EXPERT RACING TIPS: BELMONT

You’ll find expert tips from Belmont racing right here on the Betfair Hub. Selections, form comment and betting tips on Belmont racing are brought to you by Betfair’s WA form analyst Terry Leighton. Who is our expert betting on this week? Tips and preview for the next meeting are online now.

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BELMONT RACING TIPS | TERRY LEIGHTON’S OVERVIEW

Once again, we are being told the weather should be coming this weekend, but after last week’s performance (where was the rain?) we shouldn’t be too expectant of the Bureau.

Big lanes are forming at Belmont (as we saw on Wednesday) so very few early suggested bets (and no prices) from me, with betting on the day the order of business at the moment. Information is power.


BELMONT RACING TIPS | SATURDAY 18 JUNE 2022

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 2 | #8 Reliable Star

A replay watcher’s delight, this daughter of Reliable Man has been completely luckless in unsuitable races (dominated from the front) both first and second up and now steps up to her preferred staying trip.

Every time she’s stepped out beyond 2000m, she’s gone huge, and there are no real fear horses here.

She gets in on the minimum, she swims, we get the man of the moment, CJP in the saddle and – most importantly – she’s the best horse in this. There isn’t a box she doesn’t tick.


Race 1 | Belmont | Terry Leighton’s Selections

1. Rumour Says
7. Work In Progress
8. Feels Playful
4. Deetea

The Rumours Says it was good and the rumours be correct. Luke Kyle has dropped another highly impressive two-year-old on us making a well regarded Revitup look ordinary. While she draws sticky here, she looks to have good tactical speed and should find the breeze at worst. Very hard to run down.

She does look like she’ll jump super thin and for that reason, on a rain effected surface, it might be worth a small speculation on Work In Progress. Danny Morton has been just as impressive as LK with this season’s juveniles and this filly looks to have her fair share of ability. If Rumour Says is paddling late, she’ll be the coming at her. Hard to have the rest.

BETTING STRATEGY

No Bet. 


Race 2 | Belmont | Terry Leighton’s Selections 

8. Reliable Star
3. Baramagic
2. Sluice Box
6. Gunnago

On a day with minimal pre-conceived ideas, Reliable Star is definitely an exception to that rule.

A replay watcher’s delight, this daughter of Reliable Man has been completely luckless in unsuitable races (dominated from the front) both first and second up and now steps up to her preferred staying trip.

Every time she’s stepped out beyond 2000m, she’s gone huge, and there are no real fear horses here.

She gets in on the minimum, she swims, we get the man of the moment, CJP in the saddle and – most importantly – she’s the best horse in this. There isn’t a box she doesn’t tick.

Baramagic appreciates the drop back to 70+ company (raced 6 points or 3kg’s out of his grade last time out) and will be allowed to roll to the front here. Bold Success is a quirky type of galloper, who will allow Baramagic to cross and then look to pop to his outside. The Taylor clan wouldn’t have been excited about drawing the inside marble, but he should be able to pop off without much fuss. Sluice Box is clearly going super and will appreciate the rise back to the staying journey and Shaun McGruddy back in the saddle. I very simply just think Reliable Star is a better horse than him. I’m even money – easily my best.

BETTING STRATEGY

BACK (WIN) – Reliable Star


Race 3 | Belmont | Terry Leighton’s Selections + Tips& Expert Tips

9. Glamour Packed
3. Arnie’s Boy
2. Snippy Miss
6. Overthought

Glamour Packed was stiff to land one off and not find any cover in a strong 60+ at her most recent. I really do think these Westspeed Platinum races are significantly inferior to your similarly rated standard events and she draws to get it nice and soft here. Doesn’t win out of turn but should go close.

Arnie’s Boy should get a near identical run to when he put them away (defeating Heart Of Coeur – huge last Saturday) two starts ago and the Pontiff returns to the saddle. No reason he doesn’t run a big race here.

Snippy Miss enjoys the wet and is as consistent as they come, while Overthought ran a cracker behind Billy Ain’t Silly first up last prep. Awkward draw and doesn’t win out of turn but could be one at a price if the wide part of the deck is winnable.

