The Importance of Jockeys

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Education Piece

Axis is Australia’s leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings. www.ratings2win.com.au

The Importance of Jockeys

The importance of jockeys and the weighting that should be given to them has been a long term debate amongst form students. To our knowledge we are the only organisation that produces proprietary “dynamic” jockey ratings that accurately measure a range of factors that include but are not limited to current and historical form cycles, actual versus expected betting market influences and other biases that culminate in an accurate single value designed to help punters better determine the effect that a jockey should have on their ratings/price assessments for any given runner.

The legendary character George E. Smith (aka Pittsburg Phil) is well known to punters worldwide as are many of his maxims. Those pertaining to jockeys are:

“A good horse, a good jockey, a good bet”.

“A moderate jockey, a moderate horse, a moderate bet”.

“A poor jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet.”

A poor jockey, a moderate horse a bad bet.”

Punters could do worse than to follow these or at least consider more the impact of the jockey that are to ride their selection/s.

Depending on how you go about producing your own form assessments/markets will determine just how much impact the jockey riding today will have. For us, the significance of the jockey is such that the difference between the very best riders and those at the bottom of the ranks can turn in an average race a $4 rated chance into an $8 chance or vice versa from $4 into $2.65.

Obviously the ability of a rider is also influenced by the standard of their everyday competition. For example, Greg Ryan is a top country hoop but when he comes to town he is not expected nor should he be, to ride to the same level of success that he enjoys when riding the country circuit. Accordingly, R2W Axis allows Professional clients the ability to weight the importance between racing jurisdictions so that the jockey ratings are then automatically adjusted to reflect the standard of competition relevant for the upcoming race under preview. This is an important point missed by many when deciding on the ratings given to jockeys.

Below is a table that represents the performance of the R2W Axis Jockey Ratings for the period 1/8/2015 to 31/7/2016. During this time there were 17,330 races and 175,308 riders that contested TAB races within Australia. The reliability of the figures is therefore strong given the sample size.

r2w education table

As you can see from the data in the table above there is a strong correlation between our jockey ratings and the resultant strike rate. If you would like to learn more about how you can benefit from the inclusion of jockey ratings into your assessments or would simply like to discuss why having R2W Axis makes good sense, then feel free to contact me directly by email or phone.

 

Cheers and Good Punting

Paul Daily

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