North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Saturday 28th April, 2:10pm EST – Etihad Stadium

North Melbourne

The Roos have had a good start to the season sitting on a record of 3-2 after downing the in-form Hawks in Round 5. Despite being moderate underdogs at the start of the match, they controlled the Hawks throughout the game and were up by as much as 57 points at one stage. The loss of Higgins who has been among their best will be a challenge for them and the likes of Cunnington, Dumont and Hartung will have to continue their impressive form to cover his absence. Expect the Power’s Tom Jonas to play on Ben Brown with the last time these two duelling, Brown arguably getting the upper hand despite the Roos copping a 70-point thrashing. If they are to win, they’ll need to get the ball into his reliable hands with the key forward finding it hard to miss having kicked 19.4 thus far.

Port Adelaide

Despite the model having high hopes for the Power pre-season, they’ve been a bit lacklustre as of late dropping their last two in games where they were favourites. The loss of big man Ryder in Round 1 has exposed a big weakness in their line-up with the combination of Howard and Dixon/Westhoff proving ineffective in covering the Ruck thus far. They will need to find a way to win the ball despite this as they will be at a significant disadvantage against the Roos in this area with Goldstein coming into the game in good form. If they can get some quick ball movement into their half, they have the capability to score quickly with what is still one of the best forward lines in the competition. History is on their side with the Power having won the last 3 against the Roos.

Betting Strategy

The model sees current odds of $2.44 being offered on North Melbourne as good value with it seeing Port as slight favourites at Etihad.

BACK – North Melbourne


Fremantle v West Coast

Sunday 29rd April, 4:40pm EST – Optus Stadium

Fremantle

The Dockers have shown they are a much-improved side from last year with their midfield led by superstar Fyfe proving far more effective than they were last season. The performances from their top rookies Cerra and Brayshaw have shown that they will be future stars of the club and will only get better as they acquire more match experience. We see the Dockers holding the advantage in the midfield and for them to win, they will need to use this to provide some clean inside 50 ball movement to their forwards as they will be coming up against what is probably the best intercept marking defense in the competition. Sandilands is unlikely to be able to win the ruck battle with Naitanui and will need to take advantage of his opportunities when Naitanui is on the bench with the Eagles superstar still not playing to his maximum game-time potential.

West Coast

The Eagles have had one of their best starts to the season and are coming off a 10-point victory over the Blues in Round 5 in what should have been a bigger margin with the Eagles registering 10 more scoring shots. Despite looking like they were going to struggle in the midfield with two of their superstars in Sam Mitchell and Matt Priddis retiring last season, they have not looked troubled so far with Sheed and Masten playing some of their best footy of their career. Josh Kennedy will be key in this game with the Dockers finding it hard to contain him in the past, with the Eagles spearhead booting a combined 16 goals the last 3 times these two teams played. History is on their side with the Eagles having won the last 5 Western derbies.

Betting Strategy

The model sees the Eagles taking out the first Western Derby at Optus stadium and sees current odds of $1.69 on the Eagles as good value.

 BACK – West Coast


Related Articles

AFL Season 2018 – Round 5 Analysis

"In a game that’s hard to split on paper, we have the home ground advantage of the Lions being ...

Read More

AFL Season 2018 – Round 4 Analysis

Quant Sports use their dual model system (player model + team model) to find overpriced betting opportunities for round ...

Read More

AFL Season 2018 – Round 3 Analysis

Quant Sports use their dual model system (player model + team model) to find overpriced betting opportunities for round ...

Read More