Five Betting Trends to Follow

Astute punters will recognise the importance of following long-term betting trends even if the angles don’t look overly appealing from a visual perspective. Here are five non-team specific betting trends to follow.


1. Bet the Under in the Wet

It sounds obvious but punters often get lured into the over when the match total is adjusted down when wet weather hits or is forecast. Since 2008 the under hits at 63% when the weather is wet with the average score tallying just 36.1 points. Since 2013 that average is just 33.9.


2. Big Home Underdogs are Money

Big home underdogs can be bet with total confidence in head-to-head and line markets. Home teams getting a start of at least 8 points cover at 63% while those teams back in match winner markets return a profit of 26% on turnover.


3. The Over Hits in Lopsided Games

The over has saluted in 70% of matches when a team has been favoured by 18 or more since 2008. The average total in these matches is 49.63 with the favourite averaging 36.12 points an outing.


4. Home Dogs’ Recent Defence Tells a Story

Home underdogs of 6 or more points off conceding 13 or fewer the previous start cover at a ridiculous rate of 74%. The usual tale here is an underrated team tackle a premiership heavyweight and their recent form is undervalued by the market.


5. The Five-Day Turnaround is a Myth

Time between games is critical in a lot of sports, the NBA and AFL being two of note. In the NRL it is a myth. Since 2013 teams on a five-day turnaround win at 50% and cover at 53%. Those with an interstate trip on a short turnaround actually cover at 61% with a 10% profit on turnover in head-to-head betting.


Related Articles

Close Games

The single best indicator of how a team will perform from one year to the next, or the direction ...

Read More

Defence Wins Premierships

There is an old adage often credited to college football legend Bear Bryant that says offense sells tickets but ...

Read More

Dividing the Season

One critical element to having success as an NRL punter is identifying that all rounds of the season are ...

Read More