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ASCOT RACING TIPS | SATURDAY 7 MAY 2022
Rail Position: +12m | Track Condition: Good 4
The last Ascot meeting of the season looks set to be dominated by the David Shortte’s, with a little run of favourites from races 2 to 5 providing a nice little all up opportunity. For those who whack their multi’s on the slimy corporates and let them take their big percentages (for each leg), it’d be worth considering how much coin you’re actually costing yourself by not manually multi-ing them on the Exchange. While it may require some fortitude to place that final leg, with the entirety rolling over, I often wonder why you’d put that final leg on if you weren’t willing to let it ride (don’t get me started on those who use the cash out function). Gee whizz. Unnecessary rant is now over.
Interesting to note young Taj Dyson has 7 rides on the program. While it’s been a fairly slow start to his career, he’s really beginning to find his way in the saddle winning on 8 of his last 27 and 6 of his last 13 under 10 bucks (none being sub even money – i.e. no gifts). While I’m not diving into any of his (price dependant) with any huge confidence on this program, it is worth booking a ticket on the bandwagon before they’re all sold out.
Finally – I’m looking forward to the return to Belmont Park next week. While it’s been a good Ascot season, the dwindling field sizes aren’t give us value punters the meat we want to chew on. Looking forward to some full books at the glorious tin shed.
BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 6 | #1 Double Spice
Consistent galloper that keeps producing superior figures this preparation than any other runner int eh race, draws to get a soft run in behind the pace from barrier 5 and will appreciate getting out to 2600m.
Race 1 | Ascot Racing Tips | Key Runners
5. Safety Bay
6. Bread To Flirt
3. Premium Choice
There is finally a few points of difference in the final Westspeed Platinum Handicap of the Ascot season, with Safety Bay ($4.30) and Bread To Flirt ($4.70) making their return to racing.
Safety Bay has been a revelation since she dropped to a 50 rater and looked destined for the dirt. Since her run on the 18th of March 2021 her record reads 10:3-2-2, while prior it was 19-1-0-3. She’s a different animal. What’s probably more impressive are the names alongside her – seconds to Billy Ain’t Silly & Fiery Bay (who was low flying at the time) and wins over Stellar Vistar (when deep the trip) & Ginger Flyer (went on to win her next two). She’s produced without a trial here, though did beat Buzzoom in her pre-campaign trial last time out. Likely to be ready to go fresh.
Bread To Flirt has a few tricks, but was a moral beaten behind Queen Of Soul first up last campaign. Really liked her trial. Premium Choice ($4.70) hasn’t had a huge amount of luck and looks suited back to 1000m in a race with some tempo, but he continues to go around on the short side? I’ll lose no sleep if he beats me at sub $3.
Race 2 | Ascot Racing Tips | Key Runners
6. Lexington City
2. Via Monte
4. Magic To Exceed
Pretty keen on Lexington City ($2) to kick off a big run for favourite backers.
Over the 1000m, he should be able to dictate from the top and it’s so hard to get past an in form, quick horse who gets that type of map early at Ascot. Demolished Born To Talk (won very softly soon after) before only being run down by Sneaky Chance late. Metallon and subsequent winner Hardly Ever were in behind him. He’ll be in front for a long way.
Via Monte ($6.10) will chase hard from the inside alley, while there is a real unknown X factor about Tadweer ($5.80). Watch the market with him.
Keen on the leader over the short-course to kick off our ~$15 all-up (my price around $8).
BACK (WIN) — Lexington City
Race 3 | Ascot Racing Tips | Key Runners
4. Tiffany Street
6. Miss Drakova
2. Lord Gannicus
6. Rockon Molly
Tiffany Street ($1.7) absolutely walloped them last first up, with the second horse (Demolish) the run of the race at his next outing. It was absolute panels back to third. Chris Parnham should be able to land in a forward position again and it’ll take a serious performance from a debutant or a ride and a half on Miss Drakova ($8, and even then she’ll need to improve on the first up performance) from the sticky alley. As a punter, there is a lot of trust in the Morton yard at the moment.
Lord Gannicus ($8.50) looks the debutant with the most scope. There looks to have been a little bit of early money for the Universal Ruler colt, with both of his trials looking fairly mature. It is worth noting that his most recent trial was a month ago and that the horse he beat home only went so-so at his subsequent trial.
