Sydney v GWS

Saturday 7th April, 7:25pm AEST – SCG

Sydney

The Swans were surprised by the Power last week where despite dominating the first half, suffered a disappointing 23-point loss. In Round 3, the Swans will face archrivals the Giants which will be a great contest that will be won or lost in the midfield. If both teams were fielding their best 22, they would match up very evenly, but with some pretty significant injuries for the Giants, we are giving the edge to the Swans. The loss of Scully and Greene for the Giants could prove the difference and the return of Reid to the Swans’ forward-line should take some heat off Franklin which should let him boot a handful of goals. In addition, the Swans will have a slight home ground advantage at the SCG, so all signs are pointing to the red and white being able to take this out reasonably comfortably.

GWS

Despite beating the Pies last week, it was actually a lackluster performance from the Giants. The game was neck and neck until the final quarter and their usually dangerous forward line seemed struggle to score at times. They’ll need to tidy this up if they are a chance to win against the Swans as they will be facing one of the best defenses in the competition and the absence of superstar Toby Greene will make it that much harder for them. However, they will have history on their side, with the last 3 games between the two going the way of the Giants.

Betting Strategy

Our model gives the edge to the Swans in most areas and see $1.72+ as value.

BACK – Sydney


Melbourne vs North Melbourne

Saturday 7th April, 2:10pm EST – MCG

Melbourne

The Dees survived a last quarter scare by the Lions last week to eventually down them by 26. They are facing the Roos this week in what many are predicting to be an easy win for them but history has told us that these two teams often play tightly contested competitive games. The Dees will be coming into this game fielding a slightly weaker team (on paper) by choice with speedy Hunt and Pederson being dropped for Sam Frost and Dean Kent. We have the Dees as being superior in most areas, most noticeably in the midfield but not by as much as the odds are saying. The Ruck contest between Gawn and Goldstein should be an interesting contest of the old vs the new.

North Melbourne

The Roos are coming into Round 3 off the back of a thrashing of the Saints last week in what many predicted to go the other way. Although both teams were playing some truly horrendous football in the first half, the Roos did find some rhythm in the second and proved that they can be competitive despite most experts writing them off for the season. For the Roos to pull off another upset, Ben Brown will need to find the sticks with him being a key factor when the two teams have faced off previously.

Betting Strategy

Although the Dees are rightfully favourites, our model sees the odds on offer of $3.50 on the Roos as value.

 BACK – North Melbourne


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