The Betfair Insider: Ascot, Saturday 3rd December 2016 – Kingston Town Classic

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 2nd – Max 29, sunny. 0% chance of rain (0mm)

Saturday 3rd – Max 24, partly cloudy. 20% chance of rain (0mm)

 

R8 Kingston Town Classic 1800m Group 1 3YO+ WFA

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners Colts or Geldings (3YO Filly Perfect reflection won it 2015)
  • 3 of past 5 winners 3YOs
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners have come through G1 Railway Stakes 1600m
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 8 or closer
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 2 weeks between runs

Major Players

3. Stratum Star: Over-raced last start in the Sandown Stakes but fought on gamely to fight out the finish with the improving Redkirk Warrior. I expect him to prefer the tempo of the Kingston Town and he can lead or take a sit from Barrier 1. He’s a winner out to 2000m and 21 days between runs with two trials looks a good setup here. Knockout runner for the in-form Damien Lane.

4. Kawi: Is the ‘weighted’ horse coming from the Railway Stakes and now meets most of his rivals 4-5.5kg better at WFA. Enjoyed a plumb run on the rails and was held up at times in the straight. He was only beaten by 4.3 lengths and stepping out to 1800m is suitable and will be in the finish.

10. Scales Of Justice: A dynamic winner of the Railway when jumping from Group 3 to Group 1 company for the first time. Was the fastest through the early section of the race (led) and was the second fastest over the final 200m when being eased down for victory. The negative is the weight rise of 6kg but I don’t see the wide draw as being a major concern as he should work across to the lead. An outstanding talent.

11. Vanbrugh: Is a few lengths short at elite G1 WFA level on the east coast, so looks well placed here in W.A. He maps to travel in the ‘sweet spot’ from barrier seven and can accelerate strongly off a solid tempo. Blinkers first time could really bring him on and he looks over the odds in early markets.

16. Perfect Reflection: Had a nice run in the Railway before being forced wide on the turn. She finished the race off nicely and although she meets Scales Of Justice better at the weights I can see her turning the result around. But she will be spotting that runner a big start.


Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Scales of Justice – 4 units at $4 or more

BACK (WIN) Vanbrugh – 1 unit at $11 or more


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