Hawthorn v Sydney

Friday  11th May, 7:50pm EST – MCG

Hawthorn

The Hawks are coming into this game sitting pretty on a 5-2 record in 4th position after having downed the Bombers in Round 7. There has been a lot to like about the Hawks so far, including their ability to pick out free targets and move the ball effectively up the field and their relatively high efficiency in front of goal in a season where most teams have been wasteful. They will be facing their archrivals tonight in what will surely be a scrappy tightly contested game where goals will be hard to come by, aided by the forecast weather conditions. Given this, clearances will be even more important in this game and the likes of McEvoy and Mitchell will need to combine to jam the ball into their forward 50 and let their roving forwards pick up some scrappy goals as marks will likely be hard to come by. The Hawks have had the upper hand against the Swans recently winning 4 of the past 5.

Sydney

The Swans will be looking to get themselves back into the winner’s circle after losing by 2 points in a tight game against the Kangaroos. Despite entering that game as significant favourites, they were on the back foot for most of the game and despite having some patches of ascendancy, they were unable to convert that on the scoreboard. They will need a significant lift in their work-rate if they are to bounce back and win against the Hawks but what history has told us is that these two teams always seem to find their best footy when they face each other. Captain and clearance machine Josh Kennedy will be pivotal in this game and he will need to find his best in what has been a relatively quiet season for him so far. Playing the Hawks at the MCG is always a tough ask but these circumstances may actually not be so bad for the Swans given their home/away record thus far and the forecast weather conditions which should dull the impact of the crowd.

Betting Strategy

In what will surely be a competitive game, we see the Hawks with the upper hand and still find value in them at current odds of $1.73.

Back on Betfair BACK – Hawthorn


GWS V West Coast

Saturday 12th May, 1:35pm EST – Spotless Stadium

GWS

The Giants had one of their worst games in recent memory last week where they got slaughtered by the Cats in a one-sided affair. Even though they came into the game with a star-studded list of injuries that included 5 of their top 10 best and fairest, it was no excuse for their lack of effort and hunger around the ball. They face the in-form eagles this round and although will get Cameron and Lobb back, they will still be far from their best 22. Their biggest challenge will be keeping the Eagles’ forwards quiet with the likes of Kennedy, Darling and Lecras able to score with relative ease against previous opponents. Given the amount of criticism they have received in recent weeks, the Giants will be eager to prove their doubters wrong and downing the red-hot Eagles at Spotless will be their perfect opportunity to do so. They have had the better of the Eagles’ in recent history and have won the last 3 but lost the 2 prior to that.

West Coast

The Eagles are coming into this game on a 6-game winning streak sitting comfortably in 2nd position on the ladder. In a season where most thought they would struggle in the midfield, they have defied their critics and proven that they will be contenders come September. However, this game against the Giants will probably be their toughest test so far as they will need to show they can still be competitive without their two best and probably most important players Naitanui and Shuey who will be missing this game due to a suspension and injury respectively. They will have to concede that they won’t get the dominant taps that they have enjoyed thus far and will need to find a way to pin the ball in their forward 50 and let what has become one of the most effective forward lines in the competition do their job.

Betting Strategy

With the loss of the Eagles two best players, the model sees the Giants despite their own injury issues winning this one reasonably comfortably and sees the current odds of $1.58 as value.

Back on Betfair  BACK – GWS


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