Betfair’s 2021 Euro & Copa América Datathon

Do you think you have what it takes to predict the outcome of every match of the 2021 Euro and Copa America football tournaments? 

Betfair is giving you the chance to show off your data modelling skills by building a predictive model for this year’s Euro and Copa America football tournaments! 

We’re challenging you to use your modelling skills to your advantage, be that by building your first predictive sports model, improving on an existing design or have a go something different by adapting your data skills from other fields. 

This year’s Euro and Copa America tournaments will be running simultaneously throughout June and July, presenting a perfect opportunity for keen sports and data enthusiasts to get involved and put your skills to the test against the masses in order to compete for ultimate glory!

Submissions close at 11:59pm AEST on Friday June 11th 2021 – time to get modelling! 

Thank You to all who participated in Betfair’s Euro & Copa América Datathon! Reach out to datathon@betfair.com.au to stay informed about future Betfair Datathons and other competitions.

Prize winners will be contacted shortly via contact details supplied at registration.

Final leaderboard – please note that entries marked “(i/e)” are not eligible for prizes:

* The Betfair_Market_Odds entry takes the last traded price of head-to-head markets before kick-off for each team and the draw within a match and converts them to implied probabilities.

** You can find a code walkthrough in R for the Betfair_Basic_Elo and Elo_100 entries on the Betfair Automation Hub.

*** The World_Football_Elo_Ratings model is based on the pre-tournament elo ratings found at eloratings.net.

RankModel NameCombined Log LossEuro Log LossCopa America Log LossMatches Scored
1biscuits0.77053827084143210.79730731495468420.72178036906372379
2camos0.78264452531231280.82163742404655140.711621745474949579
3bingbongslon0.78590842727485510.82317676076231720.718026819851263479
4MBD_Likelihood_Estimation0.79034891225641660.79655411044122990.779046586991220879
5PotShots0.79143061825980860.81396879567772640.750378937962886979
6elodragi0.79145830983624380.82513442528192850.730119670988746779
7p2tp0.79204280079179590.8218633517162970.73772679732216979
8HelloElo0.79217171503251850.80523587121693170.768376287696622779
9FalconsAFC0.79263118925500050.82353292420808950.736345886304731279
10dodgy10.79276615563193350.82146874498625870.740486439307984179
11JT_sokkah0.79376998937041180.82564836132867920.735705811874996179
12belilabud0.79415170776079420.83456436942597310.720542931156361479
13ML_rookie0.79476312445622970.81775386269553320.752887136948926679
14Jason90000.79507418724317170.83512023019702330.722133180434370579
15OnePointTwentyOneGigawatts0.79519692184674240.80619837513219460.775158560505383279
16XWang0.79556127099837270.76972124086026120.842627040178504679
17willingly0.79573901802712910.81469255141195410.761216510790483679
18modelsAreForNerds0.7964829867822540.81082800978421450.770354552028683279
19Betfair_Basic_Elo** (i/e)0.7971597554202670.81517826614910830.76434032516416379
20Elo100** (i/e)0.79870963050562340.80378425497880610.789466564500897679
21kenz_til_the_enz0.80221279405861860.82066391792154390.768605389879718979
22milktea0.8034411902637120.83172123123151740.751931115643780779
23CSF0.80652837344584330.82597582998543980.771106220463006879
24Saint_Lenny (i/e)0.80831591733468120.84198680663189780.746986797543322379
25Betfair_Market_Odds* (i/e)0.80887426045984740.85378327123892960.727075705112233479
26World_Football_Elo_Ratings*** (i/e)0.81101039003319520.82557312362910770.784485410983497679
27NoThoughtsHeadEmpty0.81214676227495010.8279320229582390.783395037458959679
28astaloshi0.81457661573731970.8512700049432480.74774222825509379
29craigjohnson0.81911482834441610.82377027217635930.810635269936233879
30YHD0.82050625302336390.84178607250036320.781746581833115379
31ixl0.82125746569641070.83568253045567690.79498324059917679
32jspen0.82140995468991870.86446921272302390.742980591843905479
33AJCOLLETT0.82340901332114340.83964037239752830.793844752146299179
34weak_learner0.82656482300922980.85537767256616560.77408427560195479
35Fourier170.83129383674864510.83857529713586550.818031176757636879
36thomasatkins0.83192354825265070.81334201182436670.86576848960416879
37MAM0.84191239028885260.89204975207102530.750590767042752179
38JQ_elo0.86501891957966770.88658774753650040.825732840086865479
39nine_min_model0.87703193377287290.91770437121725090.802949994142041679
40GlenHickey0.90025603564500220.94253240643589120.823252645990168779
41jacobholden2290.9032622102051020.9049566776526730.900175858782740679
42BTS0.90905980078737110.8894824322677650.94471857916236879
43DAA0.91225281377042060.95119406907617780.8413240987492279
44Adam_Elo0.91272806952820630.87502515858706390.981401228742429679
45boonie0.95620945474201990.88405423723782731.087635029481799679
46georgeMaksour0.96402974139141551.02734314202176450.848708904528994379
47LinearThinking0.96639553024173610.91041341805641131.068362948865006479
48geoff_c0.97884595406606310.99227098964735650.954393210685849879
49MessiSuccessi0.9805654852484330.97935784532257110.98276511511339679
50Engerland1.01297487799266061.01951255286466381.001066970190083479
51sandrock1.15315455149985851.17431717983730221.114608335599514479
52Very_Random1.2710204614337281.26513256187782371.281744849910553379
53Timeseries1.65944322122350331.7367858217513171.518569198833556679
54Overconfident_Tipster1.70136436946291571.54653453913633391.983375846129189579
55beastars1.90447054774349671.85624634310339931.992307491909387579

The 2021 Euro and Copa America Datathon will see entrants provided with a bespoke set of historic soccer form and Betfair pricing data covering major international tournaments dating back to 2014 as well as a selection of relevant international friendly matches. 

The goal from there is to use the provided data (or any other data) to build your own model to predict the outcome of every possible match-up in both the Euro and the Copa America.

How you go about building the model is entirely up to you – do you want to build an Elo model, a regression-based model, a Machine Learning algorithm, or something entirely different? Get as innovative with it as you want! 

Your set of predictions will be due before the two tournaments kick off – all submissions must be emailed to datathon@betfair.com.au before 11:59 pm AEST Friday, June 11th, 2021. 

See the Submissions & Judging tab as well as the Terms and Conditions for full competition rules. 

Please name submission files using the following formatting: 

  • {model_name}_submission_file_euro.csv; and
  • {model_name}_submission_file_copa_america.csv

To submit your model entry, please send it through to datathon@betfair.com.au.

The Datathon will be judged using the log loss method (cross entropy). The winner will be the Competition Entrant with the lowest mean (average) log loss over all matches that actually take place throughout the two tournaments (51 in the Euro and 28 in the Copa America). 

Two submission file templates will be provided to Competition Entrants along with the data sets upon registration – one for each of the Euro and the Copa America. Submissions must follow the template set out in the two submission file templates provided and must be submitted in a csv format. 

For the group stage of each tournament, Competition Entrants will be required to submit probabilities of a win, draw or loss for a given team in each scheduled match (36 for the Euro, 20 for the Copa America).

Additionally, Competition Entrants will be required to submit probabilities of a win or loss (no draws) for a given team in every possible match-up that could occur within the knockout stages of each tournament (i.e. the 276 possible combinations of teams who could play off head-to-head in the Euro knockout stages and the 45 combinations of teams who could play off in the Copa America knockout stages).


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