Track Influence and Box Bias

Just like with any racing code, there is always track bias that we need to allow for. Tracks generally play evenly as all betting tracks race on sand so there is rarely any run on bias.

Obviously a greyhound race is going to have an on pace bias because the greyhound that has shown early speed and cleared the pack is likely to win. A greyhound chases best when he is on the lure and in clear running.


The GRV website and The Dogs website readily have information available on track records, 1st split records and winning box strike rates.

In my opinion, winning box bias’ are the most important and must be allowed for when staking.

For Victoria, track statistics can be found at the following link.

Cranbourne – 14/05/2016 to 14/05/2017

DistanceBox 1Box 2Box 3Box 4Box 5Box 6Box 7Box 8Total
311 m6566585442565861460
520 m5443474244393537341
699 m2342212319

Analysing the above, it is clear that over the 520 metres, box draws matter. There is data to suggest Boxes 1-3 clearly have the best strike rateBox 6-8 have the poorest winning ratio. There is a short run to the first turn and greyhounds can get posted wide and checked, so the data makes sense.

Over the 699 metres, there is a small bias to the inside draws but generally greyhounds will get their chance from any draw.


Weather

Weather does have an impact on greyhound racing but no way near as much as the gallops. Most of the theories are opinion based and no real evidence to prove it and would depend on who you talk to. The most common theories are:

  1. If there has been heavy rain before or during the meeting the dogs drawn inside can be disadvantaged as the mud and water are more likely to gravitate to the sand on the rail hence the going will be heavier and a bias created to dogs from wide draws in the better going.
  2. Dogs race better in the wet than bitches. Dogs are heavier and have better traction on a sloppy track.
  3. Greyhounds can’t run fast times in the wet and needs to be accounted for in future form

Here is an attached video of the Group 1 2016 Top Gun at The Meadows in pouring rain.

Pantera Nera in Box 1 started favourite and seemed to be disadvantaged by the inside draw. The winner Dundee Osprey, a wide runner using plenty of the track.

Personally, I think Point 1 has merit but don’t subscribe to Points 2 and 3. My belief that a superstar dog will still run slick time even if in the wet. Punting is an opinion based game and your better to back yourself in on theories that work for you.


Converting City & Country Form

Generally a greyhound will have a few starts at provincial tracks before running in the city. This is especially the case in NSW with only one Sydney metropolitan track.

In Victoria, maiden races are frequently run at The Meadows on a Wednesday and Sandown Park on a Sunday so a dog can race at a city track very early in his career.

As sprint races at city tracks are run over 500 metres, the best way to decipher country times is by their run home time.Becoming familiar with overall times on country tracks and a dogs run home time is imperative.

Geelong and Warragul are good examples. If a greyhound at these tracks breaks 26.00 seconds it is a good indicator that they will be able to run 500+ metres at a city track. A run home time of 14.50 at Warragul is strong and a good gauge for city tracks.

With maidens being run at The Meadows and Sandown Park my preference is that they have a race start on the track before they become a betting commodity. I apply this rule across the board as I prefer the greyhound to have seen the venue. In Victoria you cannot determine if they have trialled there but with NSW the Public trial information for maidens is available on form guides at thedogs.com.au.

When dogs are having their first run on a city track, if they can run home in better than 10.70 at Sandown Park and 12.20 at The Meadows it is a strong sign they can run the distance as they gain more race experience.


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