bryson DeChambeau 70.31 23 19
9.       Francesco Molinari 70.31 26 42
10.    Webb Simpson 70.36 30 65
11.    Justin Rose 70.38 32 17
12.    Jason Day 70.39 36 38
13.    Rory McIlroy 70.4 38 20
14.    Jordan Spieth 70.4 40 21
15.    Tiger Woods 70.47 42 27
16.    Phil Mickelson 70.77 46 80
17.    Jon Rahm 70.77 46 36
18.    Rickie Fowler 70.78 50 38
19.    Tyrrell Hatton 70.85 55 65
20.    Henrik Stenson 70.98 60 85
21.    Marc Leishman 70.99 65 75
22.    Patrick Reed 71.07 70 75
23.    Paul Casey 71.26 75 80
24.    Alex Noren 71.34 80 130
25.    Xander Schauffele 71.41 90 130
Bubba Watson 71.51 100 70

Betting Notes

Once again the market is correct in having Dustin Johnson as a clear favorite and Justin Thomas as second favorite. Brooks Koepka is moving back inline this week with correct odds. However there is some value to be had.

“The Overs” – I have Tommy Fleetwood 3rd favorite this week at $17 not $44, he has been playing very consistent golf lately and scoring well. Tony Finau is another that is performing well and ranks 4th favorite for me this week and should be $18 not $32. Patrick Cantlay is another player that the market seem to forget about. He is an inform consistent player at present, and I have him $20 not $50. Webb Simpson is also a “double over”.

“The Under’s” – Justin Rose played well last week, but I have him as an “under” this week, there seems to be a slight over re-action to his strong finish last week and the market forgets he missed the cut two starts ago. Jordan Spieth is still an under in my opinion, I need to see him contend a tournament or two before I mark him $20 or under, and the same goes for Rory McIIroy.

Not only can you compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find “overs” and “unders”, but you can also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.

In Play Trading Opportunities

Assess the scores after Day 1 and if the tournament is low scoring then apply my trading strategies mentioned in previous articles. “Laying” morning player with a good scoring and “Re-Backing” before commencing round 2.

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.

Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. Therefore it can be great for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3.

Pre Tournament Bets

Hope you all enjoyed the Finau v Rahm match bet last week for 3 units, Dustin Johnson beating Justin Thomas, the “lay” on John Rahm for Top 20 and the “back” Tony Finau for top 20. Patrick Cantlay with his T24 position nearly got there and the tied match bet between Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka very nearly triggered. Overall is was an ok week with an 17 unit outlay for a 19 unit return/ profit 2 unit.

I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool. Below are some bet options to choose from.

 BACK – Jason Day to beat Jon Rahm for 2 units

 BACK – Dustin Johnson to beat Rory McIlroy for 2 units

 BACK – Justin Rose to beat Rickie Rowler for 1 unit

 BACK – Patrick Cantlay to beat Adam Scott for 1 unit

 LAY –  John Rahm to finish Top 10 at $4.30 for 1 unit

 BACK – Patrick Cantlay to finish Top 20 at $2.30 for 1 unit

 BACK – Tony Finau to finish Top 20 at $2.10 for 2 units

 BACK – Tommy Fleetwood to finish Top 20 at $2.50 for 1 unit

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