Flemington, Tuesday 7th November 2017 – Melbourne Cup

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Tuesday 7th – 17, partly cloudy, possible late shower

R7 Emirates Melbourne Cup G1 3200m

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners 6yo Horses
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or less, 4 of past 5 winners 55kg or less
  • 5 of past 5 winners have had a lead up run of 2000m or further in Australia
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 5th or 6th up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have drawn Barrier 10 or wider
  • 1 of past 5 winners SP favourites

Major Players

1. HARTNELL: Meets Almandin better at the weights this year and comes here four weeks between runs from an OK run at best in the Caulfield Stakes. Big query running a strong 3200m and looks four lengths below his best.

2. ALMANDIN: 56.5kg is a pretty fair weight to defend his crown. Completely ignoring his last start in the Bart Cummings when connections had clearly backed off him with this race the only focus. His final sectional indicated he ‘blew out’ in fitness so expect a complete form reversal and is likely to finish in the top 3.

3. HUMIDOR: Brilliant winner of the Makybe Diva Stakes over the mile here and proved his class again running champion mare Winx to a length in the Cox Plate, which is a proven lead up profile race. 4 of the last 12 winners have come through that event. Blake Shinn got the horse to settle well last start and the only question mark over the horse is his ability to stay. Has a powerful sprint which is crucial for this event. Loves Flemington and is a major chance.

4. TIBERIAN (FR): French import that comes into the race with no Australian lead up. Has failed at G1 level in staying race in France but is hard to lay at the 30/1 quote.

5. MARMELO (GB): Winner of the G2 Prix Kergolay 3000m at Deauville. Dunaden and Americain came through that event to win the race. Hugh Bowman was ultra conservative on Marmelo in the Caulfield Cup and he found the line as good as anything. Will get along way back in running and is drawn off the fence and fits the profile perfectly as a lightly raced improving stayer with only 55kg.

6. RED CARDINAL (IRE): Finished six lengths behind Marmello in the G2 Prix Kergolay and is attempting to win without a lead up run in Australia. Kerrin McEvoy is a positive but I’d be happy to risk him.

7. JOHANNE VERMEER (IRE): Group 1 winner at 1400m and was a touch unlucky not to win the Caulfield Cup when beaten 1.5 lengths to Boom Time. Stays at 54.5kg but has drawn barrier three and will map buried the fence. Traffic a major concern and 3200m is further concern.

8. BONDI BEACH (IRE): Completely out of form. No.

9. MAX DYNAMITE: Unlucky not to win the 2015 Melbourne Cup when faced with severe traffic issues in the home straight. Drawn barrier 2 which could present the same scenario yet again. Might be past his best as an 8yo.  

10. VENTURA STORM (IRE): Flat run in the Caulfield Cup but we’ve seen Humidor complete a form reversal out of that race and getting back to Flemington is a positive for this horse. Glen Boss has a great record in the race and can push forward from a good draw. Good roughie.

12. WICKLOW BRAVE (GB): Unfancied in the Caulfield Cup and was checked rounding the bend. Runs 3200m but could be another past his prime.

13. BIG DUKE: This horse has been flying all preparation. Was a huge run in the Sydney Cup last year and thrives with racing. Like Almandin it will pay to ignore his last start when Weir stable probably backed off him with this race in mind. Drops to 53.5kg and looks the best roughie.

14. US ARMY RANGER: Looks too dour and no Australian lead up is another negative.

15. BOOM TIME: Caulfield Cup winner who has a dream run to win that race. I’m not convinced he can run a strong 3200m but concede he loves Flemington.

16. GALLANTE: Racing well below what’s required to win this but won last year’s Sydney Cup. Not for me.

17. LIBRAN: Great run in the Moonee Valley Cup and in form but doubt he can step up to this level.

18. NAKEETA (GB): Winner of the Ebor Hcp over 2787m which is a proven pathway to this race. Heartbreak City ran 2nd to Almandin after streeting his rivals in the Ebor in 2016. His win less impressive in this year’s Ebor but fits the profile as a surprise winner.

19. SINGLE GAZE: Had every favour in the Caulfield Cup and despite her toughness I’ll be against the mare.

20. WALL OF FIRE (IRE): Lightly raced stayer that was ultra-impressive in the Herbert Power behind Lord Fandango and Boom Time. Both runners bounced through the run impressively and this runner drops 5kg from that lead up run. His sectional profile last start for his final 800m indicates he’s a stayer ready for a strong 3200m. I’ve rated him $8 favourite after drawing barrier 15 which allows him to stay off the fence.

21. THOMAS HOBSON (GB): Genuine stayer boasting wins between 3000-4000m. Has been heavily backed over the past week but is attempting to win the race without an Australian lead up. Wary.

22. REKINDLING: Lightly raced and progressive stayer that wasn’t far away in the G1 St Leger over 2922m. That form is good enough to win this race but he’s 7 weeks between runs and few 4yo’s have won the event. Will be forward off midfield and will look the winner at some stage.

23. AMELIA’S STAR: Racing in career best form and happy to forgive her run in the Caulfield Cup. She looked good winning the Bart Cummings over 2500m but I’m not convinced she’ll run out 3200m.

24. CISMONTANE (NZ): Tough on speed runner from the Waterhouse & Bott yard that found a way to win off the canvas in the Lexus on Saturday. That form generally holds up for Cup day and drawing a line through Big Duke with 50kg it can finish in the first half of the race.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) WALL OF FIRE (IRE)- 2 units at $12 or more.

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