Very keen on Tiffany Street as leg #2.
BACK (WIN) — Tiffany Street
Race 4 | Ascot Racing Tips | Key Runners
7. Wakan Tanka
1. Charleton Eddie
6. Stella Fair
Sniparoochy ($1.52) made an absolute mess of them a fortnight ago and it should be the same story here. After gliding to the breeze (they had been trying to teach her to sit), she dropped another gear on straightening running the quickest final 200m of the event. Quite incredible considering the reasonable tempo she went along at without cover. There are no Harmika’s here, while Speed Dream, Dunbar, Testing Love & Scorpion Stormz have all come out to give that form a little cherry. Expecting her to work across and breeze outside of Stella Fair ($15), with Wakan Tanka ($9) content to park on them. If she repeats (or is within 3 lengths) that effort and runs out a strong 1400m (which it’s hard to see her not doing off her last outing) she’ll be winning.
Loyal Wakan Tanka supporters (sad bunch) were rewarded at his most recent outing with a dominate win. He’s clearly in career best form and finds lengths for Laqdar Ramoly. If a different Sniparoochy to a fortnight ago turns up, I suspect he’ll be the one taking advantage.
While I don’t like supporting one purely on the basis of one good run, we need to remember just how good and exciting (and luckless) a 2yo she was. The talent has always been there and if she can get some continuity and put it all together, she could well string 5 or 6 together. Sniparoochy = leg #3.
BACK (WIN) — Sniparoochy
Race 5 | Ascot Racing Tips | Key Runners
5. Written Matter
If our little foray with the manual all-up is alive coming to the last leg, then we can start to get a bit excited.
It’sarayday ($1.66) is a star. He made The Front Bar look second rate on debut, before only bad luck (deep the trip) cost him the Belgravia behind the very smart filly Searchin’ Roc’s. Simon Miller always had public reservations about whether the mile would be up his alley at that stage of his career, so he lost absolutely no admirers with his effort in the WA Guineas. He’s been tuned up for his return to racing with a soft trial behind the Group One placed Indian Pacific and maps to enjoy a run right behind a reasonable pair of leaders. There isn’t a box this bloke doesn’t tick.
While Liwa ($12) and Written Matter ($11) are clearly the next best two in this, I do think Reflectivity ($9.5) could be the one suited from a speed map POV. With Ziebell likely rolling along out in front, this bloke who improved sharply second up, should be able to stalk him, or pop to the breeze and the addition of Laqdar Ramoly cannot be understated. He’s $2.30 in my place market, so the $3.5-4 at the time of writing for him to fill a hole is where the value currently sits. In an 8 horse field (where I’m pretty happy putting a line through the bottom three) I’m happy to speculate on him using the map to his advantage and filling a spot in behind It’sarayday.
It’sarayday is leg #4, but if we aren’t alive (highly unlikely) and the price doesn’t dictate a bet (very likely), I’m happy changing course to a Reflectivity place investment.
BACK (WIN) — It’sarayday
BACK (PLACE) — Reflectivity
Race 6 | Ascot Racing Tips | Key Runners
1. Double Spice
4. First Law
8. Critical Altitude
3. Warm N Fuzzy
Opinion will be well and truly divided in the opening leg of the quadrella, but it’s Double Spice ($4.20) who has simply grown a leg since moving to the Dellar yard, who appeals as the winner/value to me.
In his five outings for Neil Dellar he’s only been defeated twice and on both occasions inexperienced apprentices were on board. His only foray to the big sticks with Dellar was a heavily supported success when beating Cristal Dane (won her next two) without much luck in running. He’s been produced off these little breaks in the past and maps to stalk two very strong leaders in Warm N Fuzzy ($7) and Critical Altitude ($7) who should take him a long way down the straight. While the 60kg’s is a reasonable impost, he is a proven weight carrier. Keen to get involved.
First Law ($6.6) has trialled the house down for the Gangemi’s who are currently experiencing a little lean trot. When it rains, it does pour for that stable so perhaps Friday Knight on Thursday @ Pinjarra can get the ball rolling for the likeable lads and their powerful ownership group.