BETTING STRATEGY

No Bet. 


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Race 4 | Belmont | Terry Leighton’s Selections& Expert Tips

10. Knot Secret
1. Flying Missile
5. Hardly Ever
6. Colossal

Cracking little three year old dash here. I could make a case for the majority of this lot.

Colossal was as big a ‘be on me next start’ type of run as you’ll see. Was 1200 down to the unsuitable 1000, they walked, and he was held up for most of the straight. Will be hitting the line as hard as any here, but where does he map?

Hardly Ever got further back than they would have hoped in the Raconteur, but should be able to settle handier here you’d think. Going more than well enough to win this and another great opportunity for Tash Faithfull.

Flying Missile will appreciate the booking of Laqdar Ramoly and can work outside of My Marlaina in the breeze. Lots of weight, but lots of class too. Could be one who’s squeezed out late in the market.

Sniparoochy will be forced to take a sit here and due to that, I’ll be taking her on. That on it’s own is probably enough reason to have something on her here (I’ve been on her 3 of her last 5 – guess which 2 I wasn’t?).

Knot Secret has always had a bit of a spruik about him, but never quite put it all together. His recent trial was superb, giving an indication he might be starting to put it all together. Worth noting that was the first time any horse has beaten Bitofmerit home in a trial or race. Could be a very strong trial form reference.

BETTING STRATEGY

No Bet. 


Race 5 | Belmont | Terry Leighton’s Selections + Tips 

6. Galactic Storm
2. Stylax
16. Rocky Path
15. Nobellity

Galactic Storm has been a regular ‘lay’ in this column, with his reputation (in my humble opinion) exceeding his current level of ability. I do however (without the scars a lot of punters may bare), think he’s found his race against the older horses here.

Luckless behind Kaymay at his most recent, the 28 days between runs is a slight query – is that due to programming or was there a setback? Closely related to Superstorm, he should have no issue with the conditions and there looks to be plenty of (weak) speed in this, to set it up for a horse with a sit. Floods late.

Stylax looks the main danger. Simply racing like a new horse this preparation, he maps to have field advantage over Galactic Storm. Simply going too well to ignore and might just about win it on map.

If you’re looking for one out of the box and the heavens really do open up, Rocky Path can always run you a race. She requires a wet Belmont in a race with plenty of speed and she gets both of those here. Will be in the second half in running, but typically runs one of the fastest L200’s of the day. Will win one of these @ $30+.

BETTING STRATEGY

If they’re making ground, pretty keen on Galactic Storm. Stylax will have field position if not. Rocky Path if you’re after a blowout. The only three I’m considering.


Race 6 | Belmont | Terry Leighton’s Selections 

9. Startrade
6. Watch Me Dance
1. Dig Deep
5. Excellent Dream

Brilliant little 78+ event to kick start the quaddie and there are a few ways you could attack it.

Starting from the front, That’s Funny Az will lead and roll. He’s now with the Grant Williams yard and has been tuned up with a dominant trial win over the 1450m. Loves the wet going and leaders on a wet day can be awfully hard to catch when they’re in the zone. May just run them into the ground.

Excellent Dream and Watch Me Dance were near identical runs behind Otheroneson last time out. They look to be the mapped horses who can stalk TFA and OBH. Watch Me Dance has run some big races on wet decks in three year old features and you’d think if she wins another race, this must be close to it.

Startrade will be popular and rightly so. A newcomer to the form Morton yard, Danny and the team are still clearly figuring him out, but he’s laden with ability. Dropped in near the minimum, he’ll get a suck run a few pairs back the fence. If he handles the going, he’ll be awfully hard to hold out. With his best form on the firmer decks at Geraldton it is a genuine ‘if’.

Don’t discard Dig Deep. Should be on the back of a horse like Watch Me Dance and is a proven weight carrier. Was super in the WFA Belmont Sprint before there wasn’t a huge amount of intent shown in the straight in the Hyperion. Considering he wasn’t ridden an inch, I reckon he went to the line super (bias owner alert). Can run a race at a price.

I’ll take on All Day Session with the bar shoe on, up to 1400. Two variables which worry me.

