The Betfair Insider: Caulfield Feature Previews, Saturday 15th October 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: +6m

Weather Forecast:

Friday 14th – Max 23°C. Shower or two.

Saturday 15th – Max 25°C. Partly cloudy

R4 Ethereal Stakes 2000m Group 3 SWP 3YO Fillies

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 4th up or further into their prep
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 2 of past 5 winners raced at non metropolitan venues at their previous start
  • 2 of past 5 winners via the Edward Manifold & 1 Flight Stakes

Major Players

1. Moqueen: Had shown little at its previous eight starts before breaking her maiden status in Dulcify at Randwick two weeks ago. The race was run at a farcical tempo and Moqueen was able to sprint over the top of her rivals before being eased right down on the line. The firm track appears a positive also.

2. Sebring Dream: Although sound in the Thousand Guineas she was only the sixth best closing sectional of the race so I’d prefer to overlook her based on the past profile of the race and stepping up to 2000m at a very short price.

3. Bella Sorellastra: She really attacked the line running strong sectionals in the Edward Manifold which has proven to be a strong formline for the Ethereal in the past. She has another nightmare draw and will spot them a big start but should finish powerfully.

Betting Strategy

With limited ways to go I’ll be laying Sebring Dream. She’s come up too short for mine with this race traditionally favouring staying fillies who can really jump out of the ground when they get up to 2000m.

 LAY (WIN) Sebring Dream for 3 units at $4 or less.

R5 Caulfield Classic 2000m Group 3 SW 3YO

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners were Fillies (2015 Sacred Eye, 2014 Fontein Ruby)
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 4th up or deeper into their preparation
  • 5 of past 5 winners placed (1st, 2nd, or 3rd) in their lead up run
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourite
  • 0 of past 5 winners last raced in the Caulfield Guineas (Manifold x 2, UCI x 2, Stutt)

Major Players

1. Seaburge: Has really attacked the line at his past three starts and looked all but the winner of the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas before Devine Prophet kicked back on the line. The Caulfield Guineas not produced a Caulfield Classic in the past five years indicating the rise from 1600m – 2000m is quite substantial and underplayed by the market.

2. Good Standing: Trapped three wide in the Caulfield Guineas and although never looking likely (beaten 2L) he showed good quality to battle all the way to line and hold off half the field. In his favour on Saturday is just a slow predicted early tempo and a nice soft draw. The past five winners of this race placed at their previous start so his short quote (around $4) is heavily based on perceived map favours.

4. Wine Bush: Two of the past five winners of this race have come via the UCI Stakes. Wine Bush won this years UCI Stakes and broke his maiden status after hitting the line at most of his previous starts. That’s a great indicator that this horse will be at his best at around the 2000m + and the Blinkers also seemed to switch him on last start. Has to be respected highly with Waller / Bowman combination.

5. Rocketeer: Just a bob of the heads separated Rocketeer and Wine Bush in the UCI. He’s drawn soft again and must rate highly.

8. Kent: Luckless in the UCI after being shuffled back through the field and being held up at the top of the straight. Kent picked up really well and was strong through the line. He’ll be in a more forward spot from the wide draw and looks a value play in the race. Stable are flying.

9. Odeon: Restrained to last from the wide barrier in the UCI and finished off well before peaking on his run late. I can see another strong performance from a better draw here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Wine Bush – 2 units at $10 or more

 BACK (WIN) Rocketeer – 1.5 units at $12 or more

 BACK (WIN) Kent – 1.5 units at $15 or more

R6 Coongy Stakes G3 2000m

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners had their previous run in the Epsom Handicap
  • 3 of past 5 winners were 5th up or deeper in to their preparation
  • 3 of past 5 winners were SP favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners drew barrier 5 or lower
  • 1 of past 5 winners carried 59kgs

Major Players

1. It’s Somewhat: Maps to get the run of the race from barrier one and won easily last start despite a lack of quality opposition. Gave him a pass mark beaten 4.6L by Winx and Hauraki. Close to his peak here and if he reproduces his best rating in Australia could benefit most if The Cleaner strings the field out.

2. The Cleaner: Natural leader who may find company with Tom Melbourne at his girth if fired up. Always a key player when he races due to racing style but not racing well enough to win.

3. Maurus: Fourth start for the Smerdon stable and building to a peak however he will be back and possibly caught wide. If he can, will run on but will be giving too much start to his principle opposition here. Likely to drift off the early market.

4. Vanbrugh: A closing ninth in the Epsom which profiles well for this race which was a good run considering he missed the start. Hasn’t run a place since winning the Spring Champion Stakes this time last year. Only beaten 0.2L by It’s Somewhat 2 starts ago and meets him 4kg better for that effort but the price looks on the short side if there’s a forward and back division of the race.

