Collingwood v GWS

Saturday 31st March, 4:35pm AEDT – MCG


In their first round against the Hawks, the Pies fell apart after the first quarter. They could barely hit a target and set shots in front of goal seemed an impossibility highlighting that their inconsistency that has plagued them in recent seasons has not gone away. They come into this week as pretty significant underdogs against the Giants who are coming off a big first round win. Although weaker in overall team skill, our model has the Pies actually matching up pretty well against the Giants which is also evident from the competitive games these two teams have had in the past, particularly their last two. Although being priced as significant underdogs in both their last two outtings, the Pies won by 27 in one of them and only lost by three in the other.


The Giants are coming off a round 1 thrashing of the Western Bulldogs by 82 points. They proved once again how dangerous their forward line is with Greene, Cameron and Patton racking up 12 goals between them. We are expecting that there will be minimal change to their line-up except for the addition of Tom Scully who is slated to make his return from a knee injury. The one thing going against the Giants here is that they don’t tend to play at the MCG very well having only won 1 game there in the past and we see the Pies home ground advantage playing a significant role in the outcome of this match.

Betting Strategy

Although we are tipping the Giants to win in a close affair, we see the odds on offer of $3.60 on the Pies as value. Take the handicap if you want the safer bet.

BACK – Collingwood

Fremantle vs Essendon

Saturday 31st March, 8:10pm AEDT – Optus Stadium


As expected the Dockers were outclassed by the Power last week, and although the scoreboard indicated that they were competitive in the first quarter, they never really looked likely to win. They will be facing another tough team in the Bombers in round 2 and although they will have the benefit of home grand advantage, we don’t see them being able to match up against the red and black. Like last week, the biggest mismatch will be in their defensive line where they will have a tough job in repelling what has become one of the most potent forward lines in the competition.


The Bombers will be coming into Round 2 with a lot of confidence after they downed one of the pre-season premiership favourites the Crows. They showed that they have the talent to go deep this year and will want to continue this momentum as they travel to Perth. The big question mark will be whether Merrett will play after suffering a knock in the first quarter last week that sidelined him for the rest of the game. Rumblings are that he should play, however even assuming Merrett is out, our model still gives the Bombers an advantage.

One thing going against the Bombers is that they haven’t won a game in Perth since 2013 but that stat also reflects that West Coast and Fremantle were relatively stronger teams during that period. We see this as the perfect opportunity for the Bombers to break their drought.

Betting Strategy

Our model has odds of $1.60 on the Bombers as value.

 BACK – Essendon

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