Sydney v Adelaide

Friday 20th April, 7:50pm EST – SCG

Sydney

The Swans are coming into this game sitting pretty on a 3-1 record, their only blemish being a loss to the Power at home in round two. However, having said this, they were lucky against the dogs last week which could have easily been a loss in a game that was decided in the last three minutes. Franklin has been in red hot form booting 17 goals so far and if the Crows can’t contain him, this could be another big night for him. With their midfield coming into this game virtually unscathed, they will be looking to take advantage of a depleted Crows midfield and deliver plenty of ball to their forwards. Sinclair will have a tough job going against Jacobs in the ruck, but he has been in good form this season and should be able to hold his own. History is on their side with the Swans having won four out of the last five against the Crows.

Adelaide

The Crows injury woes keep getting worse with Sloane and Betts joining a list this week that already includes Brodie Smith and the Crouch brothers. Despite Sloane and Matt Crouch not playing this week, the Crows still have some quality in the midfield with Bryce Gibbs, Rory Atkins and Richard Douglas rated highly by the model. If Jacobs can win the ruck duel, the battle in the centre may not be as one-sided as most would think. The Crows’ strength still lies in their forward line, and captain Tex will need to lift if his team are going to get up this week after what was a pretty poor showing from him last week. The loss of Betts gives the Sydney defenders one less thing to worry about but they will still have their hands full with the likes of Tex, McGovern, Lynch and Jenkins all capable of taking strong contested marks.

Betting Strategy

Our model agrees that the Swans should be favourites. However, according to the numbers, the odds of $4.2 on the Crows represents value and the handicap of +26.5 too high.

BACK – Adelaide +26.5


Brisbane v Gold Coast

Sunday 22nd April, 4:40pm EST – The Gabba

Brisbane

The Lions are one of two teams with a doughnut in the win column. However, aside from last week’s capitulation against the reigning premiers where they only managed two goals, they have looked competitive and hungry to win. Unfortunately, with such a young list, they are a confidence team and if they don’t start well, they will tend to panic and make questionable decisions which was clear from the amount of turnovers in last week’s game. They will find a much easier match-up this week against the Suns where there isn’t much splitting these sides in terms of line-ups. Our model gives the slightest of edges to the Lions and for them to win, they will need to execute some brave smart footy like they showed in the first 3 rounds. Look for Zorko to dominate the midfield in a game where we have him as clearly the best player on-field.

Gold Coast

The Suns are coming into this game off the back of a slaughter in Perth at the hands of the West Coast Eagles where they lost by 80. Like the Lions, the Suns have a young list which has provided for some creative and exciting footy at times but at others, has shown them capable of succumbing to panic and disarray. The battle in the mid between Lyons and Zorko should be an interesting duel and we feel that these two will be key in getting some early confidence for their teams. For the Suns to win, they will need to get the ball into the hands of their captain Lynch, who should have an advantage over the Lions’ defense.

Betting Strategy

In a game that’s hard to split on paper, we have the home ground advantage of the Lions being the key difference and see odds of $1.84 as value.

 BACK – Brisbane


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