Racing Systems Examples

In our last article we introduced the concept of racing systems, how they can be used as a terrific starting point for your overall betting strategy and the steps to developing your own systems.

To give you a head start on the path to using them in your betting, we’ve put together a few useful methods along with the historical results.

All results data is based on flat races from 1st Jan 2013 to 23rd February 2017, using the best of SP and 3 totes as the dividend. Staking is proportional to the starting price of the horse to collect the same amount on each bet.


The Quick Back Up

Rules:

  • Last start run within 7 days (including 7 days)
  • Last start finish position of 1st or 2nd
  • Market rank for this race = Fixed odds favourite or second favourite at jump time

Results:

RunsWinsSR%POT%
325698930.40%4.20%

These results show both a large sample and excellent overall advantage, which you can build into a very effective betting strategy.

The inclusion of a rule on the market rank of the horse (i.e. first or 2nd favourite) helps to qualify the contenders overall form credentials for the race, beyond the positive angle of a good last start run and quick back up. It uses the efficiency of the market’s opinion to weed out those that might be outclassed or will simply win / return much less than the average due to other factors.

In some cases it can be uncertain whether a horse is going to end up second or third favourite in the market and whether it really qualifies under these specific rules. If there is doubt then you should still always consider the horse a qualifier. It’s no big deal if some actually end up 3rd favourite. It’s far more important to be able to take the best price when it becomes available, rather than wait for certainty about the horse’s position in the market and miss a good price.

If you like to do your own form and / or use ratings intelligence then you can drop the market rank rule and rely on your ratings and form assessment to include those that look to be among the top few chances. On our WFA Performance Ratings, the results are very similar to the above if you use rating rank 1 or 2 instead of market rank 1 or 2. This obviously removes any uncertainty in the decision making process and allows contenders to be known well in advance of the start of the race.


Darren Weir Top Jockeys

Rules:

  • Runners trained by Darren Weir in races held in VIC
  • Horse has had at least 2 runs this preparation (i.e. it’s 3rd up or more into its preparation)
  • Ridden by B Rawiller or D Lane
  • Less than $21 in the fixed odds market at jump time

Results:

RunsWinsSR%POT%
110225423.00%8.20%

This method capitalises on the consistency of the Darren Weir stable as their horses get into their preparation, with the talents of two top class jockeys that he regularly uses. Brad Rawiller has delivered great results for the Weir stable over many years, while the partnership with Damien Lane is a more recent one, but is already proving to be formidable.


Last Start Winners

Rules:

  • Horse won its last start
  • Last start was within 55 days of the upcoming race (i.e. it’s not first up today)
  • Was running 1st or 2nd at the turn in the last start race that it won
  • Is racing at the same distance or further i.e. no back in distance
  • Market rank for this race = Fixed odds favourite or second favourite at jump time

Results:

RunsWinsSR%POT%
7574236131.20%2.00%

This method combines the obvious benefits of a horse coming off a last start win with the concept of “early speed” which is an undervalued characteristic in horse racing. A horse that won last start while racing up on the lead at the turn (1st or 2nd) has shown a combination of both early speed and good overall form, which is a very solid profile for future betting prospects. We eliminate those back in distance at their next start as they are a greater risk of not being able to race forward again.

Similar to the Quick Back Up System, we use a market rank rule to qualify the contenders overall form credentials for the race and eliminate those that have inferior traits that are likely to see it perform below the overall average. You can equally use ratings or your own form assessment to satisfy yourself that beyond the positive system angles, the horse is overall a strong contender for the race.


Applying Racing Systems

As mentioned in our last article, a list of qualifying horses from a racing system should only ever be seen as potential bets for that day. It’s important that you take control of your final betting decisions so that you can firstly increase your overall profit, but also maintain your own confidence and healthy state of mind by avoiding bets that simply don’t feel right, regardless of what the rules might say.

Your aim should be to review any qualifiers and look to eliminate those that are likely to be higher risk / poorer value compared to the overall average. This will help to increase both your overall strike rate and profit. You should also not underestimate the potential to significantly increase your profit by taking prices that are available on the Betfair Exchange.

In terms of eliminating higher risk candidates and just as importantly avoiding mistakes in that area that will likely reduce your profit, it’s very much a case by case scenario. The more you work on your skills in this area the better you will become. However we can offer the following advice that will help put you on the right path to some quality decisions:

  • Horses that are likely to settle back in the second half of the field are invariably poor value betting prospects. Your profit will be boosted by eliminating them and focusing on those likely to race at least in the front half of the field and preferably up near the lead. The only exception to this is if your analysis gives you high confidence that the track pattern or pace profile of the race is likely to advantage horses coming from back in the field.
  • Horses drawn inside barrier (1-3) when the inside section of the track is clearly a disadvantage and races are being dominated by horses well away from the fence are considerable betting risks.
  • A significant jockey change from a top performing jockey to one that has underperformed against market expectations (based on statistical data, not opinion) is reason to think twice about the horse as a betting prospect, especially if drawn awkwardly.
  • DO NOT eliminate horses that are capable of racing forward simply because they have drawn a wide barrier. History shows that the effects of barriers are largely overestimated by the market and those drawn wider are on average more profitable.
  • DO NOT eliminate horses solely on the basis that it has yet to win or place at the distance, track or in the track condition. The importance of such stats is overestimated by the market.
  • DO NOT eliminate horse solely on the basis that it is rising sharply in weight or has to carry a large weight.

Related Articles

Racing Systems Overview

In our last article we introduced the concept of racing systems, how they can be used as a terrific ...

Read More

Introduction to Ratings

Ratings are numerical measures that reflect the quality of a horse’s past performances or other specific characteristics.

Read More

Betting with Ratings

In our last article we introduced the concept of ratings and how they are typically constructed. We also touched ...

Read More