Pretty keen on the mapped visitor to get the chocolates.
BACK (WIN) — Double Spice
Race 7 | Ascot Racing | Key Runners
8. Roman Flirt
2. Sentimental Queen
5. Chuck A Luck
Sentimental Queen ($3.6) could not have been any more impressive in winning the Diggers Cup on Anzac Day, but this is a completely different assignment here. She’ll rises 2.5kg’s, is up to the 2200m and will likely have to breeze outside of Chuck A Luck ($7.5) from the awkward alley. She’s definitely got the class to overcome that and win, but it’s a proper test for her. Still think her best trip is the 1400-1800m range.
Marocchino ($5.30) lead them up at a strong tempo in the Diggers off a 5 week break. Was entitled to get tired. Gets cover here and is proven at the trip. Closes the margin on the Queen.
Tena Koutou ($7.50) was handed the Albany Cup to some degree. He’s clearly the one most suited to the rise to 2200m, but does he have the class of a few of these? Think there is very little between him and Chuck A Luck, who may well be suited to the little freshen up between runs (won the Mornington Guineas off a 3 week break). One’s $3.50, the other $10+.
Roman Flirt ($9.50) is on the fifth line in my book, but I’m expecting her to represent the most value come jump. I actually really liked the final 100m of her effort in the Diggers and she is a very one dimensional animal who is far better suited to racing just behind the speed and sustaining a run. I’ve map her following Sentimental Queen in the one-one, and I expect she can run a race at an ever increasing quote. Worth a throw at the stumps if getting out to the price I expect she might.
Race 8 | Ascot Racing | Key Runners
2. General Grant
11. Frequent Friar
Focussing on the three main chances here with Hezapro ($4), Aragain ($4.8) and General Grant ($4.8).
Magic Mike Santich’s little team is flying at the minute with Hezapro leading the charge. The query for most will be whether he can turn that 1800m form into proper staying form over the 2200m. His previous efforts over the 2000+ have been only fair, but he’s never attacked that trip when he’s been in this type of form. The 54.5kg’s looks a luxury weight with Laqdar in the saddle (won his last 2 aboard him) giving him every hope to see out the trip.
Aragain is with his 92nd trainer, but is racing just as well for Brian Kersley as he has at any stage of his career. We know she can get a journey, but she is 0 from 7 at the 2200, 0 from 15 @ Ascot and only 4 from 37 overall. Trust isn’t high, but this is a suitable assignment.
General Grant screamed stayer with his fast finishing effort in a hard run 1800m behind Buster Bash. Those who can find the line like he did, in such a slog of a race tend to make good stayers. The two concerns for him are lumping the 60kg’s and that inside alley. He tends to need a fair bit of reminding in his races to stay on and isn’t the type who can be chopped out and pick up and sprint again – he needs momentum to sustain his run.
Confident the winner comes from those 3.
Race 9 | Ascot Racing | Key Runners
9. Special View
7. Piccola Signora
I really like betting into races that have a fairly definitive speed map as this one does, but I’ve basically just found the market.
The entirety of WA was on Special View ($4.70) last time out, when he was just found wanting late. With the significant weight drop, another soft map and the added fitness there will be a lot following up.
Kaymay ($4.30) cops the raw end of a negative weight swing against Special View (3.5kg’s), but what does off-set that, is the fact she should be able to find his back. He should be taking her a long way into the straight, which could be telling late.
Majinika ($6.1) clearly has the best form coming into this but will provide a proper challenge to the ever improving Dyson. Is making a mess of his starts, but can muster up to three back the fence and follow a fairly strong ‘fence line’. If Dyson pulls the right rein at the right moment, he has to be hard to hold out.
Downforce ($11) loses Laqdar, and while Chris Parnham is definitely not a downgrade, he has got along exceedingly well with Lucky. From the gate likely ends up back near last and has to contend with a 5kg weight swing against Majinika for a very similar run. Think he’s under the odds currently.
Piccola Signora ($7.60), Eurasia ($12), Lonehand Larry ($18 – ridden quieter, forget he went round) and even Great Powers ($31) all are some hope in a wide open finish to the Ascot season. As long as the rail is playing well, I think I’ll be focussing on those mapped runners.