Test Match Strategies

The best strategy I’ve ever heard on test match trading was to be patient. It’s so easy to get involved in the first session of day 1, but understanding that there are over 24 hours of cricket to be played in a test match is extremely important. So many times I’ve seen people in a mess by lunch on day 1. From there it can be a long road back sometimes.


One Strategy To Get Your Started

In terms of blind strategies, laying the draw at SP is as good as it gets. This strategy has shown a profit every year for the past decade and unless there are significant changes to the fundamentals of test match cricket, this won’t change any time soon.

The reasoning behind this is long and arduous but basically boils down to sub-continent players in the market overestimating the chance of a draw both pre-match and in-play. This allows other players to profit from one of the last remaining blind betting strategies on the exchange.


Horses For Courses

Digging deeper into test match trading strategies, it all boils down to teams, location and conditions. There are times when backing the team that bats first is a terrible idea (if a poor away side wins the toss and bats in England in May) and times when it makes complete sense (India at home under clear skies on a pitch that will likely break apart as the test progresses).

There’s certainly no generic formula for this or else there would be thousands of successful cricket traders throughout the world. As with many of these things, it is a case of hard work and dedication to learn and understand the nuances of the game. Even after putting in years of time and effort it isn’t a generic strategy. Test cricket trading is extremely fluid and thousands of variables change on a ball by ball basis and you have to react and adapt to the current scenario.


Simulate Before Your Start

For someone who is new to test match trading I would advise monitoring markets without placing bets for a long period of time. It’s a great way to see how markets react to events on the field without having the pressure of having any of your money invested. You’ll get a feel for how the markets move and you’ll notice opportunities. Specifically, the markets tend to be at their least efficient towards the end of a test match as there is more panic.

Age old strategies of doing the opposite of what everyone is else doing stand true in this field as they do in almost any trading market on the planet.

If everyone is laying the draw it stands to reason that the draw lay is probably ‘overbet’ and there could be a bit of value backing the draw for a trade.


Conclusion

If you’d like to trade test match cricket professionally, or just profitably, it can be done. Your best starting point is to have the Betfair Exchange match odds in front of you while you’re watching a test. Keep an eye on the market fluctuations as the match unfolds. You’ll notice the volume, volatility and overreactions.

One simple way to start trading with real money is to lay the draw at the start of a match, and build your book from there. Additionally, or alternatively, you can go against the market after it moves significantly. You’ll develop more sophisticated strategies as you gain experience.


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