Hawthorn v Melbourne

Sunday 15th April, 3:20pm AEST – MCG


The Hawks suffered their first defeat of the season last week to the reigning premiers in a game where the scoreboard flattered them. They were down by 33 points going into the 4th quarter when the Tigers took their foot off the pedal and let the Hawks get back into the game, however they were thoroughly beaten across the field. The Hawks come into this game close to full strength with Burgoyne being the only significant casualty on their list. Despite this, our model has them fielding a team inferior to the Demons in all areas except for their forward line. For the Hawks to win, ball magnet Mitchell will need to supply plenty of ball to the likes of Roughead, Gunston and Rioli.


The Demons so far this season have neither impressed nor disappointed us. All their games have been within points of what we’ve predicted the outcome to be with the exception of last week where the Roos capitulated against them in the second half. They have shown that they have the talent to make finals footy this year and we see them being able to dispatch of the Hawks more comfortably than the odds would suggest. Hogan will be key in this game to put the Demons on the scoreboard and if he can keep up his current good form, he should make things very difficult for the Hawks defense.


Betting Strategy

Our model gives a distinct advantage to the Demons with current odds on offer of $1.77 being value.

BACK – Melbourne

Geelong vs St. Kilda

Sunday 15th April, 4:40pm AEST – Kardinia Park


This is the first game of the season the Cats will be playing at their fortress Kardinia Park and they would have liked it to be under better circumstances. Unfortunately for them, they have been plagued with injuries and if this continues they may find themselves unable to even field a team of 22 players in the future. They will be coming into this game with 7 players who have less than 15 games experience which shows how badly their list has been affected. The big out is Ablett who suffered a hamstring injury last week which puts a big dent in their line-up. They come into this game as significant favourites against the inconsistent Saints which we can only attribute to the fact that the Saints have been playing some atrocious footy as of late. However, in saying that, the team match-up between these two are fairly close.

St. Kilda

The Saints have not looked good at all this season. Their inaccuracy in front of the sticks continues to haunt them and despite having some top talent on their list, they will never be taken seriously as long as they struggle to slot goals. For the Saints to win this game against an undermanned Cats team, Steven will be the key and will have to give the Saints some early confidence by providing early scoring opportunities or perhaps even kicking a goal himself. After some poor showings, they will be desperate to redeem themselves so motivation for the Saints should be high coming into this game.

Betting Strategy

Geelong at home are definitely favourites here but our model suggests the odds of $4.50 on the Saints are value. Take the +29.5 handicap if you want the safer option.

BACK – St. Kilda

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