How to Win in Early Season

These three factors can frequently all pop-up in the same game, which would really increase your betting confidence. Looking for one or all three can more often than not get you an edge in this early part of the season.

Remember, as the long season progresses, you must re-assess what is working and what isn’t. What factors play a part through the middle part of the season and towards the end when teams are either bringing players up for experience or adjusting the rosters in preparation for baseball in October. Like betting in any code, recording your bets is crucial to your long-term success….


Key Factors

1. Starting Pitchers

Find starting pitchers (and back them) that are not so reliant on the fastball to get hitters out. MLB standard hitters can all hit a fastball, even if it is 100+ MPH. Obviously, they are a little harder to catch up with, but in the early part of the year, hitters struggle to make adjustments to pitchers that predominantly use off-speed pitches as there out pitch. Starting position players in MLB will have somewhere in the region of 50-80 at bats in spring training, and they will be hitting “the heater” from day 1, but that nasty curveball or change-up will take some months to consistently get the better of.

2. Back ‘Overs’

Going against what most MLB handicappers will tell you, the “OVERS” is particularly attractive early in the year. Obviously, you still have to handicap a match and you need to be able to get a line better than yours to bet, but all the key fundamentals will still be rusty in the first month. Pitching accuracy (leading to walks) especially in the bullpen, hitters being more patient at the plate and position players fielding not as brilliantly as they would be at the end of the year, will all lead to more runs being scored. Look for fields in cities that are still playing in wintery conditions early in the year and Vegas will be handicapping these a lot lower than they would later in the year in the summer months.

3. Power Bats

Look for teams with “power” bats. Early in the year, the big inning is never far away. Players that have hit 25+ home runs in previous years did not do that by accident, and as previously stated many pitchers are reliant on the fastball early in the year, something that these sluggers thrive on. Look for teams that have hit 200+ HR in the previous year (obviously can be adjusted with acquisitions in the off-season that would change that stat) playing against teams that did not.

Stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/home


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