Best Bets
Melbourne City V Perth Glory
The last game of the weekend and home side Melbourne City have won the first half in 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Perth Glory have conceded first in 10/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Melbourne City have won 11/18 home matches. It’s very hard to go against 10/10 stats and whatever the outcome of this one, we can expect plenty of goals.
The past six meetings saw a total of 25 goals with scores of 2-4, 2-1, 4-2, 4-0, 0-2 and 2-2. So after that draw six games back, we have three Melbourne wins, sandwiched between two Perth wins. In the past 15 Head to Head we see 10/15 went Over 2.5 goals, 8/15 saw both teams score, 11/15 have a first half goal and 12/15 have a second half goal.
The price for the Over 2.5 goals should be about $1.65 and I suspect Betfair will have it closer to $1.45 due to the away game scores of Perth. Before the two recent away matches, ending 1-2 and 0-1, we saw 3-3, 2-2, 2-1, 2-4, 2-2, 2-3, and 1-2 results. Looking at that, the market would be nailing their colours to the Over 2.5 market.
However, home results for City of 0-0, 7-0, 1-0, 0-0 and 1-0 make me think differently. When we think City are at home, and will be the more dominant, you would be smarter putting more weight on their outcomes compared to Perth. If we were to do that, then the game is certainly an under play. Only 5/11 home games went over for City this season, but 9/11 for Perth, plus the fact they have nothing at all to play for, makes me cautious.
We can play the goals market here, but let’s jump up to the Over 3.5 and give us the extra cushion. We would be very happy with just the one, or even no goal in the first half. Three of the past four Melbourne City home games were 0-0 at half time. Let’s hope it becomes four from five.
It is a worry that the past four meetings were 2-4, 2-1, 4-2 and 4-0, but the only other play I could make here, would be to back City/City in the HT/FT market. I will stay with the goals as the past four half time scores between the sides were 1-1 (three times) and 0-0 and the one before that was 1-0.
Betting Strategy
LAY: Over 3.5 for 1 unit $ 2.20 or lower.
A-League 2024
The A League is Australia’s premier Men’s football competition, running since 2005. In recent seasons the competition has expanded to 12 teams with Western United winning the premiership last season in just their third year in the competition.
Betfair is the only betting agency to follow for the best and most accurate information and data, including A League tips, on the A League competition. As Australia’s largest betting exchange, Betfair is the leader when it comes to offering punters statistical analysis and observations that can help identify value-for-money considerations, including A League tips, historical data and the best back and lay bets for various categories in each game.
The first edition of the A League competition, which is run by the FFA, was played in the 2005-06 summer. Seven of the original teams remain in the competition: Melbourne Victory, Adelaide United, Brisbane Roar, Sydney FC, Newcastle Jets, Central Coast Mariners and Perth Glory. In the years since they’ve been joined by Melbourne City (formerly Melbourne Heart), Western United, Wellington Phoenix, Macarthur FC and the Western Sydney Wanderers.
Eight different teams have won the competition in the 17 year history, with Sydney FC claiming the most titles with five, ahead of Melbourne Victory with four and the Brisbane Roar who won the competition three times in four seasons from 2011-2014. Several of the competition’s biggest names recently took part in Australia’s bold 2022 World Cup campaign.
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A League football attracts big name local talent and a host of international imports, with the recent World Cup success casting the spotlight on the domestic competition. With the matches taking place in two countries, most capital cities and several regional centers, that interest is only likely to grow. Punters who enjoy the unpredictable nature of live sport can follow Betfair’s in-play betting options, which provide enticing value for spontaneous and unpredictable sports like football.
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