Startrade on top for me, but if it does get really wet I might look around him and chase some value.

BETTING STRATEGY

No Bet. 


Race 7 | Belmont | Terry Leighton’s Selections

1. Devoted
3. Otheroneson
2. Rokanori
6. Searchin’ Roc’s

Are you #TeamDevoted or #TeamOtheroneson? The battle lines have been drawn.

This is a cracking showdown in a 125k race, before we may well see these same two horses do battle in a $1.5 million race later this year (or even three of them #pinnacles).

I am a little worried however that the lack of speed in this, could deter from the spectacle. I felt Searchin Roc’s might be the one to roll forward, but David Harrison has poured cold water on that. Will the Pearce’s instruct Lucy to roll forward on Black Fantasy or will a horse like Rokanori go back to the blueprint for his first few wins when he lead and dictated? There is good scope for someone to take the bull by the horns and assume that role.

I’m #TeamDevoted. Since he’s gone to Mickey G he’s looked like a different horse and he gives me Western Empire type vibes when he returned for his Railway prep. He’s got the tactical speed, he settles well (which may be crucial if they walk) and he has a sharp turn of acceleration (again, key if they walk). He’s on top for me…. Just.

Absolutely no knock on Otheroneson, who was huge at his last outing. Had no right to win with the run he had and should get an easier time of it here. Devoted looks a little more mature and it’ll be interesting to see if that plays a part in what could be a very tactically run affair.

I’m $2.50 Devoted. It’s not a race I’ll be diving into with any real confidence, but as long as I see $3+ I’m happy making him a reasonable result.

BETTING STRATEGY

BACK (WIN) – Devoted


Race 8 | Belmont | Terry Leighton’s Selections

2. Billy Ray
5. No Apology
4. Fangio
9. National Guard

Billy Ray keeps on raising the bar and you’d be brave to bet against him here. Interestingly for a cerise and white runner has gone around at an inflated price at his last two, with some mental scars perhaps still present from his early career failures (at the very shorts). Has to lift that bar again here with more weight and the rise to the mile, but really should be in the finish again.

No Apology looks ready to win. Lands on the back of the speed and was super behind Otheroneson (form may look very good 35 minutes prior) a fortnight ago. Enoys a wet Belmont Park and looks a standout alongside Billy Ray.

With the speed in this a bunched finish is some type of possibility with the likes of National Guard and Fangio more than capable of rattling home late. Could be squeezed out in a 100% Betfair market to something mad. We’ll assess the day before pulling any triggers.

BETTING STRATEGY

No Bet. 


Race 9 | Belmont | Terry Leighton’s Selections

7. Dia De La Raza
2. Material Witness
6. Ay Tee Emm
9. Forest War

Plenty of speed in this 1000m scamper to end a (probable) wet and windy day.

If that rain does hit as predicted, I’ll look a little left of centre and have a little spec on a fresh Dia De La Raza. We don’t have too many real wet track specialists here in the West, but his record of 1 win from 38 on the dry, compared to his 7 from 19 on the wet is too big a differential to ignore. Grows a leg in the slop. In a race I’ve got no real conviction in, we’ll have something on. From a map POV I don’t expect him to get a spot in running, but leading up the 3 wide line, late on a wet day at Belmont may almost be the best spot to be. It’s been a while since he’s raced, but I’m going to presume he’s been saved for these exact conditions and he’ll go around @ $30+.

My general rule with Nowhiteflag is that we won’t back him unless we are confident he’ll find the fence and I’m not here. Beads was a good winner last start, but it’s a different kettle of fish against the older horses on a bog track while Sneaky Chance is going to the well again and maps to get every conceivable, but for a three-year-old filly, has she had enough this time in? Happy to look around the market elects on a quagmire.

Material Witness was big behind Eeyore Wayz at his most recent and will be hoping for a mess out in front (always hard to win from near last over 1000m). I’ve (loosely) marked him a $6 equal favourite with a fair few of these. At the ~$10 or so, he’s worth another worth a spec.

BETTING STRATEGY

BACK (WIN) – Dia De La Raza

BACK (WIN) – Material Witness


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