6. Tom Melbourne: His career peak came over 1800m at Flemington before winning the Albury Cup but has since gone backwards at every start. Will be taking on The Cleaner for his favoured leading role. I need to see an improved effort before I can come into him at this price.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) It’s Somewhat – 10 units at $2.8 or more

R7 Tristarc Stakes 4yo + Mares G2 1400m

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been favourite
  • 3 of past 5 winners had their previous run at 1400m
  • 3 of past 5 winners were 2nd up
  • 5 of past 5 winners carried 57.5kg or more

Major Players 

1. First Seal: The last horse to beat Winx her fitness gave out late first up. At her best she would be a clear favourite. But in a very tough race I’m willing to bet that best is still another run or two away.

2. Tycoon Tara: Her last four starts have been her career best runs since switching to the Snowden team. Clashes here with several horses she beat home last start in a race where there three other rivals have since won or run excellent races. Tough to knock but the market seems to have found her now.

3. Pearls: One of those that chased home Tycoon Tara last start. Fourth up last preparation off 21 days she was beaten 0.5L in a Group 3 in one of her career peak runs. Gets a great run and looks some value.

4. French Emotion: Blew them away last start and went to a new peak after settling off the pace. No reason she can’t repeat that effort but unsuited at these conditions.

6. Danish Twist: Provincial Championships winner last prep and comes into this off an outstanding first up effort when she just missed behind Takedown. That was her best career performance and she must repeat but one definitely on an upward spiral. She must come from last and run over the top of plenty of good horses but she has an x-factor that says she can do it.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Danish Twist – 10 units at $4 or more

R9 Caulfield Sprint 1000m Group 2 HCP

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 2 of past 5 winners have carried 58kg or more
  • 2 of past 5 winners Mares

Major Players 

1. Lankan Rupee – Not seen at the races for 371 days, Lankan Rupee has been impressing at the jump outs. His last start 1100m 3rd in the Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield was ordinary by his lofty standards. He’s poorly suited back to Handicap conditions and looks worth taking on.

2. Our Boy Malachi: An enormous run first up in the Premier Stakes at Randwick after being trapped wide and battling all the way to the line. This is his first go at 1000m since joining the Hawkes stable and from an awkward draw he’ll mostly likely be trapped on a limb and I’d prefer to overlook him at current odds.

3. Faatinah: Had favours first up over 1200m at Flemington and took advantage of them before a disappointing performance next start in the Gilgai. He gets a look at Caulfield for the first time and 1000m appears short of his best distance.

4. Wild Rain: Fantastic at WFA in the Moir Stakes, Wild Rain is well suited back to Handicap conditions here. 1000m appeals and has drawn perfectly. She’s sure to run a bold race.

5. Hellbent: This horse has improved for the Weir yard and his past two performances have been simply devastating. He’s finished off his past 600m between 8 -10L quicker than the benchmark average and looks perfectly suited to a 1000m scamper around Caulfield. The punters have found him early in the week and the money keeps rolling in.   

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Hellbent – 8 units at $2 or more

R10 Moonga Stakes 4yo+ G3 1400m

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners were 4th up or deeper into their preparation
  • 4 of past 5 winners had their lead up run at 1400m or more
  • 3 of past 5 winners drew barrier 6 or closer
  • 4 of past 5 winners carried 57.5 kg ore more

Major Players 

1. Good Project: A class horse on his day but after a stunning Railway Stakes win in November last year has raced below his best. Held up for a long way in the Premiere behind Takedown last start so there will probably be some money for him but I can’t back him on recent ratings.

4. Takedown: Failed just the once in his last seven starts and that was a forgive run in the Group 1 Stradbroke. The margin of his 6 wins combined is 3L so he will make you sweat but lead or tag Mabeel and on his recent ratings is the form horse of the race. Just a small query for me around the 1400m.

6. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Does what he does week in week out, running on to close late and have “back me next time” written all over him. The problem is he has just 5 wins from 44 starts and a level 1 unit stake on each of his career runs would have you losing nearly 50% on turnover. Betting against.

11. Hopfgarten: Closed well first up after racing wide. Mixes his racing pattern between getting back and up on the pace but with a couple of fast one’s outside him he can come across and get nice run off-pace to midfield if they choose. Needs to product close to his best to win this and I think he can do that at this or his next run. Drops 5kg into this which forces me to bet.

12. Voodoo Lad: Continues to improve and ran a career best to just miss Bon Aurum in the G1 Rupert Clarke last start. He has exceptional late sectional power and he will be hard to beat but the market has certainly found him now. I’m only just happy to let him go at the price.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Hopfgarten – 5 units at $7 or more

 BACK (PLACE) Hopfgarten – 5 units at $2.25 or more

LAY (WIN) Fast ‘n’ Rocking for 2 units

 LAY (PLACE) Fast ‘n Rocking for 5 units

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