Australian Guineas

04/03/22

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Racing tips and betting strategy for the Group 1 Australian Guineas are online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, racing tips & betting strategy for the Australian Guineas at Flemington are provided by Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments. The full preview is online now.

Click here to head to the Australian Guineas market on the Betfair Exchange.

Fine weather forecast for Thursday & Friday, but then 20mm-35mm forecast for Saturday. The Flemington track is the best in Australia and these days never seems to get too firm or too wet. Usually races fairly, regardless of the conditions.

Won in recent years by quality 3yos including Mosheen, Shamus Award, Palentino, Hey Doc, Grunt & Alligator Blood.

SPEED MAP AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS

Fair bit of speed engaged here with Pascero, Rhinoceros, Zerelle and Maurices Medad all pushing forward, whilst Lightsaber and Profondo won’t be far away.

Pinstriped, Hitotsu, Captivant, Ranch Hand & Bons A Pearla will settle midfield.

Corona Lad, Sharp Response, Alegron, Forgot You, Prix De Turn & Spirit Of Gaylard get a long way back, which makes it tough in this race historically.

KEY RUNNERS

1. Hitotsu

Ran fifth in the Caulfield Guineas last prep before destroying them in the VRC Derby when heavily backed. No horse has won this race first up in the past decade, though no horse has tried, and no horse had won the VRC Derby 3rd up off a mile run previously either, so the horse & trainer can break history. Well found in the market.

2. Captivant

Settled back and ran home well for 3rd last start in the CS Hayes +4.8 last 600m the 3rd quickest of the day. Ran 2nd beaten 0.5L in the Caulfield Guineas last prep. Strong chance on a dry track, but isn’t ideal if it’s too wet.

3. Profondo

Won on debut, then 2nd in the Gloaming before a dominant 2L win in the G1 Spring Champion at 3rd start. Has been trialling well. Quality horse but this is a big task first up and surprised he is favourite.

4. Forgot You

Won the G2 Stutt Stakes last prep, then 6th beaten 3L in the Caulfield Guineas before winning the G2 Moonee Valley Vase. Was strongest on the line when got back and flew home for 4th in the CS Hayes first up beaten 3L. Ran +4.9 the last 600m which was the 2nd quickest of the day.

7. Lightsaber

Won the G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude last prep before a solid 4th in the Caulfield Guineas. Ran 4th first up behind Marabi then forget last start when missed the start. Maps well.

8. Ranch Hand

Has been solid in both runs this prep, but whether he runs a strong mile is a query.

9. Pinstriped

Done nothing wrong in career to date with 3 wins from 3 starts. Won the key leadup CS Hayes in impressive fashion last start. Unfashionable trainer/jockey combo for a G1.

15. Pascero

Won first two starts then led and a good 2nd in the CS Hayes. Not out of it on map and historical runs.

16. Bon’s A Pearla

Only filly in the race. Won the G2 Thousand Guineas Prelude for us at 30/1 last prep. Had no luck first up and hit the line well, then held up and not on the right part of the track second up. Has the ability to figure here at odds.

17. Maurice’s Medad

Has run well in both starts this prep, just behind the stars, hitting the line solidly. Can place at odds.

SUMMARY

Tricky race.

Captivant rates on top if the track is dry enough.

Pinstriped has done nothing wrong.

Forgot You can win if he doesn’t get too far back.

Bon’s A Pearla the best roughie, worth a place spec.

Hitotsu can figure but is under the odds currently, and Profondo looks a false favourite.